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Old 01-24-2013, 01:47 PM   #1
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Default The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

As some people can imagine that Federer will drop out of the Top 4 or even the Top 10, I decided to keep you up to date about the current odds.

After the first tournament in 2013, Federer has already secured his #68 spot in the year-end rankings(it is assumed that the cap for the top 68 stays the same). This spot is currently hold by Carlos Warlocq, so this can be considered a huge achievement already.

After AO finals, Dubai and Rotterdam, you will get the next update.
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:50 PM   #2
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

As you can see in my sig some people do believe Roger will fall out of the top 10. Can't wait until Roger secures that. Should take him third of the year or less.
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Old 01-24-2013, 01:55 PM   #3
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

I dont think he can fall out of the top 4 . He is too consistant for that
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:01 PM   #4
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Ferrer is 4th, for god sake
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:05 PM   #5
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Some people thought it before Nadals injury, Delpos muginess and so forth.


The problems of other players have bought Federer another year in top4 most likely. Still he's not immune himself and as the Nadal case shows all it takes is to miss half a season and you're out of top4.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:08 PM   #6
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Mug View Post
As some people can imagine that Federer will drop out of the Top 4 or even the Top 10, I decided to keep you up to date about the current odds.

After the first tournament in 2013, Federer has already secured his #68 spot in the year-end rankings(it is assumed that the cap for the top 68 stays the same). This spot is currently hold by Carlos Warlocq, so this can be considered a huge achievement already.

After AO finals, Dubai and Rotterdam, you will get the next update.
What... Are you using my live race rankings to do the calculations? Or if not, what system are you using, and why?
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:10 PM   #7
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Yeah in this powerful era, I bet he's out of top 10 at years end.








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Old 01-24-2013, 02:11 PM   #8
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

At the moment, he's guaranteed the top-4 until the end of Madrid.

I can imagine Nadal getting ahead of him, I can imagine Ferrer getting ahead of him, but to leave out of the top-4, one needs both of them (or another guy like Del Po or Berdych) to get ahead of him, which is tougher.

Anyway, it's very very important that he can keep that as long as possible to prolonge his chances for slams and then also maybe to prolonge his carreer. Connors kept it regularly until 34 years old, I hope Fed can do the same.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:13 PM   #9
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slasher1985 View Post
What... Are you using my live race rankings to do the calculations? Or if not, what system are you using, and why?
simple : he has 720 points in the Race at the moment and in the ATP-rankings, 720 points gives a player ranked 68.

Nothing "100% guaranteed" really but a very proper way to do from my own experience.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:21 PM   #10
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Thanks duong.

The current cutoff is actually 69/70, held by both Berlocq and Zeballos (the live rankings).
The 2012 YE rankings of the player that had 720 points was 65 (Tatsuma Ito).
In 2011, the cutoff was 66 (Igor Kunitsyn).
In 2010, the cutoff was 68 (Fernando Gonzales).
And in 2009, the cutoff was 61 (Marat Safin).

The average position of the last 5 years for the player that had 720 points is 65.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:25 PM   #11
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Great thread!!

Keep it updated.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:38 PM   #12
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

Whos going to overtake him? Ferrer?
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:45 PM   #13
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

lol he will be top 4 until his last day of tennis. Fools like ferrer, tsonga, berdych, potro won't beat him more than he beat them every season.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:50 PM   #14
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

so what?



.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:50 PM   #15
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Default Re: The "Federer will drop out of the Top 4" thread

heyday Nadal already drop out of the Top 4


.
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Nadal "Sampras, Ivanisevic match. or one between those kind of players, is not enjoyable. It's not really tennis. it is a few swings of the racquet. For me in the past it was just serve. serve" smug arrogant.

clay excluded. successive win 0.  If grass and a hard are fast. Like Sampras era. Nadal is able to win only with clay. power of defense and muscles. boring ugly. All the surface is slow now.

fake time-out. cheat. gamesmanship. too noisy annoying always. excuse. boycotts threatened. always dissatisfaction cry complaints. dissatisfaction to schedule. selfish two-year ranking. bump to player. ugly protest. always exaggerated appeal of self condition. etc. overrated by fanatic arrogant blind fan
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