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Old 01-23-2013, 07:47 AM   #1
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Default Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Another set of utterly predictable SF's is coming up. The dominance of the big 4 has given a feel of monotomy to the ATP to me. IMO this started with the rise of Federer. I decided to do an analysis on GS and Masters winners to see if the number of different winners each year has indeed declined, causing less excitement for somewhat neutral tennisfans like me.

I would like to ask that people try to refrain from comments about courtspeed and general tardism. These are numbers that simply show how many different GS-winners, masters series winners and winners of the 2 combined there have been each year since 1990 (quite an arbitrary number I know).
There are ofcourse a maximum of 4 different GS winners, 10 different masters series winners, so that makes for a total of 14 tournaments, possibly resulting in 14 different winners (this ofc never happened).

I can't enclose the PDF file, so if interested PM me. For the lazy people I will show some interesting numbers here.

- The maximum of different winners in 1 year is 10. This happened 5 times in total (1990, 1991, 1996, 1997, 2002)
- The minimum of different winners in 1 year is 4. This happened 2 times (2007, 2011)
- The average number of different winners between 1990-2000 is 9.3
- The average number of different winners between 2000-2010 is 6.6
- The average number of different winners the last 2 years is 4.5
- The average number of different winners since Fed's first GS win in 2003 til now is 5.09
- The average number of different winners before 2003 is 8.61


As you can see there is an enormous difference in the number of different winners at the GS and MS tournaments. This started mostly when Federer began his dominance and is currently at its peak. These numbers ofcourse don't say anything we did not already know. I hope we will return to times with less domination, because to me, this is all quite boring.
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File Type: pdf analysis GS and MS data.pdf (60.8 KB, 21 views)
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Old 01-23-2013, 08:03 AM   #2
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Tards that watch tennis for few years love it
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Old 01-23-2013, 01:43 PM   #3
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

between 2003-2007 federer won everything which explains the lower number

around that time the faster courts were being phased out- which benefitted pushers and moonballers

federer would have done just as well on fast surfaces

dull wouldnt

egg started off as a promising attacking player who had a stamina issue (he retired if he ever got slightly tired)

suddenly (miraculously) with the power of gluten free diets- he became the best athlete in tennis history
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Old 01-23-2013, 02:13 PM   #4
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Quote:
Originally Posted by pray-for-palestine-and-israel View Post
between 2003-2007 federer won everything which explains the lower number

around that time the faster courts were being phased out- which benefitted pushers and moonballers
The only Masters Event with a significant change in surface last 10 years is Paris.

Madrid is a little faster than Hamburg was.
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Old 01-23-2013, 03:12 PM   #5
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

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Originally Posted by bjurra View Post
The only Masters Event with a significant change in surface last 10 years is Paris.

Madrid is a little faster than Hamburg was.
Were IW and Miami this slow 10 years ago?
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Old 01-23-2013, 03:12 PM   #6
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjurra View Post
The only Masters Event with a significant change in surface last 10 years is Paris.

Madrid is a little faster than Hamburg was.
If you include GS, AO, USO and Wimbledon slow down in the 2000's. AO from Rebound Ace to Plexicushion. USO's surface was slow down twice in 2001 and 2003. Wimbledon's grass was slow down in 2000 with the change of composition of grass.

Anyway, the fact the the game became more physical with Nadal, Murray and Djokovic explain why those players could be in the top 20 very young and stay here very long. When you see today where are Federer and Ferrer today, you can think they could be in the top until they're 32-33. The peak of a career which was 24-25 before is now more 27-28 if you ask me.

My opinion is that fewer potential winners of big tournament, fewer game styles, fewer surfaces are a bad thing for the game. Of course, it's not good neither when you have 10 winners of 14 big events in the year like in 2002 with no dominating players. A good thing would be an equilibrium between those two situations with 6-7 differents players able to win each GS, with different styles of play...
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Old 01-23-2013, 03:14 PM   #7
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

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Originally Posted by bjurra View Post
Madrid is a little faster than Hamburg was.
But wasn't Madrid also lower-bouncing?
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Old 01-23-2013, 04:18 PM   #8
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

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But wasn't Madrid also lower-bouncing?
The Madrid HC event was slightly faster than Shanghai, I think mostly due to the location being higher and dryer.

But I was comparing Madrid clay to Hamburg clay in my post. The Hamburg event was very slow.
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Old 01-23-2013, 04:22 PM   #9
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

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Originally Posted by motorhead View Post
Were IW and Miami this slow 10 years ago?
I first visited IW and Miami in 2005 and the surfaces are definitely the same now. There are plenty of youtube clips from Miami 2000- 2004. Does the surface look fast in this clip from 2002?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INLYCn4PSBw
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Old 01-23-2013, 04:55 PM   #10
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Quote:
Originally Posted by pray-for-palestine-and-israel View Post
between 2003-2007 federer won everything which explains the lower number

around that time the faster courts were being phased out- which benefitted pushers and moonballers

federer would have done just as well on fast surfaces

dull wouldnt

egg started off as a promising attacking player who had a stamina issue (he retired if he ever got slightly tired)

suddenly (miraculously) with the power of gluten free diets- he became the best athlete in tennis history
Wow! The OP respectfully asks for the tards to stay away and the Sub-Zero-IQ Fedturd shows up insulting players who own his fake idol left and right! Good job, douche!

The Masters tournaments have been around for only 23 years so drawing conclusions solely based on those results doesn't paint the whole picture.
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:08 PM   #11
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

since I am a tard it took me kind of long to figure out how to enclose the file. It is done now
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:09 PM   #12
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adri89 View Post
If you include GS, AO, USO and Wimbledon slow down in the 2000's. AO from Rebound Ace to Plexicushion. USO's surface was slow down twice in 2001 and 2003. Wimbledon's grass was slow down in 2000 with the change of composition of grass.

Anyway, the fact the the game became more physical with Nadal, Murray and Djokovic explain why those players could be in the top 20 very young and stay here very long. When you see today where are Federer and Ferrer today, you can think they could be in the top until they're 32-33. The peak of a career which was 24-25 before is now more 27-28 if you ask me.

My opinion is that fewer potential winners of big tournament, fewer game styles, fewer surfaces are a bad thing for the game. Of course, it's not good neither when you have 10 winners of 14 big events in the year like in 2002 with no dominating players. A good thing would be an equilibrium between those two situations with 6-7 differents players able to win each GS, with different styles of play...
agree with this fully ofc Very interesting point you make about peak age, I will see if I can look into that aswell. I've just aqcuired a version of SPSS so I will start analysing more thoroughly!
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Old 01-23-2013, 06:16 PM   #13
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adri89 View Post
If you include GS, AO, USO and Wimbledon slow down in the 2000's. AO from Rebound Ace to Plexicushion. USO's surface was slow down twice in 2001 and 2003. Wimbledon's grass was slow down in 2000 with the change of composition of grass.

Anyway, the fact the the game became more physical with Nadal, Murray and Djokovic explain why those players could be in the top 20 very young and stay here very long. When you see today where are Federer and Ferrer today, you can think they could be in the top until they're 32-33. The peak of a career which was 24-25 before is now more 27-28 if you ask me.

My opinion is that fewer potential winners of big tournament, fewer game styles, fewer surfaces are a bad thing for the game. Of course, it's not good neither when you have 10 winners of 14 big events in the year like in 2002 with no dominating players. A good thing would be an equilibrium between those two situations with 6-7 differents players able to win each GS, with different styles of play...
I'm pretty sure rebound-ace was slower than plexicushion. I remember because at the time some pundits were noting that the AO was getting closer to medium pace rather than medium-slow and thus was getting closer to the USO. Rebound ace was undeniably stickier and held the ball up more from what I've seen.
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Old 01-24-2013, 12:33 AM   #14
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjurra View Post
The Madrid HC event was slightly faster than Shanghai, I think mostly due to the location being higher and dryer.

But I was comparing Madrid clay to Hamburg clay in my post. The Hamburg event was very slow.
Sorry, I meant Hamburg, not Madrid. Wasn't Hamburg exceptionally low-bouncing, partly explaining Fed's success there?
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Old 01-24-2013, 12:45 AM   #15
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Default Re: Analysis of GS and Masters results since 1990

They moved the semifinals from ESPN2 to ESPN, presumably because they expect higher ratings. Do you think they would have done that if the semifinals were Tsonga-Chardy and Wawrinka-Almugro? I agree that the current situation is not good, there's too much money in marketing top players and "the greatest ever" to do anything about it. All we can hope is Federer wins as many slams as he can before he retires to minimize the damage to tennis records (how ridiculous would it be if all the top guys got a career slam, broke the old SF streak record of 10, and all broke multi-surface records the way Fed, Nadull, and now Fakervic have done). Especially with the inevitable fallout in a decade that cycling is going through now, all we can hope is that the minimum damage to tennis records is done until something changes.
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