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View Poll Results: Will he?

Yeh, you go Dave! 36 25.53%
Nah, not this time. Still a great player though 105 74.47%
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Old 06-04-2013, 08:20 PM   #196
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustavo Kuerten View Post
50 + 0.5 + 20 + 60 + 70 / 5 = 40,1% chance Ferrer will win Roland Garros
Lol. That's so not how that works.
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Old 06-04-2013, 08:28 PM   #197
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by MichaelKrep View Post
Lol. That's so not how that works.
I'd love to know how he got there
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Old 06-04-2013, 08:36 PM   #198
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Federer in 2 View Post
Quite a mathematician we've got here

Stick to your day job.
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Lol. That's so not how that works.


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Old 06-04-2013, 08:39 PM   #199
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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I'd love to know how he got there
He just straight up averaged the five probabilities.
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Old 06-04-2013, 08:41 PM   #200
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustavo Kuerten View Post
50 + 0.5 + 20 + 60 + 70 / 5 = 40,1% chance Ferrer will win Roland Garros
That's not how that math works, because winning the final is dependent on having won the semi-final. So it would be 0.5(0.5+20+60+70/4)
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Old 06-04-2013, 08:47 PM   #201
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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That's not how that math works, because winning the final is dependent on having won the semi-final. So it would be 0.5(0.5+20+60+70/4)
That's not right either, as you have made the (false) assumption that each of Nadal, Djokovic, Haas and Wawrinka have 25% chance to reach the final from the top half...
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:08 PM   #202
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

Not this year or any year.
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:15 PM   #203
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Federer in 2 View Post
That's not right either, as you have made the (false) assumption that each of Nadal, Djokovic, Haas and Wawrinka have 25% chance to reach the final from the top half...
Assume Nadal has 4 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Djokovic has 3 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Wawrinka has equal chance of reaching the final as Haas.

So it would be [(0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 60 + 70) / 4 ] * 0.5

This is equal to 24%

Which is almost 25%, or one-quarter, and since he is in the semis that makes sense
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:23 PM   #204
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Unforced Terror View Post
Assume Nadal has 4 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Djokovic has 3 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Wawrinka has equal chance of reaching the final as Haas.

So it would be [(0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 60 + 70) / 4 ] * 0.5

This is equal to 24%

Which is almost 25%, or one-quarter, and since he is in the semis that makes sense
That doesn't make any sense considering Ferrer has such a small chance of beating Nadal or Djokovic.

You divided by 4 in your equation when it should be 9 because you added 9 numbers. If you divide by 9 instead then you get 10 2/3%

That sounds right to me.
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:24 PM   #205
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Unforced Terror View Post
Assume Nadal has 4 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Djokovic has 3 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Wawrinka has equal chance of reaching the final as Haas.

So it would be [(0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 60 + 70) / 4 ] * 0.5

This is equal to 24%

Which is almost 25%, or one-quarter, and since he is in the semis that makes sense
That 4 needs to be a 9, then it would be correct.

It equals:

[0.5*(4/9) + 20*(3/9) + 60*(1/9) + 70*(1/9)] * 0.5 = 10.66%
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:25 PM   #206
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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That doesn't make any sense considering Ferrer has such a small chance of beating Nadal or Djokovic.

You divided by 4 in your equation when it should be 9 because you added 9 numbers. If you divide by 9 instead then you get 10 2/3%

That sounds right to me.
This is correct.
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:30 PM   #207
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Freak3yman84 View Post
That doesn't make any sense considering Ferrer has such a small chance of beating Nadal or Djokovic.

You divided by 4 in your equation when it should be 9 because you added 9 numbers. If you divide by 9 instead then you get 10 2/3%

That sounds right to me.
This is correct. 10 2/3%. Silly mathematical error I made.

Only catch is that I made all the statistics up
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:40 PM   #208
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

How did this thread turn into a math class?
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:42 PM   #209
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How did this thread turn into a math class?
Shhh. Cool kids are talking now.
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:44 PM   #210
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

You never know, the stars may be aligning. It would be an amazing story if Ferrer actually won, I think everyone haters or not would agree.
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