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View Poll Results: Will he?

Yeh, you go Dave! 36 25.53%
Nah, not this time. Still a great player though 105 74.47%
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:20 PM   #196
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustavo Kuerten View Post
50 + 0.5 + 20 + 60 + 70 / 5 = 40,1% chance Ferrer will win Roland Garros
Lol. That's so not how that works.
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:28 PM   #197
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by MichaelKrep View Post
Lol. That's so not how that works.
I'd love to know how he got there
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:36 PM   #198
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Quite a mathematician we've got here

Stick to your day job.
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Lol. That's so not how that works.


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Old 06-04-2013, 09:39 PM   #199
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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I'd love to know how he got there
He just straight up averaged the five probabilities.
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:41 PM   #200
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustavo Kuerten View Post
50 + 0.5 + 20 + 60 + 70 / 5 = 40,1% chance Ferrer will win Roland Garros
That's not how that math works, because winning the final is dependent on having won the semi-final. So it would be 0.5(0.5+20+60+70/4)
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Old 06-04-2013, 09:47 PM   #201
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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That's not how that math works, because winning the final is dependent on having won the semi-final. So it would be 0.5(0.5+20+60+70/4)
That's not right either, as you have made the (false) assumption that each of Nadal, Djokovic, Haas and Wawrinka have 25% chance to reach the final from the top half...
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:08 PM   #202
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

Not this year or any year.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:15 PM   #203
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Federer in 2 View Post
That's not right either, as you have made the (false) assumption that each of Nadal, Djokovic, Haas and Wawrinka have 25% chance to reach the final from the top half...
Assume Nadal has 4 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Djokovic has 3 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Wawrinka has equal chance of reaching the final as Haas.

So it would be [(0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 60 + 70) / 4 ] * 0.5

This is equal to 24%

Which is almost 25%, or one-quarter, and since he is in the semis that makes sense
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:23 PM   #204
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Assume Nadal has 4 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Djokovic has 3 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Wawrinka has equal chance of reaching the final as Haas.

So it would be [(0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 60 + 70) / 4 ] * 0.5

This is equal to 24%

Which is almost 25%, or one-quarter, and since he is in the semis that makes sense
That doesn't make any sense considering Ferrer has such a small chance of beating Nadal or Djokovic.

You divided by 4 in your equation when it should be 9 because you added 9 numbers. If you divide by 9 instead then you get 10 2/3%

That sounds right to me.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:24 PM   #205
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Unforced Terror View Post
Assume Nadal has 4 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Djokovic has 3 times the chance of reaching the final as Haas, and Wawrinka has equal chance of reaching the final as Haas.

So it would be [(0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 60 + 70) / 4 ] * 0.5

This is equal to 24%

Which is almost 25%, or one-quarter, and since he is in the semis that makes sense
That 4 needs to be a 9, then it would be correct.

It equals:

[0.5*(4/9) + 20*(3/9) + 60*(1/9) + 70*(1/9)] * 0.5 = 10.66%
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:25 PM   #206
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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That doesn't make any sense considering Ferrer has such a small chance of beating Nadal or Djokovic.

You divided by 4 in your equation when it should be 9 because you added 9 numbers. If you divide by 9 instead then you get 10 2/3%

That sounds right to me.
This is correct.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:30 PM   #207
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

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Originally Posted by Freak3yman84 View Post
That doesn't make any sense considering Ferrer has such a small chance of beating Nadal or Djokovic.

You divided by 4 in your equation when it should be 9 because you added 9 numbers. If you divide by 9 instead then you get 10 2/3%

That sounds right to me.
This is correct. 10 2/3%. Silly mathematical error I made.

Only catch is that I made all the statistics up
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There is also the fallacious argument that a person is "free to express their opinion". This is just a restatement of the mythical "free speech" concept where speech carries no consequences.

The only way something can have no consequences is if it has no effect. The only way something can have no effect is if it doesn't exist. It's completely paradoxical, therefore, to claim that something can exist and simultaneously have no effect.

People are not "free" to express an opinion. Instead, if they choose to express anything, they choose to pay the price. The price is the effect on others and the effect on the person. There is no free lunch in this world.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:40 PM   #208
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

How did this thread turn into a math class?
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:42 PM   #209
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How did this thread turn into a math class?
Shhh. Cool kids are talking now.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:44 PM   #210
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Default Re: Will Ferrer win a slam this year?

You never know, the stars may be aligning. It would be an amazing story if Ferrer actually won, I think everyone haters or not would agree.
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