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Old 12-28-2012, 02:21 AM   #1
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Default Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Betfair usually has the best odds and here's what they have for the title - top 10 favorites.

Djokovic - 2.54
Murray - 4.9
Federer - 6.6
Nadal - 11
Del Potro - 18

Ferrer - 42
Berdych - 75
Tsonga - 85
Raonic - 120
Janowicz - 130



I mostly agree with the top 5 - although I believe Murray and Federer should at least be closer - and agree that they should be far ahead of the rest, but after that it's a bit bizarre. Ferrer (far) ahead of Berdych and Tsonga - who reached the final here in 2008 and beat all of the top 4 at AO bar Federer? Janowicz as one of the top 10 favorites?
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Old 12-28-2012, 02:26 AM   #2
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
Betfair usually has the best odds and here's what they have for the title - top 10 favorites.

Djokovic - 2.54
Murray - 4.9
Federer - 6.6
Nadal - 11
Del Potro - 18

Ferrer - 42
Berdych - 75
Tsonga - 85
Raonic - 120
Janowicz - 130



I mostly agree with the top 5 - although I believe Murray and Federer should at least be closer - and agree that they should be far ahead of the rest, but after that it's a bit bizarre. Ferrer (far) ahead of Berdych and Tsonga - who reached the final here in 2008 and beat all of the top 4 at AO bar Federer? Janowicz as one of the top 10 favorites?
I agree with you that it's strange Murray has considerably better odds than Federer, we don't know how Murray handles pressure and despite what he's said recently about not feeling any, there definitely is a good amount to preform well on your follow up season to winning a grand slam
and of course Federer with his track record is pretty reliable so hm

also as much as I have faith in Janowicz making a good grand slam run at some point, top 10 in the bookies bets is absurd for someone so unproven
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Old 12-28-2012, 02:27 AM   #3
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
Janowicz as one of the top 10 favorites?
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Old 12-28-2012, 02:48 AM   #4
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Yeah I agree with the top 5. All that matters anyway.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:06 AM   #5
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

dull ahead of GOATro is the biggest face palm of them all
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:09 AM   #6
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

I agree with the top 5 though Nadal should be higher IMHO
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:10 AM   #7
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by End da Game View Post
dull ahead of GOATro is the biggest face palm of them all
Due to his seeding, Delpo will have to face a top 4 player, even possibly Djokovic, in the quarter finals. That surely affects his odds negatively in comparison to Nadal. Will be interesting to see how the odds shift if Nadal and Delpo are drawn in the same quarter.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:13 AM   #8
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Default

So if I were to bet a million dollars on "not Janowicz" what'd i get?
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:18 AM   #9
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by End da Game View Post
dull ahead of GOATro is the biggest face palm of them all
It is a guessing game for either of them really. For Del Potro, could he actually do it (again)? For Nadal, what is his level? No one really knows about either.
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Old 12-28-2012, 03:28 AM   #10
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

It's important to understand that the caliber of opponent they will face in QF is completely different.

Nadal will be drawn either with a complete non factor like Ferrer, Berdych - great player, but Nadal is a nightmare matchup for him -, or Tsonga - could potentially beat Nadal, but is the most erratic player in the top 10 and could simply flame out early or throw in a shocking performance, especially considering late 2012 form. In other words, unless he gets Delpo in his quarter, Nadal is a safe bet to be in the semis.

Delpo on the other hand could get Djokovic, Murray or Federer (75% chance actually), the three main favorite for the event, and he'd be the underdog against all of them, especially Nole. That is why Nadal's odds are soundly better - will be interesting to see whether/how they shift if Nadal and JMDP are drawn in the same quarter.
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Old 12-28-2012, 05:27 AM   #11
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by djokovicgonzalez View Post
So if I were to bet a million dollars on "not Janowicz" what'd i get?
$130 million if he won, a life of debt if he loses.

I agree with the disparity between Murray's and Federer's odds. Federer is only 2-5 against top 4 opponents at the AO. One of those was Juan Carlos Ferrero in 2004 and the other was a choking Murray in the 2010 final.

Murray is only 1-4 in this regard, but he came very close to beating Djokovic in the semi-finals this year, and had impressive finals runs in 2010 and 2011.
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Old 12-28-2012, 07:30 AM   #12
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

I'd put Fed a "little closer" to Murray.
As you said, Mark, that gap is pretty big, even if it isn't.

But then... Yeah, Delpo is playing in a great level so it's understandable to be there again like in the old times.

But if we consider Ferrer won Paris, it's pretty rare his gap between him and Delpo is that big.
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Old 12-28-2012, 08:10 AM   #13
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

2.55 for Nole is better.
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Old 12-28-2012, 08:19 AM   #14
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Federer underrated, Nadal way more underrated. Berdych or Tsonga ahead of Ferrer would be absurd. At the Ferrer-Berdych match at DC final it was the first time in a long time that Ferrer had favorable odds. I guess since then they are catching up a bit.
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Old 12-28-2012, 08:20 AM   #15
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Ferrer should be as short as DP.
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