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Old 03-10-2013, 03:34 PM   #1
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Default Request - Evidence for peak years

Hi everyone!
I want to find statistical bdata for when are the peak years of tennis players. However, I don't have that kind of access to large data samples (or it would take me forever to collect them), but I know that some of you guys know how to do this stuff...

So here is what I am interested in:

Find the number of players in the year end Top-50 rankings (1980-2012) for the following age groups:

17-19 years
20-22 years
23-25 years
26-28 years
29-31 years
32-34 years

So in the live rankings of this week, this would look as follow for the Top 50:

17-19 years: 0 (0%)
20-22 years: 5 (10%)
23-25 years: 11 (22%)
26-28 years: 19 (38%)
29-31 years: 13 (26%)
32-34 years: 2 (4%)

And or the Top 20:

17-19 years: 0 (0%)
20-22 years: 1 (5%)
23-25 years: 5 (25%)
26-28 years: 11 (55%)
29-31 years: 2 (10%)
32-34 years: 1 (5%)


This should give some interesting insights, I think, when done for several years. For example, when is the real peak age of a tennis player and how has it changed over time? Also, alternatively, one could only look at Top-20 obviously instead of Top-50.

Or maybe this questions has already been answered somewhere?

Thanks a lot in any case!
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Old 03-10-2013, 03:42 PM   #2
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

hang it all

peak year is when a playa wins Texas Open
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Old 03-10-2013, 03:55 PM   #3
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Distribution of ranking peaks for players born between 1979-1982 that reached top ~400ish.

Code:
18	1
19	2
20	14
21	29
22	27
23	41
24	52
25	54
26	29
27	31
28	28
29	12
30	15
31	1
32	1
33	0
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Old 03-10-2013, 04:01 PM   #4
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Maybe I'm missing the point here, but this seems a bit sketchy.
So, right now the "peak years" for a tennis player is 26-28, just because that's the largest group in top 20 and top 50?
Doesn't really make sense, does it?

Peak years for me is when a player is at the top of his ability - in other words achieving his highest ranking and performing his best in Slams.
I don't think these numbers would reflect that. Maybe if you narrowed it down to top 5 or something.
But I think it would more give a hint of how good different generations are at different times.

More accurate would perhaps be to single out a peak year for every player: For example:
Nadal: 2008 or maybe 2010 (22 years or 24)
Federer: 2006 (25)
Djokovic: 2011 (24)
Murray: 2012 (25)

Do this for all top 10 players in the last 30 years and see what the average peak year would be. My guess is 24-25.
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Last edited by jonas : 03-10-2013 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 03-10-2013, 04:23 PM   #5
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Isn't that what Lurking's stats also show? If I'm reading correctly, of the sample size he used (337 players), 1% peaked at 17-19, 21% peaked at 20-22, 44% peaked at 23-25, 26% peaked at 26-28, 8% peaked at 29-31, <1% peaked at 32+ (note that some of these 337 players haven't even reached this age yet).

One problem I can see is that a player like Federer will probably be counted as peaking at the earliest age (22) of reaching #1, whilst his peak was also reached at the ago of 31. Which of those #1 ranks was his peak?
Similarly, did David Ferrer peak at the age of 25 (first time reaching #4) or is his peak at the age of 31, providing he holds on to #4 for another month?
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Old 03-10-2013, 05:45 PM   #6
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Depends on the player. Genetics, biology and all that jazz. Because of differences between different ethnic/racial groups (some hit puberty a couple of years earlier and reach their physical peak faster accordingly), the involvement of mental toughness, experience, injuries, a varying number of world class players on Tour at a given year, you're going to get a useless number in the end. We can all guess the approximate average peak of a tennis player, give or take a couple of years even without statistical analysis.
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Old 03-10-2013, 09:48 PM   #7
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

It is more about mileage than about age, imo. In the history of the game, you see guys like Chang winning RG at 17, and never winning a slam again. Then you have guys like Tilden or Rosewall winning slams well past 30. Then you have guys like Fed winning past 30, or Nadal winning at 19, or Tommy Ass playing his best at 34

So it is all relative. Generally a player gets 12-15 years on tour. Sampras for example 17-32. Roddick only played until 30. Then you have Agassi who played from 16-36 It all depends on fitness, motivation, and who you choose as your wife and when you decide to start a family.
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Old 03-10-2013, 09:50 PM   #8
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

24-25.
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:03 AM   #9
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Peak years

Djokovic 2011
Nadal 2010
Murray 2012
Federer 2012
Ferrer 2012
DelPotro 2009(july-sept)
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:09 AM   #10
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Quote:
Originally Posted by bouncer7 View Post
Peak years

Djokovic 2011
Nadal 2010
Murray 2012
Federer 2012
Ferrer 2012
DelPotro 2009(july-sept)
Federer played better, far better from 2004-2006.
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:22 AM   #11
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

lol @ Federer's peak year being 2012. Did you not watch tennis before 2008?
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Old 03-11-2013, 12:54 AM   #12
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

30 - 40 will be peak years when Johnny Groove shows up.
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Old 03-11-2013, 01:06 AM   #13
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

Quote:
Originally Posted by Han Solo View Post
Federer played better, far better from 2004-2006.
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Old 03-11-2013, 01:14 AM   #14
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

This is a serious and interesting thread, and yet trolls like bouncer can't wait to ruin it.

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Old 03-11-2013, 01:59 AM   #15
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Default Re: Request - Evidence for peak years

I'd say the peak years for most players are between 23 and 27.
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