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Old 11-11-2012, 09:27 PM   #1
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Default Hasta-la-vista London Monday

I watched most of the Lopez/Granollers, Nielsen/Marray semi and what I found as most striking was the amount of break points ( i.e. decisive points ) the Danish/English duo squandered v the Spaniards. So although the straight sets win seems straightforward on paper the fact of the matter is that it wasn't as straightforward as most people think. However it's still more clear-cut than some of the other matches we've seen in this tournament, semi #1 included. I expect the Indian duo to be a more tight unit and much stronger in the big points than Nielsen/Marray were. Having said that I also expect a close match that can swing both ways, with me hoping that the Indians will have the last laugh.

Not much to say about the Djokovic/Federer main attraction, each one knows the other's game well enough, so there are few surprises and no much love lost between them. Federer is going for a London 3-peat while Djokovic is a very capable contender, the new number one and the year-end number one with something extra to prove. I wouldn't buy into Federer's relatively easy win v Murray in the semi. He looked second-best for most of the 1st set, somehow Murray failed to close the deal and then gave up mentally in the 2nd. Federer did play his best tennis this week in that one but the final is an entirely different matter. I count a lot on the Serbian's "true grit" when the going gets tough, a quality that he showcased once again in his match v Del Potro.

Also bear in mind that the bookies seem unfazed from what happened tonight and offer Djokovic on relatively lower-than-expected odds. I don't see a reason why I should be.


Mahesh Bhupathi & Bohan Bopanna to lift doubles title @ 1.80
Novak Djokovic to lift singles title @ 1.63, big bet
Djokovic -1.5 @ 1.80
Bhupathi/Bopanna x Djokovic double @ 2.85

Last edited by nastoff : 11-11-2012 at 10:03 PM. Reason: adding bets, editing, proofreading
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Old 11-12-2012, 03:32 AM   #2
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
I watched most of the Lopez/Granollers, Nielsen/Marray semi and what I found as most striking was the amount of break points ( i.e. decisive points ) the Danish/English duo squandered v the Spaniards. So although the straight sets win seems straightforward on paper the fact of the matter is that it wasn't as straightforward as most people think. However it's still more clear-cut than some of the other matches we've seen in this tournament, semi #1 included. I expect the Indian duo to be a more tight unit and much stronger in the big points than Nielsen/Marray were. Having said that I also expect a close match that can swing both ways, with me hoping that the Indians will have the last laugh.

Not much to say about the Djokovic/Federer main attraction, each one knows the other's game well enough, so there are few surprises and no much love lost between them. Federer is going for a London 3-peat while Djokovic is a very capable contender, the new number one and the year-end number one with something extra to prove. I wouldn't buy into Federer's relatively easy win v Murray in the semi. He looked second-best for most of the 1st set, somehow Murray failed to close the deal and then gave up mentally in the 2nd. Federer did play his best tennis this week in that one but the final is an entirely different matter. I count a lot on the Serbian's "true grit" when the going gets tough, a quality that he showcased once again in his match v Del Potro.

Also bear in mind that the bookies seem unfazed from what happened tonight and offer Djokovic on relatively lower-than-expected odds. I don't see a reason why I should be.


Mahesh Bhupathi & Bohan Bopanna to lift doubles title @ 1.80
Novak Djokovic to lift singles title @ 1.63, big bet
Djokovic -1.5 @ 1.80
Bhupathi/Bopanna x Djokovic double @ 2.85
Good luck Nastoff,love em all!

Indian Express 1.78 over Nielsen/Marray!

GL
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Old 11-12-2012, 08:25 AM   #3
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

This, to me, is the most important match of the year. Obviously, its not a Grand Slam final but it pits the world #1 against the world #2, both guys who have won a slam this year, guys who have split their 4 meetings at 2 apiece this year and the two men who have jockeyed for position to hold the world #1 ranking. The prize money is nothing to be ashamed of either as the winner will take home almost a million more dollars than the runner up and the winning prize is worth 1.7 million dollars which is more than 2 out of the 4 slams paid. In addition, we all know whats at stake as far as ranking points go. If Djokovic wins he has almost a 3000 point lead to hold onto the top spot and if Federer can hold on he'll still have some breathing room between himself and Murray for the #2 spot along with a shot at regaining the world #1 with an explosive effort in Melbourne.

What a win yesterday for Roger. It looked like it would be 3 in a row for Murray over Fed being up 3-1* 0-30, being just two points away from earning a double break, absolutely obliterating the world #2's second serve but Roger showed something in this one he hasn't show previously in a match against Murray. Federer made the needed adjustments, kept Murray guessing on second serve deliveries and served like the legend he is to get the break back, force a tiebreaker, and then just imposed his will on the Scot, who continued to show a lack of fighting spirit in a matches where he falls behind.

The key to any match for Federer against Djokovic and Murray is, without a doubt, how Roger serves. The Swiss #1 only served 54% yesterday but the key # was that he won 63% of his second serve deliveries which is excellent against a returner of Murray's caliber. In contrast, the two met in Shanghai about 3 weeks ago and although Fed served 58%, he only won 36% of second serves. Theres no stats from the Olympics where Federer played terribly by his standards but at Wimbledon, where I believe that through the first 3 sets both men played absolutely brilliant tennis, Federer served like a monster getting in 68% of his first serve offerings which was needed because on that day he only won 48% of his second serve points.

Fed and Nole have split 4 meetings this year with Fed getting dominated twice in 3 weeks on clay where I believe Djokovic holds a massive edge. Federer returned the favor with his second best win of the season beating the world #1 in 4 at Wimbledon and then of course the straight set victory in Cincinatti where Fed bageled a jaded Nole before having just enough to hold on in a second set tiebreaker. Clay statistics have absolutely zero bearing on this match since the two surfaces couldn't be anymore different so I'm going to look at the serve stats from Wimby and one of the fastest hard courts on the tour in Cincinatti.

At Wimby, Fed served 64%, winning a blistering 72% of his second serve points. In Cincy, Fed again was brilliant serving only 58% but again winning 65% of his second serve points. Djokovic is the best returner in the world, just slightly better than Murray, but I think he has much more difficulty reading Federer's serve than Murray does hence the Swiss maestro's 16-12 head to head advantage. In my humble opinion, theres two key numbers tomorrow for Federer and they both happen to be the same digit. 60%. If Federer serves 60%+ and wins 60+% of his second serve deliveries than he'll win in straight sets.

Federer has gone through these two back to back earlier this year. He did it when he beat Djokovic in the semis and Murray in the final at Wimbledon. The key then, again, was how brilliantly he served. Unfortunately for the Fed camp he's been under 60% all week except for against Delpo which ironically was the only match he lost in the round robin format. The reason? I think it was because Federer knows that JMDP can't hurt him on the return nearly as much as Murray, Ferrer, and Djokovic can so he gave himself more margin for error and benefited from having less pressure on his shoulders. Its all about the serve for Fed tomorrow.

Here's some other interesting numbers. Federer this year on indoor HC is 12-2. Djokovic is 4-1. We all know the success that Roger has had at this venue and the lack thereof for Djokovic. Nole has struggled to a 9-5 mark here with zero titles at the O2 including this year whereas Fed is 15-3 having won the event two years running. Make no mistake about it, not all hard courts are the same. Djokovic is the best hardcourt player in the world but its tough to argue that Fed is the best INDOOR hardcourt player on the planet. The surface in Australia, especially at night when these two meet, favors Djokovic big time. As we all know, Fed's groundies have a reduced impact on slower surfaces and since its easier to keep the ball in play he has to hit more shots, hence more errors. In fact heres a stat that will blow minds: In a 3 set loss to Nole at the French, Federer had 52 unforced errors. At Wimbledon, Federer had only 16 unforced errors in 4 sets. Absolutely astonishing. Today, the surface will call for a lot of quick points which means Federer has to hit fewer shots which, as we all know, means much fewer unforced errors.

No lead is ever safe against Nole something Federer has come to learn the hard way and although he's got a clean sheet this week against some pretty imposing competition he hasn't faced anyone like Federer. It won't be easy, but the bookies are pricing this match based on it being played on a slower hardcourt. On this surface were Federer is usually magnificent we're going to see a lot of quick rallies that Fed wins on serve and on the return he'll get plenty of chances to get ahead of Nole's serve and take very quick control of the point. As amazing as the Serb's retrieval skills are no one can defend for too long on this surface. In his third biggest win of the year Federer lifts yet another WTF trophy and ends another epic year the right way.

Roger Federer to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.4
Roger Federer +1.5 games over Novak Djokovic at 1.91
Roger Federer +2 games 1.80 over Novak Djokovic
Roger Federer +2.5 games 1.65 over Novak Djokovic
Roger Federer wins first set over Novak Djokovic at 2.15
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Old 11-12-2012, 11:15 AM   #4
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

The more I read about this match, the more I expect a Federer win. Did you guys know that Djokovic only has 4 career titles on indoor HC?

A plethora of losses throughout the years, since his epic 2011 season, before that when he was still top 3 and even before that when he was just coming onto the scene.

Lastly, Djokovic has dropped a set twice in this tournament. None against the highly inferior Berdych who he owns a 11-1 career record against and Tsonga who is playing the worst tennis he's played the last 5 years but even against those guys he needed a tiebreaker a piece.

If you look at Nole's dominant runs throughout his career he doesn't go to many tiebreakers let alone drops sets. At Wimbledon he dropped only 1 set in 4 matches before bowing out to Fed in the semis and didn't need a single tiebreaker to get there. At the US Open he went to 1 tiebreaker vs. Delpo, and dropped a set to Ferrer in absolutely abysmal conditions. Same story at the Aussie Open. One dropped set against Hewitt in the round of 16 and a tiebreaker against Ferrer in the semis before back to back 5 set wins over Muzza and Rafito.

I realize that playing top 10 competition is nothing compared to the first 3 rounds of a GS but no doubt that this surface doesn't exactly suit his game to a tee. Federer on the other hand couldn't have a court tailor made better suited to his game. Is all this enough for a Fed win? Unlike on clay and in Melbourne, Federer doesn't have to be flawless to win.
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Old 11-12-2012, 12:54 PM   #5
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Nice write ups Busterovic.

I rarely back Federer but today I like him to beat Nole as well.
Fed to beat Djokovic@2.3
Gl
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Old 11-12-2012, 01:37 PM   #6
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Fed 2-0 @ 4.10
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:09 PM   #7
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Current #1@1.67
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:11 PM   #8
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Good point from Busterovic about Djokovic's dominance on clay over Federer, if Djokovic manages to slow down the tempo - and this is exactly what I expect him to do - this extremely slow court in London will play a lot like clay. I didn't realise how slow this court plays by just watching a live stream but watching the game on TV is a real eye-opener. I think it's at least as slow as the AO center court, which speaks volumes considering it is indoors. In any case, I'm looking forward to a very exciting finale, and the fact that opinions are spilt is quite interesting. On paper Federer looks like he has the edge, but in reality I think Djokovic will come out victorious in this one. This is not a Serena-Azarenka showdown, where Azarenka knows beforehand that she's clear underdog in spite of being the no1...this is a confident Nole who knows that he's on the rise while his opponent may be on his way down. It's a perfect scenario for Nole to show who the boss is and compensate for a less-than-stellar year. Expect Nole to come out motivated on this one.
So may the best man win!
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:23 PM   #9
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

If I can use some of nastoff words: "It's a perfect scenario for .... to show who the boss is.."

I am bit affraid that this year is last chance for Rog to grab the WTF title.. every next year will be much more difficult for him. So for me last time WTF champion The King Rog @2.4
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:25 PM   #10
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

nole x steelers@1.88 gl fed backers most my money is on the nfl/nba lately but
its hard for me to watch a game w/o having some money on it and im never ever backing fed again ive backed fed once in the last 3 yrs and he layed an egg nice guy but i think he has no balls
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:35 PM   #11
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

ok, saying that the court plays like clay is a bit of a stretch but it's almost identical to AO's center court...I think the courts are getting slower every year and this is a bit worrying because the slower the court the less room for bold tactics/experimentation. It was extremely refreshing to see Llodra's s&v tactics in Paris and also to see Janowitz making those massive ballsy stroke winners. Now in this tournament they have all retreated back to their cages afraid to commit themselves. I hope they do something about the courts, otherwise there will come a point where all courts will play the same and it will be extremely boring. This is not a fast court by any stretch and the situation clearly favors Djokovic.
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Old 11-12-2012, 02:57 PM   #12
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

no, not murray

Berrer @ 2,0


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Old 11-12-2012, 07:13 PM   #13
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Right got Ł500 on Joker for 2-0 at 2.88.
I am trying to get matched for almost 6k on Joker to win but no joy as of yet so will be waiting for the in running, I am hoping for 1.8, taking a risk by not just accepting the 1.65 on offer but will hold out.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:19 PM   #14
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

Ok bet placed but fucked up and could have had 1.9, ah well I will forgive him when he wins, go Joker.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:24 PM   #15
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Default Re: Hasta-la-vista London Monday

good luck Mick for 6k on Novak, second set is crucial, first is almost gone..
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