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View Poll Results: How many slams will they win?

None 30 60.00%
Half a slam 2 4.00%
1 slams 15 30.00%
2 slams 0 0%
3 slams 0 0%
All 4 slams 3 6.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-03-2012, 12:22 AM   #16
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
How about the man on your avatar, nothing for him ?
Nope, no Slams for Ferrer, and probably no Masters either. This prediction about top 4 winning everything is the safest you can make.

Same thing goes for 2014
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:26 AM   #17
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Originally Posted by Bashkatik View Post
Nope, no Slams for Ferrer, and probably no Masters either. This prediction about top 4 winning everything is the safest you can make.

Same thing goes for 2014
I greatly disagree with that prediction, but I guess only time will tell what happens. The only way your prediction has even a remote chance of coming through though is Nadal and Federer not declining significantly (or getting injured in Nadal's case), no way are Djokovic and Murray great enough to keep the field at bay alone.
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:27 AM   #18
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

The question should be how many slams will players other than the current top 1 win. Calendar slam not out of the question.
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:30 AM   #19
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
Call me crazy, but I believe JMDP has the best chance of anyone to beat Nadal on clay. Nadal is a very good matchup for him. Remember their DC final on super slow Spanish clay? Delpo's fitness sucked at the time and he still breadsticked Nadal and was incredibly close to take it to 5.
Uhm... no. Djokovic in 2011 probably would have had a great shot, but that was also due to the fact that he was in Nadal's head, big time at that point. Del Potro isn't, so I can't see him beating Nadal on his turf, unless Nadal is somehow less of a beast once he returns. And even in his 2012 form I would still give Djokovic more of a shot than del Potro.

What are you talking about? His record against Nadal is 7-3. That's far from great. And none of his wins came on Clay anyway. It's arguable that he is the better player on hard court, but that's it. Another interesting fact is that all of del Potro's wins came in 2009, which was undoubtedly his best ever season and he hasn't reached such heights since (lost 3 in a row in 2011).
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:41 AM   #20
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Originally Posted by silver lining View Post
Uhm... no. Djokovic in 2011 probably would have had a great shot, but that was also due to the fact that he was in Nadal's head, big time at that point. Del Potro isn't, so I can't see him beating Nadal on his turf, unless Nadal is somehow less of a beast once he returns. And even in his 2012 form I would still give Djokovic more of a shot than del Potro.

What are you talking about? His record against Nadal is 7-3. That's far from great. And none of his wins came on Clay anyway. It's arguable that he is the better player on hard court, but that's it. Another interesting fact is that all of del Potro's wins came in 2009, which was undoubtedly his best ever season and he hasn't reached such heights since (lost 3 in a row in 2011).
Did you watch their DC match in 2011? Who has been closer to beat/take Nadal to 5 on a best of 5 clay match in the last few years (post Soderling) apart from Isner of course? That match would have got seriously hard (more than it was) for Rafa if Delpo's fitness wasn't crap at the time (and he hadn't played a grueling five setter with Ferrer two days earlier), the first 1.5 sets were probably the biggest beating Nadal ever took on the surface.

I know about their head-to-head, but I also watched all those matches, Nadal is definitely a good matcup for Juan. It was evident in their first four matches when Juan was a teenager outside the top 100(in the first three); although Nadal won them all, he had far more difficulties than the difference in ranking/level at the time would suggest. Last year was the same, he gave hell to Nadal at Wimbledon and even on clay despite his poor form throughout the year.

I'm by no means saying Del Potro will definitely beat Nadal at RG, or even that he'd be favorite (Nadal would be the clear favorite), but I do believe he has a shot, the best of anyone along/besides Djokovic anyway.
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:44 AM   #21
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

Warlocq decides.
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Old 10-03-2012, 12:45 AM   #22
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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I'm talking about beating as winning the match, not some sick sexual fetish or something
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:04 AM   #23
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Did you watch their DC match in 2011? Who has been closer to beat/take Nadal to 5 on a best of 5 clay match in the last few years (post Soderling) apart from Isner of course? That match would have got seriously hard (more than it was) for Rafa if Delpo's fitness wasn't crap at the time (and he hadn't played a grueling five setter with Ferrer two days earlier), the first 1.5 sets were probably the biggest beating Nadal ever took on the surface.

I know about their head-to-head, but I also watched all those matches, Nadal is definitely a good matcup for Juan. It was evident in their first four matches when Juan was a teenager outside the top 100(in the first three); although Nadal won them all, he had far more difficulties than the difference in ranking/level at the time would suggest. Last year was the same, he gave hell to Nadal at Wimbledon and even on clay despite his poor form throughout the year.

I'm by no means saying Del Potro will definitely beat Nadal at RG, or even that he'd be favorite (Nadal would be the clear favorite), but I do believe he has a shot, the best of anyone along/besides Djokovic anyway.
He lost the match, didn't he? Poor fitness or whatever else the reason, he lost. When he beats Nadal again, on any surface, we can start talking, until then this is a moot point. And considering Nadal is a far heavier favourite at RG than any other player at any other event, his chances there aren't all that great. Besides, he would have to get to Nadal first and he might have to beat Djokovic and/or Federer for that to happen. I'd say he is far more likely to win another USO title.

He lost 6 in a row to Federer this year, so let's stop pretending Nadal is the only obstacle here.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:15 AM   #24
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Originally Posted by silver lining View Post
He lost the match, didn't he? Poor fitness or whatever else the reason, he lost. When he beats Nadal again, on any surface, we can start talking, until then this is a moot point. And considering Nadal is a far heavier favourite at RG than any other player at any other event, his chances there aren't all that great. Besides, he would have to get to Nadal first and he might have to beat Djokovic and/or Federer for that to happen. I'd say he is far more likely to win another USO title.

He lost 6 in a row to Federer this year, so let's stop pretending Nadal is the only obstacle here.
Yup, he did lose the match. But if we are going to scratch everyone who lost to Nadal on clay/has losing records against Nadal on clay, might as well just hand him the trophy already. He lost the match, but not in a way that suggests he has no chance against Nadal on the surface. Maybe it was just me, but when watching it I felt he was very capable of beating Nadal on the surface (one day), the best chance of anyone on tour along/bar Nole.

He could face Nadal in QF (ie not have to go through Fed/Nole), I hope he does. Any path to the RG title (for JMDP or any other player) will necessarily involve Rafa, and facing him in the QF is a far less scary proposition than doing so in the final.

And yes, Nadal is far from the only obstacle, but when we're discussing a player's chances at Roland Garros how he matches up against Nadal is always important since Nadal has reign supreme there.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:29 AM   #25
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

He has never beaten Nadal on Clay. That's the difference. Both Federer and Djokovic have, which is why they are undoubtedly bigger favourites for the title than del Potro. Hence, according to the bookmakers even Murray is a bigger favourite than del Potro. Ferrer is a pretty good clay court player as well and even though he might not be capable of beating any of Nadal/Djokovic/Federer he is certainly able to win against del Potro.

If he beat Rafa in the QFs that would still leave the other two. I'm not saying he has no chance against Rafa, just that it's a very slim one. If you don't agree with that then you are delusional. Sorry.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:36 AM   #26
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Old 10-03-2012, 01:39 AM   #27
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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He has never beaten Nadal on Clay. That's the difference. Both Federer and Djokovic have, which is why they are undoubtedly bigger favourites for the title than del Potro. Hence, according to the bookmakers even Murray is a bigger favourite than del Potro. Ferrer is a pretty good clay court player as well and even though he might not be capable of beating any of Nadal/Djokovic/Federer he is certainly able to win against del Potro.

If he beat Rafa in the QFs that would still leave the other two. I'm not saying he has no chance against Rafa, just that it's a very slim one. If you don't agree with that then you are delusional. Sorry.
Yes, I never denied Federer and Djokovic were clearly bigger title favorites than Delpo (although the reason for it is not their matchup with Nadal, but their overall credentials on the surface/as overall players). When I said Del Potro had a good chance to win RG, I didn't mean he was the favorite or even second favorite behind Nadal, far from it. If healthy/in form, he'd at best the the fourth favorite.

I agree with that though. My 'claim' is not that Del Potro is a big favorite for the title, only that he has a chance (ie he can win it), of course winning it would require upsetting the odds as Nadal is the clear favorite for the title, followed by Djokovic and Federer. But I most definitely don't regard beating two of those three back to back at RG as an impossible task if he's healthy/in form. A mammoth task indeed, but not an impossible one.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:43 AM   #28
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

The only reason Del Bashtro is one of the "favorites" for RG is because clay got sped up. On proper clay his 180kph forehands would come back to him every time and force him into ues. His movement would also be exposed. Mindless ballbashers like berdshit and del mugtro reaching the second week of RG is easily the biggest disgrace of the game and a result of corrupt organizers trying to speed up clay in order to give Noserer more chances to win multiple RGs.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:52 AM   #29
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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The only reason Del Bashtro is one of the "favorites" for RG is because clay got sped up. On proper clay his 180kph forehands would come back to him every time and force him into ues. His movement would also be exposed. Mindless ballbashers like berdshit and del mugtro reaching the second week of RG is easily the biggest disgrace of the game and a result of corrupt organizers trying to speed up clay in order to give Noserer more chances to win multiple RGs.
BS. Take a look at these extended highlights of Nadal vs Del Potro on super slow Spanish clay and tell me JMDP can't play on slow claycourts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6_9O77E7TA The top rated commentary says it all: "Del Potro's forehand: the only shot that makes clay look fast."

Keep in mind this match took place on Nadal's home soil and at a time where JMDP's fitness sucked and he had just played (and lost ) a grueling five setter with Ferrer two days before. Nadal eventually grinded him out, but he was seriously overpowered for large chunks of the match.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:56 AM   #30
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Default Re: 2013- How many slams will players other than Top 4 win?

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Yes, I never denied Federer and Djokovic were clearly bigger title favorites than Delpo (although the reason for it is not their matchup with Nadal, but their overall credentials on the surface/as overall players). When I said Del Potro had a good chance to win RG, I didn't mean he was the favorite or even second favorite behind Nadal, far from it. If healthy/in form, he'd at best the the fourth favorite.

I agree with that though. My 'claim' is not that Del Potro is a big favorite for the title, only that he has a chance (ie he can win it), of course winning it would require upsetting the odds as Nadal is the clear favorite for the title, followed by Djokovic and Federer. But I most definitely don't regard beating two of those three back to back at RG as an impossible task if he's healthy/in form. A mammoth task indeed, but not an impossible one.
Quote:
Call me crazy, but I believe JMDP has the best chance of anyone to beat Nadal on clay. Nadal is a very good matchup for him. Remember their DC final on super slow Spanish clay? Delpo's fitness sucked at the time and he still breadsticked Nadal and was incredibly close to take it to 5.
No. Djokovic has the best chance of beating Nadal on clay, as he has actually done so before.

Good that we could clear that up.

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