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Old 09-17-2012, 09:29 AM   #16
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Would be nice to see another Nadal v Murray QF at the Aussie


We all know what happened last time
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:35 AM   #17
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Not happening.

If Nadal's injury takes him out Australia (which could well happen considering how long he's been out for already, although probably won't) he could fall as low as number 6.

The fact he won Rome MC Barca and FO so close together means he'll keep 4500 points until April which is enough to keep a player in the top 5, and possibly even the top 4.
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:52 AM   #18
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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How the hell will Ferrer manage to get 2K points in the rest of this year?
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Unlikely, Ferrer's still over 2000 points back.
Actually, there are 1425 points now. Nadal has 590 points to defend, so if he can't participate this season, Ferrer needs to make 835 points more than the points he has to defend (1540). Having said that, it would mean a bunch of very tough scenarios:

A. Winning Paris, Final in either Tokyo or Valencia, Semifinal in the other, Final in Shanghai, 400 points in the WTF.

B. Final in Paris, Winning Shanghai, Final in either Tokyo or Valencia, Semifinal in the other, 400 points in the WTF

C. Winning Valencia and Tokyo, SF in Paris, F in Shanghai, 600 points in WTF

D. Win WTF, SF in Valencia, Tokyo, Shanghai, QF in Paris.

And many many more...

Ferrer needs to make 2375 + 1 points in this part of the season to pass Nadal.
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:59 AM   #19
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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Tennis will certainly die if shitrer becomes ahead of Nadal in the rankings.
Indeed, Ferrer in the top 4 would be the final nail in tennis's coffin. But it won't happen.

The only possible threat to Rafa's #4 is Berdych or Delpo going on a tear in the indoor season - going deep in all events and winning a Masters and/or WTF. They'd still need about 3k points, so it's very, very unlikely. Rafa will remain #4.
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:01 AM   #20
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

If Rafa defended Roger points then yes it would maybe happen but the truth is that Nadal is an indoor mug and doesn't defend nearly enough points in this part of the season.


IF Nadal is injured during 2013 clay season....then his ranking would drop like a stone.
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:43 AM   #21
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Berdych and Del Potro are a lot more likely to do it.

Tsongs would have been my favourite to do it but he's way too far behind.
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:53 AM   #22
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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Berdych and Del Potro are a lot more likely to do it.

Tsongs would have been my favourite to do it but he's way too far behind.
Having even a 0.1% chance would make them more likely to do it. Ferrer is a reknowned indoor mug and has run out of vulture events to add to his ranking points, he'll be lucky to stay #5 let alone climb any further.

But this is a non-issue, Rafa will stay #4.

Last edited by Mark Lenders : 09-17-2012 at 11:00 AM.
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Old 09-17-2012, 10:58 AM   #23
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

No chance of Rafa losing #4 before the Aussie Open.
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Old 09-17-2012, 11:02 AM   #24
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010
Good thing Rafa avoided such a heinous streak by going out before the quarters at Wimbledon.
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Old 09-17-2012, 12:30 PM   #25
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

It certainly would make a Slam extremely interesting if any of the big four dropped out of it for a small period. Tsonga must have been close earlier on in the year?
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Old 09-17-2012, 12:34 PM   #26
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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It certainly would make a Slam extremely interesting if any of the big four dropped out of it for a small period. Tsonga must have been close earlier on in the year?
I don't think anyone outside of the top 4 has been within 1000 points of Murray since Soderling ().
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Old 09-17-2012, 12:39 PM   #27
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

80/1
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Old 09-17-2012, 12:40 PM   #28
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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I don't think anyone outside of the top 4 has been within 1000 points of Murray since Soderling ().
Ah right, yeah Soderling certainly was a huge threat at his peak. Perhaps Berdych can prove a better version of Soderling next year and go on to break the monopoly. Only player who has a chance I think.
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Old 09-17-2012, 12:47 PM   #29
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

I think the optimal time for Ferrer to overtake Nadal will be after Monte-Carlo.
Ferrer only has to defend QF at AO, his lesser clay court titles (which he will definitely defend) and QF at Miami.

Nadal has to defend F at AO, semis at both IW and Miami, and a title in Monte-Carlo.
I would say that he has a good chance at defend most, if not all of them but after an injury it's tough to suddenly get right back to making deep runs without any risk of upset.
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Old 09-17-2012, 01:10 PM   #30
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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No chance of Rafa losing #4 before the Aussie Open.
This.

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Ferrer is a reknowned indoor mug and has run out of vulture events to add to his ranking points, he'll be lucky to stay #5 let alone climb any further.


This "indoor mug" was TMC 2007 runer-up (lost to Fed)... And he was in WTF 2011 semis too.
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