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Old 09-17-2012, 04:10 AM   #1
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Default What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Here's the points earned in 2012 alone (as opposed to past 52 weeks used for ranking during the year)

Djokovic 9,910; Rogie 8,905; Rafa 6,840; Murray 6,730; Ferrer 4,735; Del Potro 3,750; Berdych 3,580; and Tsonga 2,745.

Murray will surpass Rafa of course as you can see, but, can Ferrer overake Rafa for #4? He's 2,105 behind Rafa now, but what are the odds he earns over 2,105 the rest of 2012?

It'd be kind of scary if Rafa enters the 2013 AO as the #5 seed. You know Djokovic, Rogie, Murray, and Ferrer would all be shaking in their boots wondering which one of them would draw Rafa in the *gulp* QF. It's not easy for Rafa either, he'd have to beat maybe Murray/Ferrer in the QF, Rogie in the SF, and Djokovic in the F.

So what are the odds 2012 the top 5 ends as: Djokovic, Rogie, Murray, Ferrer,and Rafa?

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Old 09-17-2012, 04:18 AM   #2
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

what's the point of speculating upon something we have no evidence for or against? until Nadal comes back (which is likely the end of this season or start of next) we have nothing to judge. strange thing to ask, it's like asking if someone thinks next summer will be hotter, there is nothing to use to gauge. Nadal has been absent yes, but until he comes back onto tour speculation is pointless
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Old 09-17-2012, 04:19 AM   #3
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Default

Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010
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Old 09-17-2012, 04:24 AM   #4
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

If Rafa is indeed #5 seed at the 2013 AO and draws Rogie in the QF, imagine if he beats him, it would end Rogie's streak (2004-2012 so far) of 9 consecutive years of the SF or better at the AO. I don't think it would behoove Rafa to come back in 2012 on hard courts (mostly indoors ones where he doesn't do well anyway). Rafa's only realistic option is to play the DC final against the Czech Republic, but it's not in Spain and won't be on red clay most likely anyway. I say rest up until either Abu Dhabi, Doha, another warm up, or come back at the 2013 AO itself.
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Old 09-17-2012, 05:18 AM   #5
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

depending on how many points Ferrer can get for the rest of the year, it's maybe more likely to happen after the 2013 AO. Nadal has to defend finalist points, and that's not easy, especially after a long injury layoff.
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Old 09-17-2012, 05:24 AM   #6
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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Originally Posted by Kat_YYZ View Post
depending on how many points Ferrer can get for the rest of the year, it's maybe more likely to happen after the 2013 AO. Nadal has to defend finalist points, and that's not easy, especially after a long injury layoff.
Agreed. Don't think Ferrer will get 2000+ points from the Asian swing and indoor season but after the Aus Open Rafa may fall as he's defending 1200 finalist points. An early loss would cost him. Can't see him not making at least the QF though and perhaps even SF... On clay it doesn't really matter to him if he falls outside the top 4 - should defend enough then to be back to top 4 by RG which is where he'll want to limit himself from meeting Novak, for example, in the QF...
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Old 09-17-2012, 05:25 AM   #7
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Unlikely, Ferrer's still over 2000 points back.
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Old 09-17-2012, 06:41 AM   #8
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

How the hell will Ferrer manage to get 2K points in the rest of this year?
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:12 AM   #9
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Ferrer to make the WTF final (and lose to Rogi ) and win Valencia, thus securing his rightful place as the #1 Spaniard .
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:18 AM   #10
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

5%. No threat from Ferrer at all though, he can't add any more vulture events to his ranking so his point total will stagnate now.

The only threat is Berdych or especially Del Potro going on a tear in the indoor season, making deep runs all events and winning a Masters and/or WTF.
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Old 09-17-2012, 08:36 AM   #11
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010
More likely is Nadal stretching his streak of losing before the QF to 2 majors.
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:04 AM   #12
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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How the hell will Ferrer manage to get 2K points in the rest of this year?
He got 1,5k last year I don't think he will do it, but mathematically it's possible.
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:12 AM   #13
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

Tennis will certainly die if shitrer becomes ahead of Nadal in the rankings.
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:14 AM   #14
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

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Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
Nadal meeting Noserer in QF would be that way he can keep the streak of losing in QF in at least one slam since 2010
Would also be a great chance for Noserer to complete his GS QF set
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Old 09-17-2012, 09:26 AM   #15
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Default Re: What are the odds Rafa finishes 2012 #5?

no way this could happen
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