[Johnny Groove]

The race to #1 may well come down to the final week of the season. Since none of the top 3 are playing Davis Cup final, it could come down to the WTF and possibly even the WTF final to determine the year end #1.

Current Race Standings:

Djokovic- 9,910
Federer- 8,905
Murray- 6,730

Purely looking at the numbers, it appears as though it may be only a 2 horse race, but with Murray's surely bursting confidence now, perhaps he could sweep the fall season?

For Djokovic:

Beijing- Could gain 500 points
Shanghai- Could gain 1000 points
Paris- Could gain 1000 points
WTF- Could gain 1500 points

For Federer:

Davis Cup- Could gain 15 points
Shanghai- Could gain 1000 points
Basel- Could gain 500 points, but would have to drop 10-25 Davis Cup points
Paris- Could gain 1000 points
WTF- Could gain 1500 points

For Murray:

Tokyo- Could gain 500 points
Shanghai- Could gain 1000 points
Basel- Could gain 500 points
Paris- Could gain 1000 points
WTF- Could gain 1500 points

Now, bear in mind, all players could at any point take a wildcard into any other event and score some more points, as I'm sure any tournament director would love to have them.

So it is all very much in the air at this point.

[Time Violation]

Don't think Novak can possibly miss Tokyo with Uniqlo being his sponsor

[Johnny Groove]

Perhaps so, Taejin, but Djokovic is already signed up for Beijing perhaps he has a previous agreement with the Beijing event.

He can't play both tournaments the same week

He is good, but not that good

[TigerTim]

Tokyo is a sure fire victory for Murray. Pushray turned to Goatray there last year

Shanghai has apparently speeded up at federer request.

[Time Violation]

Yea, you're right, weird, probably he was already signed up or something.

[JoWillyTso]

It's between Federer and Djokovic this year, barre Murray winning everything. Next year should be interesting though. Nadal should be back and Murray will be looking forward to his first full season as a grand slam champion.

[duong]

Murray has entered Basel

Djokovic has entered neither Basel nor Valencia, it's official (see the section "upcoming tournaments" of the forum)

Fed cannot get any points in Davis cup as his zero for Tokyo will stay in his rankings and race

[Litotes]

Originally Posted by duong

Murray has entered Basel

Djokovic has entered neither Basel nor Valencia, it's official (see the section "upcoming tournaments" of the forum)

Fed cannot get any points in Davis cup as his zero for Tokyo will stay in his rankings and race

Fed could get DC points, but only if he plays Basel and DC points are better. A first-round loss in Basel is not likely, though.

[duong]

Originally Posted by Litotes

Fed could get DC points, but only if he plays Basel and DC points are better. A first-round loss in Basel is not likely, though.

no as he will keep his zero from Tokyo.

He has two non-countable results at the moment : Davis cup and Doha which anyway will be better than Davis cup.

[duong]

Originally Posted by Featherer

^^Neither DC nor Olympics are counting directly for the ATP 500 commitment. Is that right, Duong?

yes, right.

[JurajCrane]

Yeah Murray in Basel, Djokovic playing only Beijing from 500s.

[Roamed]

Random guessing assuming nobody has a horror indoor season...

Djokovic W Beijing, SF Shanghai, W Paris, SF World Tour Finals (2 RR wins) = 12170 points
Federer SF Shanghai, W Basel, DNP Paris, W World Tour Finals (2 RR wins + semis W + final W) = 11255 points
Murray W Tokyo, W Shanghai, SF Basel, DNP Paris, F World Tour Finals (2 RR wins + semis W) = 9210 points

[yesyesok]

Djokovic fell to pieces at this time last year. Unless he does that again he will coast to number one.

Federer won't risk an injury to keep it now.

[blank_frackis]

Wouldn't surprise me if Murray went the opposite direction and had a bit of a slump. He finally achieved his aim so I can't see him being raring to go win in Tokyo again.

[StatRacket]

Finally an interesting race to year end number one. By this point in the season it has been virtually sewn up each year since 2003.

It's a shame Murray went so poor in Masters 1000s this year (only 1 semi-final or better) or else it could've been REALLY interesting.