[philosophicalarf]

Assuming Nadal ditches the rest of the season: Murray will clear 7k points, unless he gets injured. Ferrer won't.

[Ash86]

Originally Posted by Lopez

If Ferrer makes the semis of the big tournaments (USO, Shanghai and Paris), he'll get around 1400 points I think. Then there is Tokyo/Beijing and Valencia 500, Bangkok 250 (and some others, can't remember). So it's going to be difficult but not impossible.

Then of course if Nadal doesn't play WTF and Ferrer makes the semis there as well, he'll get even more points.

He'll be more than 2000 behind IF he makes USO SF which is not a given. Then best case scenario IMO:

Malaysia 250 - W
Beijing 500 - F (300) - Djokovic and Tsonga are also playing here so getting to final won't be easy at all....
Shanghai 1000 - SF (360) - Federer, Murray, Djokovic - getting to the final too much IMO
Valencia 500 - W (500)
Paris 1000 - SF (360)

To me this is not easy at all for Ferrer. If he does this he has 1770 points. Would need then a couple of wins at the WTF (probably with a full strength Djokovic and Murray unlike last year) to get to the 2000 point mark... Of course theoretically Ferrer could do it but think it's a massive task. And it may be that Nadal decides to play WTF anyway.

[Lopez]

Originally Posted by Ash86

He'll be more than 2000 behind IF he makes USO SF which is not a given. Then best case scenario IMO:

Malaysia 250 - W
Beijing 500 - F (300) - Djokovic and Tsonga are also playing here so getting to final won't be easy at all....
Shanghai 1000 - SF (360) - Federer, Murray, Djokovic - getting to the final too much IMO
Valencia 500 - W (500)
Paris 1000 - SF (360)

To me this is not easy at all for Ferrer. If he does this he has 1770 points. Would need then a couple of wins at the WTF (probably with a full strength Djokovic and Murray unlike last year) to get to the 2000 point mark... Of course theoretically Ferrer could do it but think it's a massive task. And it may be that Nadal decides to play WTF anyway.

Exactly... Not likely, but possible. At least it will be interesting to follow as the rest of the year unfolds . Along with the race to the WTF.

Though I must say that I don't think that it matters much, Nadal will do well regardless.

[guichard]

Originally Posted by Ash86

He'll be more than 2000 behind IF he makes USO SF which is not a given. Then best case scenario IMO:

Malaysia 250 - W
Beijing 500 - F (300) - Djokovic and Tsonga are also playing here so getting to final won't be easy at all....
Shanghai 1000 - SF (360) - Federer, Murray, Djokovic - getting to the final too much IMO
Valencia 500 - W (500)
Paris 1000 - SF (360)

To me this is not easy at all for Ferrer. If he does this he has 1770 points. Would need then a couple of wins at the WTF (probably with a full strength Djokovic and Murray unlike last year) to get to the 2000 point mark... Of course theoretically Ferrer could do it but think it's a massive task. And it may be that Nadal decides to play WTF anyway.

Remember ranking are best of 18. Ferrer will not gain any point if he wins Malaysia or any other ATP 250, if he loses in Tokyo final he will gain 50 pts and he will gain 250 points if he wins Valencia


so under you scenario he will only gain 1020 with Tokyo/Shangai/Paris/Valencia + 720 USO + 1000 WTF=2540 + 4015(current pts)=6755, Nadal has 6840 points

[IOFH]

If he comes back to play indoors, 3. If not, 4

[ChrisL]

Nadal is emotionally fragile after his loss to the 100 seed at Wimbledon. I don't think we'll see him for the rest of the year. 4th at best.

[caisenma]

I think, as others have already said, the biggest issue for Nadal will be match-fitness. If he comes back for OZ it will be a big ask to return to the final, where he has 1200 points to defend.

[caisenma]

... And now I realise I didnt even answer the question. Fourth is where I think he'll finish but quite possibly drop quickly next year. His time to build up points and gain ground will be after RG.

[sunsfuns]

What kind of poll is this? There are only two possibilities - #3 or #4. I think Murray just manages to get enough points so it will be #4

[Lopez]

Originally Posted by sunsfuns

What kind of poll is this? There are only two possibilities - #3 or #4. I think Murray just manages to get enough points so it will be #4

It was made when it was still unclear whether Nadal will play after the USO... Now that it's likely that he'll skip the rest of the season, 3 and 4 are the most likely options.

5 is not impossible if JMDP/Ferrer start playing REALLY well and win big tournaments, but that's unlikely.

[Sapeod]

#4. I don't see him dropping down to #5. Of course, he could drop further next year if he's still injured.

[MuzzahLovah]

I don't think it will matter much to Murray to out pace an injured Nadal. I think he'll be more focused trying to do well here at USO and at WTF(the last one in London)

[Lopez]

Originally Posted by MuzzahLovah

I don't think it will matter much to Murray to out pace an injured Nadal. I think he'll be more focused trying to do well here at USO and at WTF(the last one in London)

Are you sure ? I read somewhere that the deal is until 2014... Unless you believe in the Mayan Apocalypse

[Just like heaven]

............

[RinkaWaw]

His career could possibly be over.