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View Poll Results: Who will win the 2012 US Open

R. Federer 63 49.61%
N. Djokovic 32 25.20%
R. Nadal 5 3.94%
A. Murray 17 13.39%
D. Ferrer 0 0%
J. Tsonga 2 1.57%
T. Berdych 0 0%
J. Del Potro 3 2.36%
J. Isner 1 0.79%
Other 4 3.15%
Voters: 127. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-06-2012, 01:35 AM   #61
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

There are basically 5 favorites, in two groups.

First tier - the big 3.

-Djokovic
-Federer
-Nadal

In this order, Djokovic has won the last three hardcourt Slams, Federer is #1 and Nadal is always Nadal.

Second group:

-Murray
-Del Potro

The two only other players in this era who have the potential to be multislam winners and who seem to be on the rise. I don't think Murray is any better than Del Potro, but I'll favor him over Juan because due to his seeding Juan will have to go through three top player players in all likelihood.

Then we have two players with outside shots:

-Tsonga
-Berdych

Both these players can beat anyone on their day, but on most days their weaknesses will be exploited by four of the players mentioned above and they will get brutally overpowered by Del Potro. If they go on a hot streak, they have chances though.

If anyone other than these seven is holding the trophy in the end, I will eat my hat. Seriously, I'll post a video of myself eating a hat

The odds would be something like:

Djokovic - 30%
Federer - 25%
Nadal - 20%
Murray - 13%
Del Potro - 10%
Tsonga - 1,5%
Berdych - 0,5%
Rest of the field - 0%
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Old 08-06-2012, 01:39 AM   #62
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

My dream is that Nadal destroys Del Potro in SF and Olderer in F to silence all the Olderer fangirls like Sapeod and Corey_Failman who always construct "what if" scenarios. Plus I am sure Mark Lenders would be devastated to learn that his idol isn't the invincible god he envisions him to be, which would also please me greatly.
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Old 08-06-2012, 01:41 AM   #63
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
There are basically 5 favorites, in two groups.

First tier - the big 3.

-Djokovic
-Federer
-Nadal

In this order, Djokovic has won the last three hardcourt Slams, Federer is #1 and Nadal is always Nadal.

Second group:

-Murray
-Del Potro

The two only other players in this era who have the potential to be multislam winners and who seem to be on the rise. I don't think Murray is any better than Del Potro, but I'll favor him over Juan because due to his seeding Juan will have to go through three top player players in all likelihood.

Then we have two players with outside shots:

-Tsonga
-Berdych

Both these players can beat anyone on their day, but on most days their weaknesses will be exploited by four of the players mentioned above and they will get brutally overpowered by Del Potro. If they go on a hot streak, they have chances though.

If anyone other than these seven is holding the trophy in the end, I will eat my hat. Seriously, I'll post a video of myself eating a hat

The odds would be something like:

Djokovic - 30%
Federer - 25%
Nadal - 20%
Murray - 13%
Del Potro - 10%
Tsonga - 1,5%
Berdych - 0,5%
Rest of the field - 0%
Agreed. But we might be underrating Murray (or maybe I'm overrating him. But his most recent form saw him defeat Djokovic and Federer. Nadal may be rusty and Murray might actually dismiss Nadal in brutal fashion were they to meet on a fast court right now. Delpo is looking good too. In fact, Delpo might beat Nadal right now on a fast surface too..
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Old 08-06-2012, 01:55 AM   #64
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by branimir_iliev View Post
Agreed. But we might be underrating Murray (or maybe I'm overrating him. But his most recent form saw him defeat Djokovic and Federer. Nadal may be rusty and Murray might actually dismiss Nadal in brutal fashion were they to meet on a fast court right now. Delpo is looking good too. In fact, Delpo might beat Nadal right now on a fast surface too..
I think we are rating him just right: the player with better odds outside of the dominating big 3. Until he actually wins one, we cannot favor him over players who have been sweeping Slam titles, can we?

I've learned over time to never write off Nadal. He has a knack to keep proving his haters wrong. He's definitely third favorite at worst; yes, he's been struggling and hardcourt isn't his favorite surface, but it's a Grand Slam and it's Nadal; there's no rational basis to argue that Delpo or Murray are bigger favorites.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
My dream is that Nadal destroys Del Potro in SF and Olderer in F to silence all the Olderer fangirls like Sapeod and Corey_Failman who always construct "what if" scenarios. Plus I am sure Mark Lenders would be devastated to learn that his idol isn't the invincible god he envisions him to be, which would also please me greatly.
Yeah, all my posts point out to me believing that Del Potro is an invincible god
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Old 08-06-2012, 02:16 AM   #65
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Murray is no less a favourite than anybody else. It's his tournament for the taking if he maintains his form, which I think he will.

Vulture the Toronto 1000, should be pretty simple if he at least shows up, even without his brain, for the first round or two.
Solid performance in the Cincy 1000, semis will do.

That would give him an ideal platform to try to win his first slam.
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Old 08-06-2012, 02:35 AM   #66
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
I think we are rating him just right: the player with better odds outside of the dominating big 3. Until he actually wins one, we cannot favor him over players who have been sweeping Slam titles, can we?

I've learned over time to never write off Nadal. He has a knack to keep proving his haters wrong. He's definitely third favorite at worst; yes, he's been struggling and hardcourt isn't his favorite surface, but it's a Grand Slam and it's Nadal; there's no rational basis to argue that Delpo or Murray are bigger favorites.



Yeah, all my posts point out to me believing that Del Potro is an invincible god
No, I suppose not. As regards Nadal, I'm not writing his career off or anything, I was simply thinking along the lines that he might not be in slam-worthy form in time for USO. I mean he's not even in match form right now and he's going to be thrust into Cincy which is a fast hard court. A decent player might even get him in the early rounds, not to mention the more in-form top players in the later rounds of Cincy. I could be wrong though. He might come out on fire but it seems unlikely, he's had a long layoff from top-level competitive tennis and fast hard courts aren't the best place for him to get his groove back.
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Old 08-06-2012, 04:13 AM   #67
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

I don't wish to react in a knee-jerk manner, but Murray's win at the Olympics surely puts him in serious contention for the USO title. It's on hard, he just defeated the #1 and #2 for an important victory which would likely give him confidence in future meetings, and Nadal's form is questionable right now. In my opinion, the top 3 favourites for the title are Federer, Djokovic and Murray. This should be really exciting to watch.
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Old 08-06-2012, 04:31 AM   #68
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Tommy Haas should be peaking for an injury at around USO time so to answer your question I think Fognini.
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Old 08-06-2012, 05:17 AM   #69
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

It will depend a lot on the results from Toronto and Cincinnati. Let's see in what condition the big 4 will be at the start of the Open.

Federer might recover on time for Cincinnati, but Rafa will definitely not be in optimal form there. Murray, if he plays Toronto and Cincy, might be exhausted. Same goes for Nole. Del Potro's form is an enigma as usual.

This USOpen, at least on paper, looks the most exciting GS in terms of the number of people who can win it since, well, forever.
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Old 08-06-2012, 06:15 AM   #70
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Novak will be the favorite, not like last year, but he is still the best hardcourt player until somebody proves otherwise.

Hopefully, its just not Federer winning.
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Old 08-06-2012, 07:04 AM   #71
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

i dreamed a dream...


Federer - Isner
Nadal - DelPotro
Murray - Tsonga
Djokovic - Raonic


Federer - DelPotro
Murray - Djokovic

DelPotro - Murray

DelPotro

time for these two to step up. favorites aside, i'm getting tired of the same SF/F rounds.
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Old 08-06-2012, 08:51 AM   #72
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by DemiCrayanhan View Post
i dreamed a dream...


Federer - Isner
Nadal - DelPotro
Murray - Tsonga
Djokovic - Raonic


Federer - DelPotro
Murray - Djokovic

DelPotro - Murray

DelPotro

time for these two to step up. favorites aside, i'm getting tired of the same SF/F rounds.
Interesting dream. As of now, I think it has a chance, just as many of the other posters scenarios do as well.

There is still some time to go yet with two masters to be played and who knows how the US Open draw will pan out.

Still, this has been an excellent first take discussion. I'll include my first take analysis, based on what we know now.

Assumptions:

1. I'm going to assume that the conditions will be faster this year at the US Open, perhaps to 2009 and earlier levels.

2. I'll assume that all top players will be relatively healthy and prepared to play. This may be erroneous, but since we just don't know, I'll make the positive assumption here.

3. I'll use the most recent form of the grass season as "current form". I realize this doesn't always translate to good hard court form, so I'll factor in the previous similar hard court form from earlier in the year, such as Dubai. I'll not place quite as a high a value on the slower hard court performances, such as Miami, or the Aussie Open.

4. Historical form/class - I look at the whole player's career on the surface/event to determine class form. I don't limit history to the past 2-3 years, but I do factor in the trend. If the player is nowhere near the level they were when they displayed that historical form, then I reduce it's importance. Example: Andy Roddick has won the US Open. But I don't think he is near the level he was, so though one can never completely discount a former winner at the event, I do not place as high a premium on Roddick's class, as Del Potro's. Opposite example: Obviously Federer. He won the event 5 straight times. He's returned to #1 in the world. I therefore give him an extremely high class factor, even though he had lesser results recently.

So with that, here is my first take:

1. Roger Federer - best class of all, best recent form winning Wimbledon, silver in Olympics, hard court form earlier in the year in similar conditions was excellent, winning in Rotterdam, Dubai and Indian Wells. I think he'll be difficult to beat. His likely #1 ranking also gives him an possible advantage in the draw. Top chances to beat him: Del Potro, Djokovic, Murray

2. Juan Martin Del Potro - good class, won in 2009. Current form, excellent in the Olympics, very good form earlier in the year in similar conditions. It looks like he is very close to being back at his 2009 level. His serve looked very good in his final matches at the Olympics and was hitting ground strokes with incredible pace and accuracy.

3. Andy Murray - Never won a major, so his class is below Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Del Potro, and even others that have won. However, his recent excellent form on grass, especially in the Olympics, was superb. His earlier similar condition hard court performances were good this year. So though it's difficult to rate him above Novak Djokovic, I think Murray's trend is upward and he may be ready to take it to the next level.

4. Novak Djokovic - Class is excellent, he is the defending champion, with 5 SF or higher results in his last 5 years at the US Open. However, his most recent form in the grass season was somewhat disappointing. His play earlier in the year in similar hard court conditions was also not at the level of 2011. Now, if he were to win Cincinnati, I might change the order here, but currently this is where I see him. I feel the pressure of trying to equal or better his results of last year has taken a bit of an emotional toll on him. If he can somehow forget all that, and just relax and play his best tennis, I think he he'll do better, but we can't forget other players also want to do the same. It's very competitive now. If he can maintain his health and energy during this part of the season, I see him having a better end to the year than last year. Playing deep in the Olympics, followed immediately by Toronto, Cincinnati, and the US Open will be very challenging.

5. Rafael Nadal - good class at the event with a win in 2010 and final in 2011, however I think he has benefited at this event from kinder draws and slower conditions of last year. I think this is his worst major surface. His recent form, well, it was tough in the grass season, a surprise exit at Wimbledon, followed by a flare-up of his tendinitis and withdrawal since then. Even if he manages to be healthy by the US Open, his form could be suspect. His similar condition hard court performances earlier in the year were good but nothing special. That said, one can't discount him; he like the other 1 time winners at the event has a chance if he gets a good draw and things play out right. I simply can't favor him above the rest at the moment in these conditions.

Of the others, Tomáš Berdych has a disappointing historical record at this event, and he had a very disappointing grass season. He might surprise, but I think it unlikely at the moment.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a lone QF result at the US Open, losing in straights to Federer. He had a fair grass season, but couldn't rise to the level needed. His earlier play on similar hard courts was good. I can't see him going beyond the QF.
I see John Isner and Milos Raonic has potential spoilers/upset candidates. At the moment, I still don't think they can go 7 rounds in a major. Though their service games are top-notch, their all around games are still too limited. Of the former winners, I think Lleyton Hewitt's game has been on the improve since his foot surgery. I would not be surprised to see him go deeper than he has in a long time - possibly to the QF. Andy Roddick looked like he had found a little something at Eastbourne, but disappointed in the big grass events. He could obviously upset, but I can't see him going all the way.

Ok, enough from me, long post again.

Respectfully,
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Old 08-06-2012, 09:03 AM   #73
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by MTwEeZi View Post
I predict Federer will fall out early (no trolling). He needs more time to rest IMO.
So I'm eager to hear a positive prediction from you

Which players do you think have a better chance to take it?

Respectfully,
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:38 AM   #74
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

First time ever that Murray is ahead of Nadal in the number of votes for a GS!
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:48 AM   #75
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Default Re: WWW US Open 2012: The City That Never Sleeps Discussion

Voted Muzzah. I don't think the old man will have quite enough left in the bag for the USO. I think he'll try to be rested for the indoor season. Muzzah can beat the current Djoker who is anything but his 2.0/2011 self.

Nadal I'm really unsure about. With Del Potro, it depends very much on the draw.
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