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View Poll Results: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

8 3 3.70%
7 0 0%
6 2 2.47%
5 10 12.35%
4 28 34.57%
3 21 25.93%
2 6 7.41%
1 6 7.41%
0 5 6.17%
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Old 07-22-2012, 05:53 AM   #46
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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Originally Posted by grepman View Post
It doesn't matter whether it was a dominant win or not. This is a speculative topic so everyone is giving their POV based on the current state of affairs. You could say Djokovic's Aus'12, USO'11 win was not dominant either but he is still the odds maker favorite for the Open. As an observer, I feel Federer can win since he has been very close (match points) to beating DJokovic the last couple of years and has for crying out loud won it 5 times before !

I also noticed how you construct your argument by picking & choosing tidbits about matches where your favorite player has lost and amplifying that excuse to make your case. Indoor tennis is still tennis ! Every topseed faces lower ranked players in the earlier round.
Who did Djokovic face from the 1st round to 5th ?
I agree. Fed can win. Heck, he could win the Open, the Olympics and WTF still. It's just my opinion however that Fed's level this year is not actually streets above his nearest competitors. After all, his lead in the Race is hardly decisive. As for Novak not being dominant, I'm struggling to think of a comparison of Fed losing sets to Mahut, Goffin and Benny in slams to the sets Novak lost - at least Tsonga, Seppi etc. are much higher ranked. That's my reason for thinking Novak should be more consistent.

I'm not saying Federer can't win - I just think it's very unlikely he can be winning as many titles as he did in his prime. I'd be surprised if some of the big prizes weren't taken by others - that's all. Wimbledon might give him confidence but to me it won't be decisive in determining his year ahead. After all, he had a heartbreaking US Open loss last year and then still went ahead to sweep the later tournaments. Anyway, yes it's a POV. And my POV is that just because Fed won Wimbledon, doesn't mean his season is now going to be dramatically different than if he had lost in the final.

I'll say he wins two more titles - don't think one will be the US Open.
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Old 07-22-2012, 08:14 AM   #47
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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I love how confident the Federer fans suddenly are due to one Wimbledon - and even that wasn't a dominant Wimbledon win. He could have lost to Benneatau - beat a subpar Novak and then, yes he played well vs Murray, but it was Murray in his home slam final. Does that mean he'll suddenly be overwhelming favourite to beat Novak at the US Open? Don't think so...

Federer hasn't won the US Open since 2008 - actually his biggest drought of all the slams. Murray and Novak are massive threats on that surface. Nadal is always a threat to Federer, even if it is a fast HC - Arthur Ashe has no roof, much to Nadal's pleasure I'm sure! Fed is second favourite or joint with Novak perhaps but no way a lock for US Open.

Same with Basel - Murray's playing, it's best of 3, Murray's good indoors. Are we saying Murray has no shot at all? I don't think so. It's not a slam - Murray can beat anyone on his day. I personally think if Fed gets 2 more titles it's been an unbelievable season for him - he's had some luck go his way (both the French Open and Wimbledon draws were really laughable - I mean Goffin, Mahut, Malisse - who the hell was Fed facing?!), not always played good tennis but made it through to the business end. But Novak, Murray etc. will be switched on till the end of the season and I think will be grabbing some of the big titles.
This. Fed last won the USO FOUR years ago. An eternity. It would take a gargantuan effort and an epic alignment of the stars for him to win there. You are correct that despite 5 titles (including Wimbledon) this year he's looked very vulnerable especially following the shocking loss to Roddick in Miami ,and Nole at his best is the odds on favourite for the USO. Should Fed manage to get to the final and square off Rafa, Rafa is the favourite given their history in slams injury or no injury. Fed has not beaten Rafa in a slam since god knows when.

Should Fed and Murray meet in the final I'd call it 50-50. It's Murray's favourite surface...There'll be zero pressure on him in New York. In a way it would be fitting that he beats someone who has schooled him in three slam finals in the past. As for Rogi, well the pressure of not having won there since 2008 could be the difference. Of course the assumption is that he avoids being upset early on as he has managed to do in the last 2 slams. Will that continue ? Who knows

I think he'll win Basel. Are you sure Murray's playing there ? He usually prefers Valencia. Fed could win the WTF as well especially if the other two guys have a taxing USO. So that's 2 more titles for a total of 7 titles this season. Not bad at all for a 31 year old I'd have to say Even if he doesn't win another title this year (which is always possible), he's done really well for someone in his position and fed fans should be happy with that.
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Old 07-22-2012, 08:19 AM   #48
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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I agree. Fed can win. Heck, he could win the Open, the Olympics and WTF still. It's just my opinion however that Fed's level this year is not actually streets above his nearest competitors. After all, his lead in the Race is hardly decisive. As for Novak not being dominant, I'm struggling to think of a comparison of Fed losing sets to Mahut, Goffin and Benny in slams to the sets Novak lost - at least Tsonga, Seppi etc. are much higher ranked. That's my reason for thinking Novak should be more consistent.

I'm not saying Federer can't win - I just think it's very unlikely he can be winning as many titles as he did in his prime. I'd be surprised if some of the big prizes weren't taken by others - that's all. Wimbledon might give him confidence but to me it won't be decisive in determining his year ahead. After all, he had a heartbreaking US Open loss last year and then still went ahead to sweep the later tournaments. Anyway, yes it's a POV.

I'll say he wins two more titles - don't think one will be the US Open.
In his prime the guy was winning 3 of 4 slams and taking 3 or 4 Masters per year. So really, no one here is saying he is going to do that this year, with 60% of the year gone, he mathematically cannot anyway.

The US SF last year may well have been a blessing in disguise, it seems to have lead him into some sort of introspection, something tells me its because of the manner in which he lost that match he went on such a tear indoors, not despite. Also, I simply dont get this USO drought crap. Yeah he last won it 4 years ago, So what? He won RG after that, but does that mean he is likelier to win French Open than US Open? In the last two years, Fed's worst slam was Wimbledon and look what happened in 2012. For a 17-time slam champion, it really doesnt matter if he last won one of his best slams 3-4 years ago. US Open is his second best slam, maybe even a case to be made as his best considering he has been close the last 8 straight years really (given he had 2 MPs in the last 2 semis to have made in 8 straight finals). I am not saying he will win the title for sure, but he is the easy 2nd favourite behind Nole for the title, and at his age and on the most neutral surface out there, that is pretty ridiculous.

I dont get why you seem so....nearly offended even if some Fed fans are dreaming way too much. They (We, rather) havent had this opportunity for over 2 years and people were saying this time would never come. This is simply speculative and I agree that most Federer fans in this thread are predicting way off but do you really need to quote and argue with every second one?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash86

And my POV is that just because Fed won Wimbledon, doesn't mean his season is now going to be dramatically different than if he had lost in the final.
This however is BS and you know it.

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Should Fed and Murray meet in the final I'd call it 50-50. It's Murray's favourite surface...There'll be zero pressure on him in New York. In a way it would be fitting that he beats someone who has schooled him in three slam finals in the past. As for Rogi, well the pressure of not having won there since 2008 could be the difference. Of course the assumption is that he avoids being upset early on as he has managed to do in the last 2 slams. Will that continue ? Who knows
You are entitled to your opinion and I respect it but really, Roger has no pressure whatsoever at the US Open. He has won that title a freaking 5 times and has nothing to prove there. And there is no Slam pressure on him either because he has won that 17th to shut up his detractors.

And Federer hasnt had an "early upset" in a slam since an eternity. And this eternity is more than 4 years
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Old 07-22-2012, 09:16 AM   #49
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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This. Fed last won the USO FOUR years ago. An eternity. It would take a gargantuan effort and an epic alignment of the stars for him to win there. You are correct that despite 5 titles (including Wimbledon) this year he's looked very vulnerable especially following the shocking loss to Roddick in Miami ,and Nole at his best is the odds on favourite for the USO. Should Fed manage to get to the final and square off Rafa, Rafa is the favourite given their history in slams injury or no injury. Fed has not beaten Rafa in a slam since god knows when.

Should Fed and Murray meet in the final I'd call it 50-50. It's Murray's favourite surface...There'll be zero pressure on him in New York. In a way it would be fitting that he beats someone who has schooled him in three slam finals in the past. As for Rogi, well the pressure of not having won there since 2008 could be the difference. Of course the assumption is that he avoids being upset early on as he has managed to do in the last 2 slams. Will that continue ? Who knows

I think he'll win Basel. Are you sure Murray's playing there ? He usually prefers Valencia. Fed could win the WTF as well especially if the other two guys have a taxing USO. So that's 2 more titles for a total of 7 titles this season. Not bad at all for a 31 year old I'd have to say Even if he doesn't win another title this year (which is always possible), he's done really well for someone in his position and fed fans should be happy with that.
Murray - Fed 50-50 ? really ??

If Federer can overcome pressure of winning Wimbledon he will manage the pressure of USO
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Old 07-22-2012, 09:31 AM   #50
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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This however is BS and you know it.
I don't think it is. Fed's level will not somehow dramatically increase because of that slam win. Confidence matters but really I think of the top players Fed is the one least affected by confidence issues - he's pretty even keeled. He will have Olympics, Toronto, Cincy, US Open in quick succession. He'll have hungry Nole, Andy, Del Potro, Tsonga, Berdych. At some point the matches and his age come into play. To me the level of play is more important to look at than results - his Aus Open and RG results were identical but the Aus Open level was WAY higher. In fact I think he played better at the Aus Open than at Wimbledon - apart from perhaps when the roof came on after the rain delay in the final.

Level wise Fed to me has not played the highest level of tennis this year of the top 3. That will bear itself out at some point. The one positive I guess for Fed is that his biggest threat to the US Open, Novak, can only be met in the final. And Novak could lose to Murray. Murray can beat Fed at the US Open - Murray's better on fast hardcourts than grass and he was much more mature in the Wimby final than he has been in the past.
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Old 07-22-2012, 09:50 AM   #51
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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This. Fed last won the USO FOUR years ago. An eternity. It would take a gargantuan effort and an epic alignment of the stars for him to win there.
You are exaggerating. Federer got beaten by the smallest of margins the last three years, twice in the semi and once in the final so very close. Before that he won 5 straight titles.
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Old 07-22-2012, 09:59 AM   #52
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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You are entitled to your opinion and I respect it but really, Roger has no pressure whatsoever at the US Open. He has won that title a freaking 5 times and has nothing to prove there. And there is no Slam pressure on him either because he has won that 17th to shut up his detractors.

And Federer hasnt had an "early upset" in a slam since an eternity. And this eternity is more than 4 years
Why did Roger lose to the pony in 2009. Was it mental or was he completely outplayed ? What does his subsequent record against the pony tell you vis a vis that final. Roger does feel pressure at slams. Most of the time he deals with it admirably (Wimbledon 2009 and sometimes he crumbles under the weight of expectation AO '09 and USO '09). The pressure is not only outside pressure. He also expects to win these tournaments and 4 years is too long a dry spell for someone like him.

As for pre quarters upset...well it will come sooner or later and coming withing 2 points of losing to someone like Benneteau of all people and on grass no less should tell you that nothing should be taken for granted. I hope that's Roger's attitude anyway as things will not get any easier.
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:04 AM   #53
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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Old 07-22-2012, 10:08 AM   #54
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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This. Fed last won the USO FOUR years ago. An eternity. It would take a gargantuan effort and an epic alignment of the stars for him to win there. You are correct that despite 5 titles (including Wimbledon) this year he's looked very vulnerable especially following the shocking loss to Roddick in Miami ,and Nole at his best is the odds on favourite for the USO. Should Fed manage to get to the final and square off Rafa, Rafa is the favourite given their history in slams injury or no injury. Fed has not beaten Rafa in a slam since god knows when.
In 2009 he lost the FINAL in 5 sets. In 2010 and 2011 he had MATCH POINTS in the semi. To say that he performed decently well despite not winning since 2008 is probably understating it a little.

How was the loss to Roddick shocking in any meaningful way? He'd just won Indian Wells and a couple of tournaments before that. It was unrealistic to expect him to make a real impact in Miami. Not to mention - it wasn't the first time he lost to Andy there.

If the USO court plays decently fast, a meeting between Fed and Nadal would favour Fed slightly. That said, we all know about his brainfarts when it comes to Nadal, so that might actually cancel out the surface advantage.

Quote:
Should Fed and Murray meet in the final I'd call it 50-50. It's Murray's favourite surface...There'll be zero pressure on him in New York. In a way it would be fitting that he beats someone who has schooled him in three slam finals in the past. As for Rogi, well the pressure of not having won there since 2008 could be the difference. Of course the assumption is that he avoids being upset early on as he has managed to do in the last 2 slams. Will that continue ? Who knows
50-50? Okay.

Quote:
I think he'll win Basel. Are you sure Murray's playing there ? He usually prefers Valencia. Fed could win the WTF as well especially if the other two guys have a taxing USO. So that's 2 more titles for a total of 7 titles this season. Not bad at all for a 31 year old I'd have to say Even if he doesn't win another title this year (which is always possible), he's done really well for someone in his position and fed fans should be happy with that.
I agree, I'd be pretty happy if he doesn't win another title this year, though I'd like him to win WTF again.
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:17 AM   #55
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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You are exaggerating. Federer got beaten by the smallest of margins the last three years, twice in the semi and once in the final so very close. Before that he won 5 straight titles.
Say he'd won those 2 semis against Nole (as he should have), do you honestly believe he'd have beaten Nadal in the final? Didn't think so. He's never beaten him in a slam final outside of Wimbledon and even there Rafa won their last encounter in 08. So I think the fact that Nole clutched it up in those match points is completely irrelevant as far as the eventual winner of those 2 USO's is concerned. Look Fed's one of the top 4 favourites going into this USO. That's not too shabby for a 31 year old. Nothing but admiration from me.
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:26 AM   #56
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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Say he'd won those 2 semis against Nole (as he should have), do you honestly believe he'd have beaten Nadal in the final? Didn't think so. He's never beaten him in a slam final outside of Wimbledon and even there Rafa won their last encounter in 08. So I think the fact that Nole clutched it up in those match points is completely irrelevant as far as the eventual winner of those 2 USO's is concerned. Look Fed's one of the top 4 favourites going into this USO. That's not too shabby for a 31 year old. Nothing but admiration from me.
they've never played against each other at the uso and you say he wouldn't have a chance against nadal there... funny.
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:26 AM   #57
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

Murray's brother is playing Valencia this year so Muzzah will probably go their chill with Rafa and do doubles with Jamie.

Btw where is the tard who said "Federer will fall"
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:28 AM   #58
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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Say he'd won those 2 semis against Nole (as he should have), do you honestly believe he'd have beaten Nadal in the final? Didn't think so. He's never beaten him in a slam final outside of Wimbledon and even there Rafa won their last encounter in 08. So I think the fact that Nole clutched it up in those match points is completely irrelevant as far as the eventual winner of those 2 USO's is concerned. Look Fed's one of the top 4 favourites going into this USO. That's not too shabby for a 31 year old. Nothing but admiration from me.
USO is a very, very fast court. Nadal wouldn't have been and won't evr be the favourite there against fed.
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:28 AM   #59
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

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How was the loss to Roddick shocking in any meaningful way? He'd just won Indian Wells and a couple of tournaments before that. It was unrealistic to expect him to make a real impact in Miami. Not to mention - it wasn't the first time he lost to Andy there.

If the USO court plays decently fast, a meeting between Fed and Nadal would favour Fed slightly. That said, we all know about his brainfarts when it comes to Nadal, so that might actually cancel out the surface advantage.
Given Andy Roddick's atrocious form heading into that match and thereafter I'd say destroying the then in form player on the tour was pretty shocking to say the least. I don't mean to say it is because of that loss that he's played relatively poorly in comparison to his post AO and pre Miami run. I just used it a marker for when things started looking a little laboured for him...If anything it's his back injury that has probably caused the change. Still can't believe he managed to play as well as he did at Wimbledon with that

As far as the Rafa match-up is concerned...you said it best. Fed can no longer rely on surface advantage against him. The match up is just too big an issue. That Rafa's tactics are so predictable but the result is always the same tells the whole story really.
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Old 07-22-2012, 10:34 AM   #60
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Default Re: How many more titles will Federer win this year?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnbert View Post
they've never played against each other at the uso and you say he wouldn't have a chance against nadal there... funny.
They hadn't met at the AO before the 09 final either and look what happened there despite Rafa's epic semi the DAY before. Unless Fed develops a double handed backhand he will always struggle to put Rafa away in 5 sets. The stats are there for everyone to see. This is not trashing Fed. It's just a simple reality of the situation.
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