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View Poll Results: Will Nadal catch Sampras?

No way he catches Sampras, Nadal will never win a slam or be #1 again 12 6.90%
He won't catch Sampras, but he will get a 12th slam 15 8.62%
Nadal will win 12 slams and get back to #1, but that's it 1 0.57%
Nadal will win 13 slams, but not get back to #1 17 9.77%
Nadal will win 13 slams, get 150ish weeks as #1 8 4.60%
Nadal will win 14 slams, but won't touch Pete's other records 44 25.29%
Nadal will win 14, and be close to Sampras otherwise to facilitate hearty debate 15 8.62%
Nadal will win 15 or more slams, but come nowhere near Pete's other records 62 35.63%
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:04 PM   #1
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Default Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

As the #9 player of all time, my all time personal favorite Rafael Nadal is 3 slams short of the great Pete Sampras. Forget catching Federer, it ain't happening. Catching Sampras is at the far end of Nadal's potential, I think, similar to Fed winning 20 slams and 100 titles overall.

Borg and Budge I think are within another slam or two for Nadal, but to get to Sampras at 14, more work is to be done.

Total Slams:

Sampras- 14
Nadal- 11

Forget catching Federer at 17 or whatever he ends up with 14 is a more realistic number.

Total Weeks as #1:

Sampras- 286
Nadal- 102

Loooooong way to go for this one.

Year End #1:

Sampras- 6
Nadal- 2

Time spent at #1 is, and will always be Rafa's shortcoming on his GOAT resume. He won't catch Sampras here, but another Year End #1 or 2 for Rafa is not out of the question, maybe 200 weeks total at #1? Slim, but possible.

AO:

Sampras- 2 wins, 1 final
Nadal- 1 win, 1 final

Rafa could very possibly win another AO, maaaaaaybe 2, to at least tie Sampras here.

RG:

Sampras- 1 SF
Nadal- 7 wins

Complete wash here, Sampras' lack of performance on clay is one of the only reasons Rafa even has a shot to come close to Pete's achievements.

Wimbledon:

Sampras- 7 wins
Nadal- 2 wins, 3 finals

2-3 in Wimbledon finals is a blow against Nadal, sure.

USO:

Sampras- 5 wins, 3 finals
Nadal- 1 win, 1 final

Not even close here

Year End Masters:

Sampras- 5 wins, 1 final
Nadal- 0 wins, 1 final

Another destruction.

Masters 1000:

Sampras- 11 wins, 8 finals
Nadal- 21 wins, 10 finals

Rafa has this trump card, but how much is it worth?

Total Titles:

Sampras- 64 wins, 24 finals
Nadal- 50 wins, 21 finals

Career Win-Loss %:

Sampras- 762-222 (77.4%)
Nadal- 583-122 (82.7%)

Nadal's got the higher %, but 179 fewer wins, but also 100 fewer losses.

So, I think Rafa should be aiming for the following for the rest of his career if trying to at least be in the discussion of being better than Sampras:

3 more slams to match Sampras, preferrably one each at AO, Wimbledon, and USO to round out a double Career Grand Slam. So then they'd be basically even in terms of slam count. But slams are not everything.

Nadal also needs another 2 year end #1's and at least 200 weeks at #1. Even then, he'd be sittin' on 4 Year End #1's, 2 less than Sampras, and 86 weeks shy in terms of total weeks at #1. Pete will always have this stat over Nadal, but can Rafa gain in other stats to compensate?

Nadal needs to win the Year End Masters at least twice compared to Pete's 5. So Pete will always have weeks at #1 and Year End Masters. But Nadal will have at least 10 more Masters Series Events than Sampras, for whatever that is worth.

Nadal needs another 14 titles to tie Sampras, and at least 650 wins and a much better win % than Pete.

So, basically, Nadal has a ways to go to catch Sampras, and it is a bit of a long shot, really all dependent on how many more years Nadal has. He is 26, sure, but an old 26. This is his 10 season on tour. Sampras played 15. If Nadal can keep himself motivated and healthy another 5 years, he can MAYBE catch Pete.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:05 PM   #2
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

10 RG and it's done.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:08 PM   #3
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

He can maybe reach Pete's slam count but that's about it.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:12 PM   #4
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

Sampras >>>>>>> Nadal. Even if Nadal wins more majors than the great man himself. Nadal's tennis is just ugly, effective yes but painful to watch. Yes Nadal will catch and pass Sampras but Sampras will forever be the better player in my view.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:13 PM   #5
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

Number of titles and number of slams is catchable, but if i look overall career it's going to be very hard for Nadal to catch up.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:14 PM   #6
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

I would expect so , Nadull is one of the best movers in the game , and Sampras is almost 41 .
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:14 PM   #7
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

Your ranking is based too much on numbers without looking at context. 2-3 Wimbledon finals is not bad when you consider that 2 of those finals he lost to one of the greatest who ever played on that court. It shows consistency on the surface to have gotten to so many finals there.

Nadal has the career golden slam - more rounded achievements than Sampras. To add to that he adapted his game to be able to win Wimbledon & US Open - Sampras stuck to the same game plan throughout - even on clay.

As for YE no.1 - again - look at who was fighting Sampras for the no.1 title most years - Agassi was AWOL a lot of the time so there was no other all time great player threatening him. Nadal on the other hand had Federer to deal with from the start. No Federer = Nadal being no.1 in 05, 06, 07 too i.e. 5 YE no.1s already.

I'm not saying Nadal is better than Sampras - Sampras has a lot of slams, great time at the top etc. - but just pointing out that the context of some of the records needs to be looked at, as does the competition. Winning most of your slams vs Djokovic and Federer is pretty impressive. Can he get to 14? Perhaps. He just needs one good run - what if next summer the knees stick with him and he does the channel slam again? Suddenly he's at 13 and only needs 1. He'll probably play at least 2 more seasons - needs 3 out of 9 majors - possible - certainly not utterly beyond reach - given that 2 of those are the French Open.

Finally if Nadal reaches 14 then to me there's no question he exceeds Sampras -most players would go for a career slam; an overall record at a slam; a gold medal; multiple Davis Cups; winning H2H vs pretty much all your main rivals (Novak may change) including one of the best ever; winning the greatest match of all time and having many other "epic" matches; pretty much every clay record in the book - THAN Sampras' time at no1, his YECs etc. Both great but Nadal's career would overall be more balanced and complete.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:17 PM   #8
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

I would be surprise if he doesn't
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:21 PM   #9
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

Quote:
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I would expect so , Nadull is one of the best movers in the game , and Sampras is almost 41 .

Epic .
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:30 PM   #10
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

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Originally Posted by Looner View Post
10 RG and it's done.
But would his relative one dimensionality on clay hurt his argument?

I think winning once more at the other 3 would be better for a more rounded resume. Less likely than another couple RG's though.

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He can maybe reach Pete's slam count but that's about it.
I think so.

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Sampras >>>>>>> Nadal. Even if Nadal wins more majors than the great man himself. Nadal's tennis is just ugly, effective yes but painful to watch. Yes Nadal will catch and pass Sampras but Sampras will forever be the better player in my view.
Certainly some bring in aesthetics and game when comparing greats.

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Originally Posted by AncicCilic View Post
Number of titles and number of slams is catchable, but if i look overall career it's going to be very hard for Nadal to catch up.
Yep, yep. Slams and titles are catchable, but I doubt Nadal can get all that time at #1 and no way he wins as many Year End Masters.

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I would expect so , Nadull is one of the best movers in the game , and Sampras is almost 41 .


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Originally Posted by Ash86 View Post
Your ranking is based too much on numbers without looking at context. 2-3 Wimbledon finals is not bad when you consider that 2 of those finals he lost to one of the greatest who ever played on that court. It shows consistency on the surface to have gotten to so many finals there.

Nadal has the career golden slam - more rounded achievements than Sampras. To add to that he adapted his game to be able to win Wimbledon & US Open - Sampras stuck to the same game plan throughout - even on clay.

As for YE no.1 - again - look at who was fighting Sampras for the no.1 title most years - Agassi was AWOL a lot of the time so there was no other all time great player threatening him. Nadal on the other hand had Federer to deal with from the start. No Federer = Nadal being no.1 in 05, 06, 07 too i.e. 5 YE no.1s already.

I'm not saying Nadal is better than Sampras - Sampras has a lot of slams, great time at the top etc. - but just pointing out that the context of some of the records needs to be looked at, as does the competition. Winning most of your slams vs Djokovic and Federer is pretty impressive. Can he get to 14? Perhaps. He just needs one good run - what if next summer the knees stick with him and he does the channel slam again? Suddenly he's at 13 and only needs 1. He'll probably play at least 2 more seasons - needs 3 out of 9 majors - possible - certainly not utterly beyond reach - given that 2 of those are the French Open.

Finally if Nadal reaches 14 then to me there's no question he exceeds Sampras -most players would go for a career slam; an overall record at a slam; a gold medal; multiple Davis Cups; winning H2H vs pretty much all your main rivals (Novak may change) including one of the best ever; winning the greatest match of all time and having many other "epic" matches; pretty much every clay record in the book - THAN Sampras' time at no1, his YECs etc. Both great but Nadal's career would overall be more balanced and complete.
True, true. Nadal's resume would certainly look more balanced than Sampras', also the Career Golden Slam. Nadal also has adapted to his worst surface better than Pete, imo.

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I would be surprise if he doesn't
Really?

I think Nadal can get to 14, he can get to 64 overall titles, he can also maybe catch Pete in overall wins, but I'd be beyond shocked if he came close to Pete's 6 Year End #1's, 286 weeks, or 5 Year End Masters. How much does Rafa's Olympic Gold, 4 Davis Cups and 10 more Masters 1000 titles count for then? I think if Nadal maxes out the rest of his career, it can be very close.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:34 PM   #11
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

It's not out of the question. The fact that he has won all four slams has to tell in his advantage, and he also outdoes Sampras on streaks - not only clay streaks but also the slam final streak and the "Win on three consecutive surfaces"-streak. But the No. 1. question really hurts him, so he would have to make up some ground here, and at the moment that is not looking too promising for him. It will be interesting to see if he can fight back.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:36 PM   #12
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

why this thread? Did he get tired of chasing Federer?
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:39 PM   #13
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

My favorite Nadulltard at it again with a good thread. Yes, I think Nadal can chase down Sampy. I have thought for a long time now they are about on the same level when it comes to greatness. I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal wins 14 slams exactly. They are opposites when it comes to game style. Sampras the best offensive player probably ever, Nadal the best defensive player ever. As far as mental toughness and killer instinct goes they are identical. But they both lack the versatility of Federer. They are essentially one-dimensional players. Sampras struggled on clay due to lack of defensive qualities while Nadal struggles on indoor due to lack of attacking qualities. Federer is one in a trillion. He his incredible both on offense and defense. The most complete player of all time. Sampy and Nadal is a notch below. Nadal still has 3 slams to go though. Could be difficult as he is starting to decline. But I certainly wouldn't put it beyond him.
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:40 PM   #14
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

Perhaps he will win 14 slams or 15, but the others records are for Sampras
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Old 07-11-2012, 09:40 PM   #15
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Default Re: Can Nadal chase down Sampras?

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I would expect so , Nadull is one of the best movers in the game , and Sampras is almost 41 .
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