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Old 06-23-2012, 04:29 PM   #1
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Default Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more without

I've noticed many at MTF make strong assertions that player x has almost no chance to win a major after not winning one for 2 years or more. Believe it or not, it happens more than people think, even in the presence of strong competition.

Here is a list of players who have gone about 3 years (ex. Sampras, Federer 2+) or more between major wins in the Open Era, in chronological order. I've included approximate ages based on birth year:

1. Arthur Ashe (USA) - 1970 AO (age 27) to 1975 WC (32) Ashe beat Borg in the QF in 4 and then Connors in 4 in the Final to win the Wimbledon Championship.

2. Jimmy Connors (USA) - 1978 USO (26) to 1982 WC (32) - Connors went 8 years between Wimbledon wins. He beat John McEnroe in a 5 set thriller at 1982 Wimbledon.

3. Mats Wilander (SWE) - 1985 RG (21) to 1988 AO (24) Defeated Stefan Edberg, then Pat Cash each in 5 sets, becoming the only player to win the Australian Open on grass and hard court. He went on to win at Roland Garros and the US Open.

4. Boris Becker (GER) - 1986 WC (19) to 1989 WC (22) Boris came from 2 sets to 1 down against Ivan Lendl in the semifinal and then smashed Stefan Edberg in the final to win his 3rd Wimbledon title.

5. Boris Becker (GER) - 1991 AO (24) to 1996 A0 (29) After a 5 year major hiatus, Boris won his final major, winning his second Australian Open over Michael Chang in 4 sets.

6. Andre Agassi (USA) - 1995 AO (25) to 1999 RG (29) Agassi came back from injury and other problems, having sunk to a world ranking of 141 in 1997. In 1998 he won 5 titles and rose from 110 to #6 in the world. At Roland Garros in 1999, he came from 2 sets down to beat Andrei Medvedev in 5 sets to become the 5th player in history to complete a Career Grand Slam. Agassi also had 2 2 year gaps from Wimbledon 1992 (22) to the US Open in 1994 (24), and from the Australian Open 2001 (31) to 2003 (33).

7. Gustavo Kuerten (BRA) - 1997 RG (21) to 2000 RG (24) Guga won his 2nd of 3 RG titles. At year's end he was #1, the clay court wizard defeating both Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras back to back on the indoor hard court at the year-end Master's Cup.

8. Pete Sampras (USA) - 2000 WC (29) to 2002 USO (31) Sampras beat Andre Agassi in 4 sets to win his record 14th major in the final tournament of his career.

9. Marit Safin (RUS) - 2000 USO (20) to 2005 AO (25) Safin defeated Roger Federer in a tight 5 set SF

10. Novak Djokovic (SRB) - 2008 AO (21) to 2011 AO (24) Djokovic's Davis Cup win helped propel him to an Australian Open victory in 3 sets vs. Andy Murray, and a great 2011, additionally winning Wimbledon and the US Open.

11. Roger Federer (SUI) - 2010 AO (28) to 2012 WC (30) Federer's Wimbledon victory over Andy Murray took him from #3 to #1 in the world and he surpassed the Sampras ATP rankings record for most total weeks at #1.

Some common factors among all of these players?
1. All were considered or ranked #1 players at some point in their careers.
2. All became multiple major winners, all except Safin having 3 or more major wins.
3. Most of them showed good form during the few months prior to winning again.

There may be more common factors; I'll leave it to you to find them.

Interestingly, the ages in winning after a gap varied from 22 to 33 - 7 occurrences at age 29 or older.

Never count out a champion just because they haven't won in awhile.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Last edited by masterclass : 10-18-2012 at 12:43 PM. Reason: Edited to include Roger Federer. Thanks Mr. Litotes.
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Old 06-23-2012, 04:32 PM   #2
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

You are such a Fedtard masterclass

Yes, Roger will win Wimbledon and become Number 11 in that list
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Old 06-23-2012, 04:41 PM   #3
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

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Originally Posted by Mystique View Post
You are such a Fedtard masterclass

Yes, Roger will win Wimbledon and become Number 11 in that list
And who mentioned Federer? . I'm just a fan of great tennis. And all the players on this list were certainly capable of producing great tennis. But as one of the great players in history, I would agree that Mr. Federer certainly qualifies and shouldn't be dismissed lightly.

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Old 06-23-2012, 04:48 PM   #4
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
You are just beating around the bush. What you want to say is that Fed will be a slam this year(or next?)
Hmm, based on the other players in the list, I would say he will be a threat as long as he is playing well, until he is close to hanging up the racquet. It could happen this fortnight, perhaps the US Open, or next year, or up to that time he leaves.

I would say Mr. Djokovic and Mr. Nadal fall into the same category. When they eventually encounter a gap, you won't be able to dismiss them as threats until it's clearly over for them. I have a feeling Nadal may end his career before encountering a significant gap, but that's just a feeling.

I would say Juan Martin Del Potro is a strong candidate as well.

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Old 06-23-2012, 04:48 PM   #5
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

To be fair, most of those guys weren't past 30 when they did it, but yeah, I do think Fed will get another Slam soon.
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Old 06-23-2012, 04:49 PM   #6
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

excellent thread idea.


i general MC has a point here folks.
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Old 06-23-2012, 04:56 PM   #7
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

Good thread John. I agree, Ferrero, Hewitt and Roddick can all still win a slam
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Old 06-23-2012, 05:08 PM   #8
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

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Originally Posted by hat__boy View Post
Good thread John. I agree, Ferrero, Hewitt and Roddick can all still win a slam
I know you are probably kidding, but slim outside chance Ben. , I would like them better if like the others in the list above they had won either multiple majors, or their additional gap major earlier. Their gap might be too long now for their respective quality. Hewitt's injuries have also compromised his chances. If somehow he can get completely healthy, match fit, maybe, maybe he has a chance. Roddick... I think his biggest chance to win after a gap passed him by in 2009. But if he gets hot, he can't be completely counted out at Wimbledon if conditions are favorable for him. I think he needs to show more consistency before he can do realistically do it, and he is not going in the right direction in the rankings at the moment.

That's why I mentioned Mr. del Potro has having a strong chance. He's still young enough that his one win in 2009 is close enough, and he is now playing consistently well, rising in the rankings to top 10. He could end up being like Safin, for instance.

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Old 06-23-2012, 05:11 PM   #9
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

d-pot is the next player to win a slam outside the top 3.

book it. i say it happens within 2 years.
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Old 06-23-2012, 05:28 PM   #10
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clay Death View Post
d-pot is the next player to win a slam outside the top 3.

book it. i say it happens within 2 years.
wont happen CD
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Old 06-23-2012, 05:46 PM   #11
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

good analytics/statistics Masterclass

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Originally Posted by masterclass View Post
I'm just a fan of great tennis.

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Old 06-23-2012, 05:47 PM   #12
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clay Death View Post
d-pot is the next player to win a slam outside the top 3.

book it. i say it happens within 2 years.
Could be Mr. CD. I think he needs a bit of luck with the draw, player x take out player y, etc. and he could take the US Open again.

But he needs to be completely healthy as well. So his hard court preference works against him. Knee problems are not good for anyone, and especially a big man like he is. He's had some hard luck in that regard. Let's hope that his health improves. He can be a real force in the game.

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Old 06-23-2012, 05:48 PM   #13
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

Thats Right MasterClass.. Champions remain Champions
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Old 06-23-2012, 06:15 PM   #14
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

Mr. MasterClass thanks for a great thread. I really enjoyed reading about Ash, Connors, etc. winning majors after so long ... you might as well include Djokovic there, it took him 3 years to win his second slam (silly punk :-)).
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Old 06-23-2012, 06:18 PM   #15
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Default Re: Believe it or not: It's not so unusual to win a slam after 3 years or more withou

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Mr. MasterClass thanks for a great thread. I really enjoyed reading about Ash, Connors, etc. winning majors after so long ... you might as well include Djokovic there, it took him 3 years to win his second slam (silly punk :-)).
Yes sir, Mr. Alex, Mr. Djokovic is there.. standing at number 10 on the list. He could be one of those that does it two or three times, like Agassi.

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