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Old 05-25-2012, 03:23 PM   #1
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Default 2012 French Open Draw Analysis.

With the 2012 French Open draw now out, we can look at which players have the easiest and toughest paths to get deep in this tournament. As always, we will rank the quarters from toughest to easiest. These rankings aren’t determined by the number of top players in the draw. Rather, we will judge each section by how hard the likely paths of the top seed in that section are. Also, we will refer back to our preview several times throughout this draw analysis, so if you haven’t had a chance to see that yet it might be worth checking out.

In what is no surprise to conspiracy theorists and even level-headed tennis fans, Nadal drew Murray in his half while Djokovic drew Federer. Now, it’s unfair to ever count Murray out-he has been to the semifinals of the last five Slams-but it doesn’t quite look like Murray is anywhere near the rest of the top 3 right now, especially with his back injury. I would not be surprised at all if Murray didn’t make the semifinals, and that’s before seeing his draw.

Just in how the top 4 are looking before we analyze the draw, there is a pretty clear distinction between them. Nadal is a clear favorite now with his relatively easy (emphasis on the word relatively, not easy) victory over Djokovic in the Rome final. After that is Djokovic and then Federer, who looks like he is playing top-class tennis this year but can’t quite seem to keep up with Djokovic and Nadal on clay (at least the red stuff). Federer is still very close to Djokovic though and would take advantage of even the slightest lapse by Nadal or Djokovic. And after that is Murray, who had a very poor clay court season and who looks to be fairly troubled with a back injury.

Andy Murray’s Quarter:

Murray has a pretty easy first and second round. After that, however, it gets a whole lot harder. Bernard Tomic in the third round is always a very tricky matchup. Tomic has a very bland game that somehow manages to lull you to sleep and overpower you at the same time. He is also a good defender and Murray will have trouble winning points from the baseline. And if Tomic doesn’t reach the third round, Alejandro Falla could be his opponent. Falla somehow massively overperforms in Slams, reaching the fourth round here last year and almost beating Federer in the opening round of Wimbledon 2010.

To read the entire draw analysis, please click here. As always, thoughts and opinions are welcome and requested.
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