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Old 05-26-2012, 06:32 AM   #751
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

More to come in my draw analysis, but here is a preview of Rafael Nadal's draw - it lines up easily for him all the way to the final.

Nadal's probable road to final:

R128 - Bolleli (ITA) [111] - (may be Nadal's toughest match to the SF - Nadal must get past the Roland Garros Giant Killer (Berdych, Del Potro) in the first round )
R64 - Istomin (UZB) [42] - (Fognini's puppet - need we say more?)
R32 - Mayer (GER) [35] - (Fell to Falla #120 at RG last year...)
R16 - Monaco (ARG) [15] - (Almagro's Spanish speaking pigeon [6-2])
QF - Almagro (ESP) [14] - (Ferrer's Spanish turkey [10-0])
SF - Ferrer (ESP) [6] - (Nadal's Spanish turkey [15-4])
---------------
Small upset chance #1: If Milos Raonic (CAN) [19] can defeat Monaco, he might pose a threat to Nadal with his big serve and forehand. But he would have to blow Nadal off the Roland Garros court in 3 sets, and nobody has ever done that.

Bigger upset chance #2: if John Isner (USA) [10] returns to his early spring form, wins his early round matches fairly easily and upsets David Ferrer. An in-form 2012 Isner can beat any player in the world. A semifinal of an in-form and not worn out Isner vs. Nadal would be a treat. Isner is the only man to ever take Nadal to 5 sets (last year), and Isner's play has improved since then. He can eat up Nadal's topspin and in my estimation has the fortitude to match Nadal. In the end, Isner beat Djokovic at Indian Wells on his testicular fortitude.
But one of Mr. Isner's problems has been showing the stamina he needs to go deep into a major event.
Given Isner's very recent clay form, I have doubts he can make it to the semifinal. But if he gets there, watch out!

Respectfully,
masterclass
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:38 AM   #752
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

good stuff general masterclass.

isner is back to earth on clay. he wont last long in paris.

as a matter of fact both milos and isner are going to be early casualties in paris. they simply dont have the movement.

so forget about those 2 being any kind of factors on the red clay in the best of 5 sets foremats. i think we overestimated them.

isner has had a couple of good matches on the red stuff but now its over. its back to reality.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:43 AM   #753
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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Originally Posted by Clay Death View Post
good stuff general masterclass.

isner is back to earth on clay. he wont last long in paris.

as a matter of fact both milos and isner are going to be early casualties in paris. they simply dont have the movement.
Good day General.

They don't need movement if they are on with their serve General.
A 145 mph serve can still do damage on the RG courts.
They will be difficult to break if their serve is on. If you can't break you can't win. And a tiebreaker always favors the big server.
Problem is if they are not on with their serve...they will be destroyed because of lack of movement as you said.
And it might be tough for Isner to keep his serve going all the way to the SF.

So I still expect that there will be no upset...as I meant with the probable road... Raonic is about a 30-1 chance.
Isner has about a 40-1 chance to make it all the way to the SF. But if he does, and looks in-form, then he is about a 2-1 chance vs. Nadal.

Respectfully,
masterclass

Last edited by masterclass : 05-26-2012 at 06:49 AM.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:51 AM   #754
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

How was your trip Sir Samson? I'm surprised you are still awake...

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Old 05-26-2012, 06:54 AM   #755
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

true but you dont have to break them every game. if you have just need 2 poor games in 2 sets then consider those 2 sets gone against the top players.

that usually seals their fate.

big servers usually dont get very far at rg. they never have. give isner 3 matches and milos 2 and will be out of there.

ferru and berdych might have a decent tournament. d-pot does have a knee issues so we have to see if it is improving.


one semi is set: fed vs nole. and this is probably the most interesting 1/2. lot of folks will be looking at fed and nole`s progress here.

who is in the other semi other than the clay warrior? that is the question.

i feel bad for ferru already if it is going to be him. poor guy cant seem to catch a break.

Last edited by Clay Death : 05-26-2012 at 07:03 AM.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:55 AM   #756
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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Originally Posted by Clay Death View Post
good stuff general masterclass.

isner is back to earth on clay. he wont last long in paris.

as a matter of fact both milos and isner are going to be early casualties in paris. they simply dont have the movement.

so forget about those 2 being any kind of factors on the red clay in the best of 5 sets foremats. i think we overestimated them.

isner has had a couple of good matches on the red stuff but now its over. its back to reality.
General, in all likelihood you are correct... they probably need to wait for the US Open events.

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Old 05-26-2012, 06:58 AM   #757
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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How was your trip Sir Samson? I'm surprised you are still awake...

Respectfully,
masterclass
long but excellent. it is 1:55 am here general.

usually i try to unwind for about an hour or so after such a long day. also i wanted to look at the draw and some other sports news.

i almost always dont get back until around 1 am and then i sip red wine and unwind.

its the weekend so i can sleep late in the morning.


looking forward to the battles on sunday. this is the most significant RG in terms of history in quite a while.
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Old 05-26-2012, 06:59 AM   #758
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

Quote:
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true but you dont have to break them every game. if you have just need 2 poor games in 2 sets then consider those 2 sets gone against the top players.

that usually seals their fate.

big servers usually dont get very far at rg. they never have. give isner 3 matches and milos 2 and will be out of there.

ferru and berdych might have a decent tournament. d-pot does have a knee issues so we have to see if it is improving.


one semi is set: fed vs nole. and this is probably the most interesting 1/2. lot of folks will be looking at fed and nole`s progress here.

who is in the other semi other than the clay warrior? that is the question.

i feel bad for ferru already if it is going to be him. poos guy cant seem to catch a break.
Agreed, No, he can't catch a break. I would have rather seen Ferrer and Murray in Djokovic's half and Federer in Nadal's half. That would have been very interesting. Given Murray's health right now, I think he falls anyway. But Ferrer would stand a good chance vs. Djokovic on clay, and I think Ferrer deserves a Final after all the years of good hard work he has put in.

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Old 05-26-2012, 07:02 AM   #759
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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General, in all likelihood you are correct... they probably need to wait for the US Open events.

Respectfully,
masterclass

affirmative. their best results are probably going to be on the north american hard courts circuit after wimbledon as you have suggested.

i just dont see them doing much damage here.

isner may have some possiblities on grass this year since he is quite improved. we will just have to wait and see.
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:04 AM   #760
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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Agreed, No, he can't catch a break. I would have rather seen Ferrer and Murray in Djokovic's half and Federer in Nadal's half. That would have been very interesting. Given Murray's health right now, I think he falls anyway. But Ferrer would stand a good chance vs. Djokovic on clay, and I think Ferrer deserves a Final after all the years of good hard work he has put in.

Respectfully,
masterclass

nole got very lucky with his draw. he has almost no opposition until the semis.



so what is happening at ejacustan? are the legless ejacuzees pretty happy with the draw there?

or are they crying about it?
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:15 AM   #761
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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nole got very lucky with his draw. he has almost no opposition until the semis.
Yes. Looks like #1 and #2 both had good fortune with the draw.
By the way, I think there will be at least one other surprise.

I don't think Federer will make it to the semifinal. I think he'll get defeated by Berdych/Del Potro in the QF after some tough matches early. He got a tough draw. But still this may work out the best for him in the long run for Wimbledon/Olympics/US Open. If he exits in the QF, he loses only 480 points, and he doesn't get taxed too much by a Roland Garros final.

Then he says goodbye to clay, goes to Halle to win his 5th title of the year, his 75th career title, and then on to Wimbledon.

If Nadal and Djokovic play a tough Roland Garros final, don't expect to see them in Halle, and if it is a very tough final, don't expect to see them do well at Wimbledon.

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Old 05-26-2012, 07:20 AM   #762
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

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nole got very lucky with his draw. he has almost no opposition until the semis.



so what is happening at ejacustan? are the legless ejacuzees pretty happy with the draw there?

or are they crying about it?
The usual general .
They say Uncle Toni fixed the draw and are betting on who is more powerful, Uncle Toni or Simon Reed.
Reality.. neither Uncle Toni or Simon Reed have anything do with it.

The players have to go out and play. Nadal may listen to Uncle Toni, but will do it his way, and Djokovic will do it his way.

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Old 05-26-2012, 07:41 AM   #763
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

nadal doesnt listen to tony. its tony who has to listen to nadal now. and also some of the fans in the stands are yelling about the same things. it is not rocket science.

they are probably all telling him to get a little closer to the baseline and stop backpedaling when he strikes the ball. the idea is to be in position and lean into the ball and the court.

also nadal knows 10,000 more about winning matches than tony ever knew.

tony is there now for emotional support. it is nadal`s dad`s decision. nadal also could never be hard on others like he is on tony. yes he is actually hard on tony.

so there willl never ever be another coach for the clay warrior. and quite franlky there is no need now. only 2-3 additional years left for nadal at the top of the sport.

he is going to keep winning french opens and that is more than good enough.
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:45 AM   #764
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

getting sleepy now general. see you tomorrow.
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Old 05-26-2012, 07:47 AM   #765
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Default Re: Ye Olde Castle - Vol.# 50 - RG draw is out ! Who falls in the boobytrap first ?

Federer: Huge pressure on Djokovic in Paris
Ticker - Friday, May 25, 2012


Roger Federer, who missed an opportunity to win four straight majors twice in his career, in 2006 and 2007, when he was stopped by Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros after winning Wimbledon, the U.S. Open, and Australian Open titles consecutively, says the pressure on Novak Djokovic to try a similar feat at this year's French Open will be immense.

"It's an amazing achievement in itself to win three in a row,' Federer said. "Four in a row is just another amazing step. I think the toughest part is the back end of it. I was twice in the finals, twice a couple sets away. Okay, I mean, I was playing Rafa [in Paris], which doesn't make it a whole lot easier. But it's easier to maybe start with the French in this era and then finishing it on the hard court. But it's amazing for tennis right now that we have Novak in this situation again, where we had Rafa [trying to do it] at the Australian Open [in 2011]. But the hard part is every point you play, every game you play, the pressure you face, and just answering the questions time and time again. It's fun because you're talking about the highest of accomplishments. But at the end of the day, you just like to play the matches and not talk about it that much."
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