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Old 04-23-2012, 08:03 PM   #16
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Let's see. Djokovic-Nadal 2-10 on clay. Federer-Nadal 2-10 on clay.
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Old 04-23-2012, 11:04 PM   #17
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

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Originally Posted by Looner View Post
Let's see. Djokovic-Nadal 2-10 on clay. Federer-Nadal 2-10 on clay.
Huge difference between Novak's two wins and Federer's. Even fedtards recognize that. Madrid is madrid, but what Novak did to him last year in Rome, you have not seen since he was a teenager.He just got beat by the better player.
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Old 04-23-2012, 11:18 PM   #18
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Besides the Djoker no one has a chance. Nadal is too good on clay.
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Old 04-23-2012, 11:21 PM   #19
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Threats for this year's clay season:
Frauderer, Mugray, Isner, del Pony.

Notes: all have to play at their best to have any chance.
Murray always has the game, but almost always plays passively and gets a total beating from Rafa.
Roger always has chances, especially on faster clay like RG and Madrid. Last year, he choked away major chances to win the RG final. Not many players even get those chances.
Del Pony had similar chances at Davis Cup last year, but he seems to take a LONG time to get into form, and he hasn't played well against top 4 recently.
Isner... if he plays lights out, can do it.

Realistically, Nole will beat him again, Roger could take a set at Madrid....someone like Isner will take a set at RG.
Rafa looks set to win Barcelona... maybe Rome. Might lose the final of Madrid, and RG will depend on these results, but would be hard to see Rafa not making it past the semifinal.
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Old 04-23-2012, 11:40 PM   #20
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Last year, two players who played better and were the closest to beat Rafa in best-of-five on clay were Del Potro and Isner.

Del Potro lost to Rafa in 4 sets in DC in Spain. He was outhitting Rafa, winning the first set 6-1 and getting an early break in the second, it was an incredible display. But he got tired and started misfiring. He was late to every ball, couldn't set up his shots. He dug deep in the fourth set and was very, very close to force a fifth set (served for it, was two points away).

He should have improved his fitness greatly (so he won't get tired so easily) and he really should be serving better - his serve in that DC match was beyond pathetic, he was basically using it merely to start the rally.

He can definitely trouble Rafa on clay, perhaps even beat him.

Isner - Took Rafa to five at RG last year, is a much improved player this year as well. With that serve, he's a threat to beat anyone. Even the great Rafa will find it extremely hard to break Isner.

The only problem with Isner is that he tends to get drawn into long early round matches. If he can avoid that and get to Rafa while being relatively fresh, he's a threat.

Both these players benefit from being extremely tall, Rafa's topspin forehands go right into their hitting zone. Delpo took tremendous advantage of this in 2009 and even last year: even far from his best, he played two great matches against Rafa on the latter's favorite surfaces, grass (Wimbledon) and clay (DC) in which only a few points made the difference.

You might say that Rafa ended up winning both matches and you'd be correct, but I believe posters here actually watch the matches and analyse what happen and don't just look at results. It was obvious from Nadal vs Isner last season and especially Nadal vs Delpo in DC that these two players have the ability to create problems for Rafa on clay. And they are both playing much better this season.

Of course Rafa is always favorite on clay, but, Nole aside, these two seem to be the biggest threat. If they are playing at their top level, they have a chance to trouble and perhaps beat Rafa on clay in best of five. I believe Rafa will not want them on their side of the draw. He would be favorite to beat them, but he'd prefer someone else to deal with them, I'm sure.


There's also of course Federer, who should never be ruled out, and some potential surprise package. After all, nobody saw Soderling coming in 2009. Tennis is unpredictable like that.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:03 AM   #21
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Del Potro can do some incredible things against Rafa if RG plays as fast as last year and Delpo plays his best tennis. I think it was somekind of superhuman performance from Rafa to turn around an inform Del Potro playing out of this world tennis in DC, specially when the matchup is so bad against Rafa. I dont expect Rafa to always be able to do that, I can see Delpo do some serious damage but I fear they need to play each other before SF which is just 1/4 they are even drawn that way and even not sure Delpo gets there.

Delpo probably wouldnt beat Federer/Djokovic in RG QF and he is not favorite against Murray neither.

Other than Delpo I think Berdych inform can do some damage to Nadal, once again depending on RG claycourts playing very fast. I think Murray and Federer have the same chanse which is a very small one but still nr4 in my list.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:05 AM   #22
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

No-one. Lol @ clowns thinking Del-Shitro stands a chance against Nadal on clay (or any surface)
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:16 AM   #23
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

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Originally Posted by sexybeast View Post
Del Potro can do some incredible things against Rafa if RG plays as fast as last year and Delpo plays his best tennis. I think it was somekind of superhuman performance from Rafa to turn around an inform Del Potro playing out of this world tennis in DC, specially when the matchup is so bad against Rafa. I dont expect Rafa to always be able to do that, I can see Delpo do some serious damage but I fear they need to play each other before SF which is just 1/4 they are even drawn that way and even not sure Delpo gets there.

Delpo probably wouldnt beat Federer/Djokovic in RG QF and he is not favorite against Murray neither.

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No-one. Lol @ clowns thinking Del-Shitro stands a chance against Nadal on clay (or any surface)
You always have the most detailed and insightful tennis analyses
Other than Delpo I think Berdych inform can do some damage to Nadal, once again depending on RG claycourts playing very fast. I think Murray and Federer have the same chanse which is a very small one but still nr4 in my list.
Super human from Rafa? No, super bad fitness from Del Potro, on both DC matches. Two days before, he was in cruise control against Ferrer until he got tired and started getting late to every ball. The same thing happened against Rafa. Until the middle of the second set, that was some of the best power hitting I've ever seen But he completely ran out of gas. Not to mention his serve was pathetic, he was merely using it to start the rally, wasn't getting any free points or even putting Rafa in trouble with his serve.


He should be much better this time, so I'm sure Rafa does not want him in his quarter at all - in fact I'm sure none of the top seeds bar Federer (against whom Delpo seems to have developed some sort of complex) does.

Berdych? He has the tools, but he has been known to fold time and again against Rafa. On paper, he does have the game to trouble Rafa though.

Federer? You can always expect the unexpected from someone like Federer.

Murray? No chance whatsoever. He doesn't have the weapons to blow Nadal off the court and he sure as hell ain't outgrinding Nadal over five sets on clay, that's an impossible task.

Isner is a special case and part of this equation imo, a different type of player in the tour right now. He can lose to a player outside the top 100 on any given day, but with that serve he's always a threat. If he's "on", you're in for a long match, even if you are Rafael Nadal on clay. Taking first serve %, first serve quality and placement, second serve quality/placement, intelligent serving, clutch serving, etc... all into account, Isner might just have the best serve of all-time.


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No-one. Lol @ clowns thinking Del-Shitro stands a chance against Nadal on clay (or any surface)

You always have the most detailed and insightful analyses

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Old 04-24-2012, 12:18 AM   #24
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

nadal has only 1 adversary that he cannot defeat on clay:

nadal. he is his own worst enemy.

and that reminds me:

i am not happy with the clay warrior.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:18 AM   #25
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Either Dimitrov or Raonic.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:22 AM   #26
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

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Originally Posted by Clay Death View Post
nadal has only 1 adversary that he cannot defeat on clay:

nadal. he is his own worst enemy.

and that reminds me:

i am not happy with the clay warrior.
You wouldn't be happy with him if he won every match 6-0 6-0 from now on. He just nabbed his 20th masters 1000 title and demolished Djokovic in doing so. He's clear RG favorite. Lighten up, man.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:25 AM   #27
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

the 4 guys that come to mind for me are:

almagro - one of the few spaniards who doesnt bend over for him

federer

isner

bellucci (I know that he's 0-2 against nadal on clay but if he ever could play the way he did in madrid i'd be interested to see how that would go)
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:26 AM   #28
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

Federer is obviously the biggest threat. Many of their clay matches have been close, and all it takes is a bad day in the office for Rafa. Yea, Rafa always has a great chance of winning on slow clay in particular, but it's far from a sure thing.

Next is Del Potro, followed by Isner, Murray, Ferrer and Dolgopolov. Gasquet and Berdych are also unpredictable on clay (a nice fast one in particular).

Any one of those guys *can* win, its just very tough to zone long enough to actually beat Rafa.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:28 AM   #29
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

of course i would not be happy with him general topspin doc.

there is no room for softness. not in sparta.

no room for complacency.


i could start to feel better after 2 more french opens and at least this next wimbledon.

there is some chance that can i call the dogs off after that.

until then, there is no rest, no retreat, and no surrender.
cheers.
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Old 04-24-2012, 12:33 AM   #30
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Default Re: Aside from Djokovic who is Nadal's biggest threat on clay?

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Originally Posted by Haelfix View Post
Federer is obviously the biggest threat. Many of their clay matches have been close, and all it takes is a bad day in the office for Rafa. Yea, Rafa always has a great chance of winning on slow clay in particular, but it's far from a sure thing.

Next is Del Potro, followed by Isner, Murray, Ferrer and Dolgopolov. Gasquet and Berdych are also unpredictable on clay (a nice fast one in particular).

Any one of those guys *can* win, its just very tough to zone long enough to actually beat Rafa.
Gasquet and Dolgopolov? I'd eat my hat if that happened. Gasquet has no power, no forehand, no serve...

Dolgopolov struggles to win games off Rafa on hard court, let alone three sets on clay. It's just a terrible match-up for Dolgo.

Murray and Ferrer? Check their clay head-to-head with Rafa, especially Ferrer's. Those guys have no weapons and they are not going to outgrind Rafa on clay, that's mission impossible.

To have a chance to beat Rafa, you need to have the weapons to hit him off the court, that's the only way. Trying to outgrind him on clay will achieve nothing.
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