[Roamed]

FOR EXHAUSTIVE STATISTICS - GO HERE:

Originally Posted by tennis_analyst

MOVED TO http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=200697

I aggregated all my links, data description, and examples in this single post:
http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=200697

I've had a look at all the figures for every match played between Roger, Rafa, Nole and Murray to see which were the closest matches, the most one-sided, and the biggest 'escapes' in terms of % of points won. All the matches are below, but to summarise:

• The most one-sided match was Federer def. Nadal 6-3 6-0 at the World Tour Finals 2011 with 67% of the points won
• The closest matches were Djokovic def. Murray Madrid 06 (1-6, 7-5, 6-3) and Nadal def. Federer Australian Open 2009 (7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2) with 50% of the points won each
• The biggest 'escape' was Nadal def. Federer Dubai 2006 (2-6, 6-4, 6-4) with 47% of the points won

There's a lot you could do with these figures, like calculate average points won in wins and things like that, I might try and work that out later. Anyway I hope people find it interesting!

• Djokovic def. Murray - Average points won 57.7%
• Murray def. Nadal - Average points won 57.0%
• Murray def. Djokovic - Average points won 56.6%
• Federer def. Nadal - Average points won 56.2%
• Federer def. Murray - Average points won 56.1%
• Djokovic def. Nadal - Average points won 56.0%
• Nadal def. Djokovic - Average points won 55.4%
• Federer def. Djokovic - Average points won 55.1%
• Nadal def. Murray - Average points won 55.1%
• Murray def. Federer - Average points won 54.3%
• Djokovic def. Federer - Average points won 54.0%
• Nadal def. Federer - Average points won 53.6%

From this we can see the result most likely to be a beatdown is Djokovic def. Murray; the result most likely to be close is Djokovic def. Federer, followed closely by Nadal def. Federer. Fed's three 'loss' matchups are the closest.

67%
Federer - Nadal World Tour Finals 2011 6-3, 6-0: 67%-33%

66%
Djokovic – Murray Indian Wells 2007 6-1, 6-0: 66%-34%

64%
Nadal – Federer French Open 2008 6-3, 6-1, 6-0: 64%-36%

63%
Djokovic – Nadal Paris 2009 6-2, 6-3: 63%-37%
Nadal - Djokovic Monte Carlo 2012 6-3, 6-1: 63%-37%
Nadal – Murray Wimbledon 2008 6-3, 6-2, 6-4: 63%-37%

62%
Nadal – Murray Indian Wells 2009 6-1, 6-2: 62%-38%

61%
Djokovic – Murray Indian Wells 2007 6-2, 6-3: 61%-39%
Federer – Nadal Masters Cup 2007 6-4, 6-1: 61%-39%
Murray – Djokovic Cincinnati 2011 6-4, 3-0 RET: 61%-39%
Nadal – Federer Miami 2011 6-3, 6-2: 61%-39%

60%
Djokovic – Murray Monte Carlo 2008 6-0, 6-4: 60%-40%
Federer – Murray World Tour Finals 2010 6-4, 6-2: 60%-40%
Murray – Nadal Tokyo 2011 3-6, 6-2, 6-0: 60%-40%
Nadal – Djokovic Rome 2007 6-2, 6-3: 60%-40%

59%
Djokovic – Federer Dubai 2011 6-3, 6-3: 59%-41%
Federer – Djokovic Australian Open 2007 6-2, 7-5, 6-3: 59%-41%
Federer – Djokovic Cincinnati 2009 6-1, 7-5: 59%-41%
Federer – Djokovic World Tour Finals 2011 6-1, 6-4: 59%-41%
Federer – Murray US Open 2008 6-2 7-5, 6-2: 59%-41%
Nadal – Djokovic French Open 2007 7-5, 6-4, 6-2: 59%-41%
Nadal – Murray Hamburg 2008 6-3, 6-3: 59%-41%

58%
Djokovic - Federer French Open 2012 6-4, 7-5, 6-3: 58%-42%
Djokovic – Murray Australian Open 2011 6-4, 6-2, 6-3: 58%-42%
Djokovic – Nadal Cincinnati 2008 6-1, 7-5: 58%-42%
Djokovic – Nadal Indian Wells 2008 6-3, 6-2: 58%-42%
Djokovic – Nadal Montreal 2007 7-5, 6-3: 58%-42%
Murray – Djokovic Miami 2009 6-2, 7-5: 58%-42%
Murray – Federer Shanghai 2010 6-3, 6-2: 58%-42%
Murray – Nadal Rotterdam 2009 6-3, 4-6, 6-0: 58%-42%
Nadal – Djokovic French Open 2006 6-4, 6-4 RET: 58%-42%

57%
Djokovic – Federer Miami 2009 3-6, 6-2, 6-3: 57%-43%
Djokovic – Nadal Cincinnati 2009 6-1, 6-4: 57%-43%
Federer – Nadal World Tour Finals 2010 6-3, 3-6, 6-1: 57%-43%
Nadal – Djokovic Indian Wells 2007 6-2, 7-5 57%-43%

56%
Federer – Djokovic Monte Carlo 2008 6-3, 3-2 RET: 56%-44%
Federer – Murray World Tour Finals 2009 3-6, 6-3, 6-1: 56%-44%
Federer – Nadal Hamburg 2007 2-6, 6-2, 6-0: 56%-44%
Murray – Djokovic Dubai 2012 6-2, 7-5: 56%-44%
Murray – Federer Indian Wells 2009 6-3, 4-6, 6-1: 56%-44%
Murray – Nadal Toronto 2010 6-3, 6-4: 56%-44%
Murray – Nadal Australian Open 2010 6-3, 7-6(2), 3-0 RET: 56%-44%
Nadal – Djokovic World Tour Finals 2010 7-5, 6-2: 56%-44%
Nadal – Djokovic Rome 2009 7-6(2), 6-2: 56%-44%
Nadal – Djokovic Masters Cup 2007 6-4, 6-4: 56%-44%
Nadal – Federer Monte Carlo 2007 6-4, 6-4: 56%-44%
Nadal – Federer Miami 2004 6-3, 6-3: 56%-44%
Nadal – Federer Monte Carlo 2008 7-5, 7-5: 56%-44%
Nadal – Murray Monte Carlo 2009 6-2, 7-6(4): 56%-44%

55%
Djokovic – Nadal Madrid 2011 7-5, 6-4: 55%-45%
Djokovic – Nadal World Tour Finals 2009 7-6(5), 6-3: 55%-45%
Djokovic – Nadal US Open 2011 6-2, 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-1: 55%-45%
Djokovic – Nadal Miami 2007 6-3, 6-4: 55%-45%
Federer – Djokovic Dubai 2007 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3: 55%-45%
Federer – Djokovic US Open 2008 6-3, 5-7, 7-5, 6-2: 55%-45%
Federer – Murray Bangkok 2005 6-3, 7-5: 55%-45%
Federer – Murray Dubai 2012 7-5, 6-4: 55%-45%
Federer – Nadal Wimbledon 2006 6-0, 7-6(5), 6-7(2), 6-3: 55%-45%
Federer - Nadal Indian Wells 2012 6-3 6-4
Murray – Djokovic Toronto 2008 6-3, 7-6(3): 55%-45%
Murray – Federer Doha 2009 6-7(6), 6-2, 6-2: 55%-45%
Murray – Nadal US Open 2008 6-2, 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4: 55%-45%
Nadal – Djokovic French Open 2008 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(3): 55%-45%
Nadal – Djokovic Monte Carlo 2009 6-3, 2-6, 6-1: 55%-45%
Nadal – Federer Madrid 2011 5-7, 6-1, 6-3: 55%-45%
Nadal – Murray US Open 2011 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 6-2: 55%-45%
Nadal – Murray Wimbledon 2011 5-7, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4: 55%-45%
Nadal – Murray French Open 2011 6-4, 7-5, 6-4: 55%-45%

54%
Djokovic – Federer Australian Open 2008 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(5): 54%-46%
Djokovic - Federer Rome 2012 6-2, 7-6(4): 54-46%
Djokovic – Murray Rome 2011 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2): 54%-46%
Djokovic - Murray Australian Open 2012 6-3, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 7-5
Djokovic – Nadal Rome 2011 6-4, 6-4: 54%-46%
Djokovic – Nadal Indian Wells 2011 4-6, 6-3, 6-2: 54%-46%
Djokovic – Nadal Miami 2011 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(4): 54%-46&
Djokovic – Nadal Wimbledon 2011 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3: 54%-46%
Federer – Djokovic US Open 2007 7-6(4), 7-6(2), 6-4: 54%-46%
Federer – Djokovic US Open 2009 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5: 54%-46%
Federer – Djokovic Shanghai 2010 7-5, 6-4: 54%-46%
Federer – Murray Cincinnati 2009 6-2, 7-6(8): 54%-46%
Federer – Murray Australian Open 2010 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(11): 54%-46%
Federer – Nadal Masters Cup 2006 6-4, 7-5: 54%-46%
Murray – Federer Dubai 2008 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-4: 54%-46%
Murray – Federer Toronto 2010 7-5, 7-5: 54%-46%
Nadal – Djokovic US Open 2010 604, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2: 54%-46%
Nadal – Federer French Open 2007 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4: 54%-46%
Nadal – Murray Monte Carlo 2011 6-4, 2-6, 6-1: 54%-46%
Nadal – Murray Toronto 2008 7-6(2), 6-3: 54%-46%

53%
Djokovic – Federer Rome 2009 4-6, 6-3, 6-3: 53%-47%
Djokovic – Federer Basel 2009 6-4, 4-6, 6-2: 53%-47%
Djokovic – Federer US Open 2010 5-7, 6-1, 5-7, 6-2, 7-5: 53%-47%
Djokovic – Federer US Open 2011 6-7(7), 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 7-5: 53%-47%
Federer – Djokovic Monte Carlo 2006 6-3, 2-6, 6-3: 53%-47%
Federer – Djokovic Toronto 2010 6-1, 3-6, 7-5: 53%-47%
Federer – Djokovic Basel 2010 6-4, 3-6, 6-1: 53%-47%
Federer – Djokovic French Open 2011 7-6(5), 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5): 53%-47%
Federer – Nadal Madrid 2009 6-4, 6-4: 53%-47%
Murray – Djokovic Cincinnati 2008 7-6(4), 7-6(5): 53%-47%
Murray – Federer Cincinnati 2006 7-5, 6-4: 53%-47%
Murray – Federer Madrid 2008 3-6, 6-3, 7-5: 53%-47%
Nadal – Djokovic Wimbledon 2007 3-6, 6-1, 4-1 RET 53%-47%
Nadal – Federer French Open 2005 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3: 53%-47%
Nadal – Federer Monte Carlo 2006 6-2, 6-7(2), 6-3, 7-6(5): 53%-47%
Nadal – Federer French Open 2011 7-5, 7-6(3), 5-7, 6-1: 53%-47%
Nadal – Federer French Open 2006 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(4): 53%-47%
Nadal – Murray Australian Open 2007 6-7(3), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1: 53%-47%

52%
Djokovic – Federer Indian Wells 2011 6-3, 3-6, 6-2: 52%-48%
Djokovic – Federer Australian Open 2011 7-6(3), 7-5, 6-4: 52%-48%
Djokovic - Nadal Australian Open 2012 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5
Federer – Nadal Miami 2005 2-6, 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-1: 52%-48%
Federer – Nadal Wimbledon 2007 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(4), 2-6, 6-2: 52%-48%
Murray – Federer Masters Cup 2008 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5: 52%-48%
Nadal – Djokovic Queens 2008 7-6(6), 7-5: 52%-48%
Nadal – Djokovic Hamburg 2008 7-5, 2-6, 6-2: 52%-48%
Nadal - Djokovic French Open 2012 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5: 52%-48%
Nadal – Federer Hamburg 2008 7-5, 6-7(3), 6-3 52%-48%
Nadal - Federer Australian Open 2012 6-7(5), 6-2, 7-6(5), 6-4
Nadal – Murray Wimbledon 2010 6-4, 7-6(6), 6-4: 52%-48%

51%
Nadal – Federer Madrid 2010 6-4, 7-6(5): 51%-49%
Nadal – Federer Wimbledon 2008 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7: 51%-49%
Nadal – Murray Madrid 2007 7-6(5), 6-4: 51%-49%

50%
Djokovic – Murray Madrid 2006 1-6, 7-5, 6-3: 50%-50%
Nadal – Federer Australian Open 2009 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-2: 50%-50%

49%
Djokovic – Federer Montreal 2007 7-6(2), 2-6, 7-6(2): 49%-51%
Nadal – Federer Rome 2006 6-7(0), 7-6(5), 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(5): 49%-51%

48%
Nadal – Djokovic Madrid 2009 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(9): 48%-52%
Nadal – Murray World Tour Finals 2010 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6): 48%-52%

47%
Nadal – Federer Dubai 2006 2-6, 6-4, 6-4: 47%-53%



Stats unavailable:
Federer – Djokovic Davis Cup 2006 6-3, 6-2, 6-3
Nadal – Djokovic Davis Cup 2009 6-4, 6-4, 6-1
Nadal – Djokovic Olympics 2008 6-4, 1-6, 6-4

[Naudio Spanlatine]

AMAZING MATCHES

[sexybeast]

Shows you Federer is mentally weaker than Nadal/Djokovic and his stats against Nadal in French Open is just mindblowingly similar around 53-47 except in 2008.

I doubt Federer could defeat Nadal or Djokovic winning less than 50%. At the very least Federer needs 52-48 to defeat anyone, that match in Wimbledon 2007 is the strongest mental match he ever played.

[coonster14]

I like this thread. Great work

[Johnny Groove]

Great work and stats

Damn, look at all of Nadal's escapes, 50% or less.

Dubai 06 vs. Fed, WTF 2010 RR vs. Murray, Madrid 09 SF vs. Nole, Fedal Rome 06, and the AO 09 final. Even the Wimbledon epic in 08 was 51-49.

[Roamed]

Originally Posted by coonster14

I like this thread. Great work

Thanks!

I've added stats about the relative closeness of various results, although it's slightly skewed as it gives each match equal weighting whether it was a close 6-3 6-3 or a close 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, but I couldn't be bothered to count up each point Hopefully it's still useful.

• Djokovic def. Murray - Average points won 58.2%
• Murray def. Nadal - Average points won 57.0%
• Murray def. Djokovic - Average points won 56.8%
• Federer def. Nadal - Average points won 56.3%
• Federer def. Murray - Average points won 56.3%
• Djokovic def. Nadal - Average points won 56.2%
• Federer def. Djokovic - Average points won 55.1%
• Nadal def. Djokovic - Average points won 55.1%
• Nadal def. Murray - Average points won 55.1%
• Murray def. Federer - Average points won 54.3%
• Nadal def. Federer - Average points won 53.7%
• Djokovic def. Federer - Average points won 53.5%

From this we can see the result most likely to be a beatdown is Djokovic def. Murray; the result most likely to be close is Djokovic def. Federer, followed closely by Nadal def. Federer. Fed's three 'loss' matchups are the closest.

[Naudio Spanlatine]

this is the best thread ever

true great talents

[Sham Kay]

Genuinely great stats for statmunchers to chew on. Practically endless amounts of discussion points. Hopefully you'll be updating as these 4 continue their rivalries, I imagine there will be alot more matches between them over the next few years.

[Arakasi]

Originally Posted by Roamed

Thanks!

I've added stats about the relative closeness of various results, although it's slightly skewed as it gives each match equal weighting whether it was a close 6-3 6-3 or a close 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, but I couldn't be bothered to count up each point Hopefully it's still useful.

• Djokovic def. Murray - Average points won 58.2%
• Murray def. Nadal - Average points won 57.0%
• Murray def. Djokovic - Average points won 56.8%
• Federer def. Nadal - Average points won 56.3%
• Federer def. Murray - Average points won 56.3%
• Djokovic def. Nadal - Average points won 56.2%
• Federer def. Djokovic - Average points won 55.1%
• Nadal def. Djokovic - Average points won 55.1%
• Nadal def. Murray - Average points won 55.1%
  
• Murray def. Federer - Average points won 54.3%
• Nadal def. Federer - Average points won 53.7%
• Djokovic def. Federer - Average points won 53.5%

Federer the hardest to dominate? Or the weakest mentally?

[Roamed]

Originally Posted by Arakasi

Federer the hardest to dominate? Or the weakest mentally?

I'd say a bit of both. Regarding mental issues, as an example, if you look at all of Roger and Rafa's matches, I counted it up, Roger has had *more* break points than Rafa - he's just converted a significant fraction less. Regardless of whether or not it's his weaker mentality that's making him lose these matches, however, you can't deny he is statistically less likely to get thrashed, which is good.

Edit: Yeah I just confirmed this.

Federer vs Nadal:

• Federer has had 228 Break Points, has converted 83; a percentage of 36.4%
• Nadal has had 226 Break Points, has converted 105; a percentage of 46.4%

[thrust]

I would think that winning 4 games in 3 sets was worse than losing 3 games in 2 sets, despite the points % was. Games won is more important than points won, IMO.

[RogerFedererNo1]

Originally Posted by Roamed

I'd say a bit of both. Regarding mental issues, as an example, if you look at all of Roger and Rafa's matches, I counted it up, Roger has had *more* break points than Rafa - he's just converted a significant fraction less. Regardless of whether or not it's his weaker mentality that's making him lose these matches, however, you can't deny he is statistically less likely to get thrashed, which is good.

Edit: Yeah I just confirmed this.

Federer vs Nadal:

• Federer has had 228 Break Points, has converted 83; a percentage of 36.4%
• Nadal has had 226 Break Points, has converted 105; a percentage of 46.4%

I think that Nadal´s mentally stronger than Federer in their matches but Nadal has a big adavantage on break points due to being a Lefty. His serves to Fed´s backhand makes it a lot easier for him. In my opinion it´s very interesting that Federer had 100% BP conversation in his last two wins (Madrid 09 (2/2), London 2010 (3/3)) and Tuesday he converted the first three break points, too.

[stewietennis]

Does being a lefty factor into it? 0-15, 0-30 and 0-40: Fed would have gotten to that Break Point opportunity even when on the receiving end of a lefty serve. If Rafa works his way back up to deuce, his serve wouldn't have been the deciding factor right?

[RogerFedererNo1]

Most break points are played on advantage side, so Nadal can serve to Fed´s backhand .. but anyway, that does not explain 1/17

[hipolymer]

It's crazy how almost all of the matches are near 50%. Just shows you that only a few points decide the victor.