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Old 01-31-2012, 09:48 PM   #1
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Default This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

I think he's getting to the age where a failed deep run in RG would put him at a serious physical disadvantage at Wimbledon. I'm starting to think he should be more selective with which baskets he places his eggs in; come out absolutely firing in the most tip top shape and practice on the grass courts.

I know it's early days this season but this is my current intuition.
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Old 01-31-2012, 10:29 PM   #2
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

Quote:
Originally Posted by MatchFederer View Post
I think he's getting to the age where a failed deep run in RG would put him at a serious physical disadvantage at Wimbledon. I'm starting to think he should be more selective with which baskets he places his eggs in; come out absolutely firing in the most tip top shape and practice on the grass courts.

I know it's early days this season but this is my current intuition.
MY current intuition is that Rog is already busy planning a kind of a "Farewell Tour", as sad as it may sound. For the first time in his life, he's already confirmed to play South America coming December. His appearances in 'minor' tournaments, Stockholm, and now Rotterdam, also show in that direction.

I think all Fed fans should be realistic by now. He's been on the decline for quite a while now - imho, ever since 2008 - and as bad as it sounds, nothing lasts forever...
His achievements over the past couple of years are still AMAZING considering his age, and his semifinals at the USO, and the current AO, despite the disappointing results, are nothing to sniff at. He's still *there*, folks!

Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. And NO WAY I'm counting him out on another freak GS-title - as long as he still manages to reach the QFs/semi, he's in the running alright. All it takes is just the stars to align...
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Old 01-31-2012, 10:57 PM   #3
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

If I had to guess, I'd say he's planning on an extremely light pre-RG clay season through Madrid, Rome, Monte Carlo. Given that it's Olympic year and it's going to be a long arduous summer both mentally and physically I would have expected him to play light now-ish, but the fact that he's playing Davis Cup, Rotterdam and Dubai (for now) signals in my opinion that he's going to be cutting the slack elsewhere, so it must be pre-RG. Don't see him planning on doing badly at any slam at this point, even if it is RG, but he's probably not expecting to go that deep. Will probably play Halle after that as well what with the lifetime contract thing and the fact that he ignored it to not play last year.

If I had to guess, looking at his schedule...

Rotterdam - get as much pointswise as possible, a win would be nice
Dubai - get as much pointswise as possible, a win would be nice
Indian Wells - as deep as possible
Miami - as deep as possible
(month off)
Madrid - experiment time, don't expect to go deep
Rome - experiment time, don't expect to go deep
RG - will go for it but not be demoralised by a loss
Halle - should go for it unless he went deep at RG, another grass title is LONG overdue
Wimbledon - will put everything into it
(month off)
Olympics - will put everything into it
(two weeks off)
Toronto - maybe a bit of experimentation on his hardcourt game
Cincy - usually does well there so will probably try to go deep as long as it doesn't jeopardise USO chances
US Open - will put everything into it
(two weeks off)
Shanghai - I would say he'll skip this but he seemed genuinely sorry to miss it last year so maybe he'll be back, plus it is indoors
Basel - will put everything into it
Paris - don't expect him to play, he's won it once now which is enough, plus it's the week before WTFs
WTFs - If he qualifies () will put everything into it
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Old 01-31-2012, 11:23 PM   #4
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

Roger isn't anywhere near done, but yes he should focus more specifically on tournaments suited to his game. Conversely, deep runs at any tournament gives him confidence, and that confidence gives him rhythm which ultimately equals good performances/possible titles. If you really think about it, Rafa is still the only person who gives him real trouble. Novak is difficult but far more beatable than Nadal for Rog. Grand Slams ultimately come down to what side of the draw he's in, Roger does still have the capability to win 2/3 slams imo. It's so incredibly annoying to think that his success would be far greater if the tour was 2/3 medium fast and 1/3 slow... so annoying. Another Wimbledon would be incredible, it's the only title i want him to win again (maybe olympics) I could settle with nothing else if he got another, a swansong slam 2013/14 would be absolutely amazing.
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:47 PM   #5
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

Quote:
Originally Posted by MatchFederer View Post
I think he's getting to the age where a failed deep run in RG would put him at a serious physical disadvantage at Wimbledon.
How would a failed deep run in RG put him at a physical disadvantage for Wimbledon? It would give him more time to adjust to grass and probably play the tournament in Halle as preparation for Wimbledon.

Let's not forget that RG was Roger's best GS tournament last year. His SF there was probably one of the best matches he played in the last season and his performance in the final wasn't that bad either even though he lost.

There's no guarantee that he will go deep in Wimbledon if he doesn't focus on the tournaments before. It was surely not a physical factor which made him lose to Tsonga in Wimbledon last year.

And I think we don't have to talk about his match against Novak at the USO...
Roger was unlucky in that match, even more considering the fact that it was the second time he lost to him after having MPs.

Roger still has the game to go deep in GS tournaments but there's also the risk now that he can run into a player who plays really well (RG 2010 against Söderling comes to mind or Wimbledon 2010 against Berdych or the already mentioned Wimbledon match against Tsonga) and upsets him.

And wouldn't it be an ideal scenario that Novak beats Rafa in Paris this year and Roger beats Novak in the final? (Dreams don't hurt )

It would be wonderful if Roger would get one more Grand Slam title and/or the Olympic Gold medal but right now it seems far more likely that someone upsets Roger in those tournaments instead of Rafa or Novak.
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Old 02-04-2012, 12:26 PM   #6
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

putting all your eggs in one basket never a good idea...ps MatchFederer love your avatar
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:47 PM   #7
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eden View Post
How would a failed deep run in RG put him at a physical disadvantage for Wimbledon? It would give him more time to adjust to grass and probably play the tournament in Halle as preparation for Wimbledon.

Let's not forget that RG was Roger's best GS tournament last year. His SF there was probably one of the best matches he played in the last season and his performance in the final wasn't that bad either even though he lost.

There's no guarantee that he will go deep in Wimbledon if he doesn't focus on the tournaments before. It was surely not a physical factor which made him lose to Tsonga in Wimbledon last year.

And I think we don't have to talk about his match against Novak at the USO...
Roger was unlucky in that match, even more considering the fact that it was the second time he lost to him after having MPs.

Roger still has the game to go deep in GS tournaments but there's also the risk now that he can run into a player who plays really well (RG 2010 against Söderling comes to mind or Wimbledon 2010 against Berdych or the already mentioned Wimbledon match against Tsonga) and upsets him.

And wouldn't it be an ideal scenario that Novak beats Rafa in Paris this year and Roger beats Novak in the final? (Dreams don't hurt )

It would be wonderful if Roger would get one more Grand Slam title and/or the Olympic Gold medal but right now it seems far more likely that someone upsets Roger in those tournaments instead of Rafa or Novak.
A deep run that doesn't involve victory.
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:49 PM   #8
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

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Originally Posted by tennis2tennis View Post
putting all your eggs in one basket never a good idea...ps MatchFederer love your avatar
Spreading all the eggs too thinly might yield no victory but thinking more about purely Wimbledon and the US Open (and the Olympics, whatever) might give Roger a greater chance at actually claiming one of the Slams this year. So then, 3 baskets not one, as opposed to 4.
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Old 02-06-2012, 04:00 AM   #9
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

you cant be a top player if you think like that .I personally feel the place he has least chance of winning is wimbledon .The grass doesnt suit his game anymore
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Old 02-06-2012, 06:37 AM   #10
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

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Originally Posted by kingiskingfineon View Post
you cant be a top player if you think like that .I personally feel the place he has least chance of winning is wimbledon .The grass doesnt suit his game anymore
yeah right

Wimbledon has been his worst slam in the last two years - in 10 with injury and 11 coz of a massive choke.But how quickly people tend to overlook that he has still won the title a frigging 6 times. I would anyday like Federer's chances at Wimbledon over the French or even Australian.
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Old 02-06-2012, 09:25 AM   #11
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

Quote:
Originally Posted by MatchFederer View Post
I think he's getting to the age where a failed deep run in RG would put him at a serious physical disadvantage at Wimbledon. I'm starting to think he should be more selective with which baskets he places his eggs in; come out absolutely firing in the most tip top shape and practice on the grass courts.

I know it's early days this season but this is my current intuition.
I've thought the same for long : last two years I think Fed was not enough fit physically to play his best on grass, not enough dynamic ... and this year there are two important tournaments on grass. He can still play very well there if he is very dynamic as he was last year in Roland-Garros.

Also it looks very important to me that he stays fit for the US Open, as I think now it's his best chance to win a slam, as it seems they will cancel super-saturday, and esp as Djokovic and Nadal might be very tired once the US Open arrives, as it seems that they will compete a lot against each other on clay.

I would also like personally that he tries Davis Cup as much as he can, esp as there will be no more Davis cup match between QF in april and the US Open. And this also means trying to stay fit for a possible semifinal right after the US Open.

As for the schedule, I just trust Roger and his team. It seems that Fed will play Indian Wells as he has an exhibition planned against Roddick the week before, but we will see about Dubai, Miami and Madrid or Roma. A priori I would like Fed skipping them and having as much rest and preparation possible between the end of february and may.

Eden missed the word "deep" which means tiring (like last year).
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Old 02-06-2012, 05:03 PM   #12
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

It clearly does not look like he is going to focus only on majors this year. Davis cup, Rotterdam and Duabi(and an exo) before Indian Wells. Clearly not a typical Federer schedule.
Maybe he does not try too hard in the clay season?
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:40 AM   #13
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

No, Eden didn't make a mistake, I just didn't make it clear what I meant by a 'failed deep run' - basically a deep run that doesn't involve victory and leaves him with a lesser chance to be physically and/or mentally prepared for Wimbledon etc.
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Old 02-07-2012, 08:43 AM   #14
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
It clearly does not look like he is going to focus only on majors this year. Davis cup, Rotterdam and Duabi(and an exo) before Indian Wells. Clearly not a typical Federer schedule.
Maybe he does not try too hard in the clay season?
there is surely a plan behind that, people on MTF should understand that players and their team know much better than us about their preparation : they know many things about the player's physique that we don't know.

As for me, I spoke a lot about hardly playing before Wimbledon but actually according to my calculation, Federer should still be careful to still be ahead of Tsonga for the top-4 seeds in Wimbledon. Currently he's 745 points ahead but that's not that much if Tsonga makes good results in next months.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:51 AM   #15
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Default Re: This might sound negative - I think Roger should focus on Wimbledon - (OG) - US

The US Open schedule will probably not change this year : still there would be a super-saturday.

Imo it's a very bad news for Roger ... expect if it rains like 4 previous years and final has to be played on monday
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