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Old 12-06-2011, 02:23 AM   #16
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

you would get odds of about 4/1 for roger not winning a slam. I would bet nothing.
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But he lost 23 times against you.
's right. We have to also throw into the mix. But I do not think it is currently the decisive factor. But he has achieved in my opinion too much. Maybe this is crucial if I move him even closer after major victories. But 14 or 17 Grand Slam titles is a significant difference. At the present time there is no question that he must be the greater player than me.

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Old 12-06-2011, 02:55 AM   #17
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SetSampras View Post
He doesn't win next year, chances are good he never will again... So he has 4 shots
Roger is in excellent shape and very durable . He has more than 4 shots left to win a GS
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Old 12-06-2011, 03:18 AM   #18
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

I am pretty confident he will win another slam. I think one more for his swansong, and then pack up the bags and onto new and big things, leaving behind the best legacy in tennis history and what will probably never be matched.

so I would be comfortable betting nothing
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:15 AM   #19
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

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Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
I would bet my parents' life. Pretty cheap bet if you ask me.
You better start crying then, cause Fed will win The Golden CYGS next year.
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:17 AM   #20
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

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You better start crying then, cause Fed will win The Golden CYGS next year.
If I made that bet and Olderer won CYGS next year, I'd likely be laughing.
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:27 AM   #21
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

Any GS win for Rogie would be great to see from this point on. Each one in its own way has historical significance. I'd love to see Wimbledon again personally!
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:51 AM   #22
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

If he can still win the supposed "5th" grand slam, the World Tour Finals, he still has a shot.

Looking at his results last year, two Semis and a Finals, it's still looking pretty good when you compare it to the "previous year before the final slam" of other legends:
Becker - 1995 F & SF - then won his last major at Australian Open 1996
Sampras - 2001 4R, 4R & F - then won his final at US Open 2002
Agassi - 2002 QF & F - then won his last major at Australian Open 2003

Of course, he could easily stop winning majors altogether like some other legends
McEnroe - won majors in 1983 & 1984 then no more
Lendl - won majors in 1989 & 1990 then no more
Edberg - won majors in 1991 & 1992 then no more

Federer could go a maybe 2 seasons between majors which wouldn't be new – Becker had a 4 season drought, Agassi had 3, Wilander had 2 and a bunch had a year where they didn't win one.
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:54 AM   #23
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspindoctor View Post
I would bet my parents' life. Pretty cheap bet if you ask me.
why dont you bet your own life ?

would be the cheapest I can ever think of....
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Old 12-06-2011, 05:01 AM   #24
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

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Originally Posted by Everko View Post
Anything you want. He is not winning another slam. Nadal will be there to stop him
The only thing less certain than Fed winning a slam is you being right in a prediction. I'd bet everything I have, including my life, just because you said it wouldn't happen.
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Old 12-06-2011, 06:10 AM   #25
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

I think a more intriguing bet would be future slams over/under 1.5. I think he has one more in him, but 2? I don't know, that seems a bit tricky.
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Old 12-06-2011, 06:42 AM   #26
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

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Originally Posted by Ajk822 View Post
I think a more intriguing bet would be future slams over/under 1.5. I think he has one more in him, but 2? I don't know, that seems a bit tricky.
For 2012 I'd put it something like....

50% 0
40% 1
8% 2
2% 3


If we see another slam season like of late, then 2013 would probably increase that 0 to 70%, 2014 to 90%.

By extension, that suggests approx 30% chance he wins no more.

Last edited by philosophicalarf : 12-06-2011 at 06:53 AM.
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Old 12-06-2011, 06:59 AM   #27
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

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Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
For 2012 I'd put it something like....

50% 0
40% 1
8% 2
2% 3


If we see another slam season like of late, then 2013 would probably increase that 0 to 70%, 2014 to 90%.

By extension, that suggests approx 30% chance he wins no more.
If that was an actual bet I think they would have to raise the odds on the over side to around 10 to 1. I'd probably throw 20 bucks on that, just because.
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Old 12-06-2011, 07:09 AM   #28
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Federer_28 View Post
Roger is in excellent shape and very durable . He has more than 4 shots left to win a GS
Shape doesn't guarantee slams though.. He looks like he ran out of gas at the USO.. Who knows how his shape holds up if he has to go 5. Its a bit different compared to faster point, short matches indoors
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Old 12-06-2011, 07:06 PM   #29
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SetSampras View Post
Shape doesn't guarantee slams though.. He looks like he ran out of gas at the USO.. Who knows how his shape holds up if he has to go 5. Its a bit different compared to faster point, short matches indoors
He didn't ran out of gas at the US open, he had a mental lapse and couldn't finish the job .

and FYI the US open is a very fast court
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Old 12-07-2011, 01:06 AM   #30
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Default Re: How much would you bet on Federer not ever again winning a slam?

After he ran out of gas. I'm not quite sure. Everything was looking great, the backhand was clicking, the footwork was there, the serve was reliable, but after seeing him run out of gas, I'm almost certain that 2012 will be his last year for a slam. He'll get a slam here, then end the next few year slam less and eventually retire. So either 17 or 18 slams, but no more. Even 20 would be a difficult stretch unless something miraculous happens and Nadal and Djokovic get career threatening injuries or a major drop in performance.
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