[legolandbridge]

He's probably kicking himself in the ass for not getting that 286-week record at #1. Winning a few rounds at Monaco probably would have sealed the deal. Or winning Estoril?

[philosophicalarf]

Number 1 is Nadal's for as long as he's fit - that's been the case for two years. Simple arithmethic:

4600-5000 points on clay
wimbledon for another 1200-2000
slow hard (Aus, IW, Miami) maybe another 2000 points average


That's over 8k baseline, then add in points from canada/cinci/us open/250s/500s/etc/etc. Fed would probably need to hold 3 slams at once to overtake him.

The real question for me is if Fed can stay in the top4, to keep the easy draws rolling in, and maybe allow him to get up to 20 slams.

[Kworb]

I'm not sure. He's been struggling for three years now. If Nadal hadn't gotten injured he probably would have never regained #1 since he first lost it. There are too many glitches now in his game to be able to perform consistently enough. I would love for him to break Sampras's record because he is so much more worthy of holding it, but he does not play in a mug era like Pete did so it'll be really difficult.

[Sapeod]

He might hopefully, but he'll get some more slams, which is always as good.

[star]

He's got a good chance next year. I don't expect Nadal to defend all his clay points. He had a poor (for him) clay run and not as much as he can do on grass. He has every opportunity to regain lost ground.

Whether he will do it is something we will have to wait and see.

[Luinir]

no he will fall

[twolf21]

It's such a bummer, being only ONE WEEK away from tying Sampras' record.

[Bilbo]

Originally Posted by twolf21

It's such a bummer, being only ONE WEEK away from tying Sampras' record.

it's his own fault. he got sloppy in non slams.

[Marc23]

If he is lucky

[Furball]

No, we are witnessing a decline. Nadal will decline too. Berdych, Soderling, Del Potro, and Gulbis will take over.

[Montego]

I think it will be tough. The only reasonable chance for him is the very good claycourt season in 2011. I am not writing him off, but he has a mountain to climb with fit Nadal and young guns around the corner.

He is the biggest champion, so we might expect the unexpected, but he will be 30 next year, not too much time left.

so I voted for "maybe"

[andy neyer]

No way.

[Clydey]

Not unless he's fortunate enough for Rafa to get injured again.

[Macbrother]

In 2008 I was certain he would get it back. Now.. it's really difficult to say. If you trust Federer's presser and don't believe he's in denial, then he can get #1 back, absolutely. Reality-wise, I think it would be very difficult but not completely out of the question. Something like 25-30% chance.

[andy neyer]

Originally Posted by Macbrother

In 2008 I was certain he would get it back. Now.. it's really difficult to say. If you trust Federer's presser and don't believe he's in denial, then he can get #1 back, absolutely. Reality-wise, I think it would be very difficult but not completely out of the question. Something like 25-30% chance.

This was how I felt as well.

btw, i made this same thread like a month ago

http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=163254