Will Federer regain the #1 spot? - Page 29 - MensTennisForums.com

MensTennisForums.com

MenstennisForums.com is the premier Men's Tennis forum on the internet. Registered Users do not see the above ads.Please Register - It's Free!

View Poll Results: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the top?

Yes, and he will cement his reputation as the best player ever 200 55.56%
No, he will forever be two weeks short of the record 160 44.44%
Voters: 360. You may not vote on this poll

Closed Thread

Old 03-04-2012, 01:54 PM   #421
country flag FedererSlam
Registered User
 
FedererSlam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 26
Posts: 548
FedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by networthy View Post
Federer is slowly increasing his chances of regaining the top spot. Let's assume he needs about 11,000 points (I realize Djokovic has more than that now but almost by defition he would have fewer points if another player had that many). Here's how many countable points Federer has picked up since Basel 2011 and one possible roadmap for how he could get to 11,000 by the time Basel 2012 rolls around:

Countable points since Basel 2011 (6 tournaments)
Basel: 500
Paris: 1000
Tour finals: 1500 pts
Australian Open: 720
Rotterdam: 500
Dubai: 500
Subtotal: 4720

Grand Slams (3)
Two finals: 2400 pts (1200 each)
One SF: 720 pts
Subtotal: 3120

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (7)
One win: 1000 pts
One final: 600 pts
Two SF's: 720 pts (360 each)
Three QF's: 540 pts (180 each)
Subtotal: 2860

Other (1)
Olympics bronze: 340 pts
Subtotal: 340

TOTAL: 11,040 points

In the age of Djokovic and Nadal, how doable is this for Federer? By the way, this roadmap assumes he plays 17 tournaments, one fewer than the 18 maximum countable.
This seems a reasonably conservative estimate and potentially achievable even going into the US Open. If we assign those points to tournaments, I don't find the following scenario unimaginable:

Countable points since Basel (6):
Basel: 500
Paris: 1000
Tour finals: 1500 pts
Australian Open: 720
Rotterdam: 500
Dubai: 500
SUB: 4720

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (6)
Cincinatti - W: 1000
Indian Wells/Miami/Madrid - SF: 1080
Rome/Toronto - QF: 360
SUB: 2440 (7160)

Olympics Bronze - 340
Halle - 250
SUB: 590 (7750)

Grand Slams:
US/AO - SF [achieved]: 720
RG/WI - 2F (2400) or QF/SF and W: 2360/2720
SUB: 3080/3040/3400

TOTAL: 10830/10790/11150

What do people think? The Masters/Olympics/Halle predictions seem completely reasonable and only a slight improvement on last years results.. these estimates could even be surpassed.

Of course that leaves RG/Wimb as the big variables. Either 2F or QF/S and a W would be a huge effort.. but that is what is required to become number 1.
__________________
Roger Federer
16 Grand Slam Titles
The Serena Slam
27 Grand Slam Titles
FedererSlam is offline View My Blog!  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 

Old 03-04-2012, 01:58 PM   #422
country flag Mystique
Registered User
 
Mystique's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Age: 23
Posts: 2,727
Mystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond reputeMystique has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Federer has a sizeable lead over Djokovic right now in the Race to Shanghai 2012. Almost 2000 points to be exact.
If he can somehow nab a Masters or two before Shanghai and a Slam, he has a great chance at regaining Number 1, even if temporarily. Thats all he needs really. He has finished the yr Number 1 more than enough times for me as a fan, we just need two more weeks
Go Fed!
__________________
"In my opinion he's the best player ever. When you play tennis, playing Federer is kind of a dream because you can see he does everything you would love to do on the court" - Fabrice Santoro
Mystique is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 02:04 PM   #423
country flag GSMnadal
Registered User
 
GSMnadal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Netherlands
Age: 22
Posts: 16,452
GSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond reputeGSMnadal has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Big problem for Federer is that he needs to win a slam, and that ain't happening.

He can win all the Basels and Rotterdams he wants, if Nadal and Djokovic are going to split those 8000/4800 points between them, there's not much he can do.
__________________
RAFAEL NADAL

'Rafael Nadal is the best ever' - John McEnroe

1 AO - 9 RG - 2 W - 2 USO
GSMnadal is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 02:08 PM   #424
country flag sexybeast
Registered User
 
sexybeast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 3,258
sexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Big problem for Federer is that he needs to win a slam, and that ain't happening.

He can win all the Basels and Rotterdams he wants, if Nadal and Djokovic are going to split those 8000/4800 points between them, there's not much he can do.
Why would this be happening forever? In 2012/2013 I predict there will be finals without neither Djokovic or Nadal. In any slam except RG Del Potro can beat Nadal and Murray/Federer can beat Djokovic or Murray beat Nadal and Federer beat Djokovic and so on. Tsonga, Berdych and some others can create upsets, even someone like Ferrer can beat Nadal on hardcourts.

Tennis history is not so static, Djokovic-Nadal had their 3 slam finals in a row which doesnt mean they will get another 3 slam finals in a row.
__________________
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
sexybeast is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 02:09 PM   #425
country flag FedererSlam
Registered User
 
FedererSlam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 26
Posts: 548
FedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond reputeFedererSlam has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Big problem for Federer is that he needs to win a slam, and that ain't happening.

He can win all the Basels and Rotterdams he wants, if Nadal and Djokovic are going to split those 8000/4800 points between them, there's not much he can do.
This is true to an extent... in the scenario above he could make 2 finals.. or 1 quarter and 1 win (wimbledon) which is not totally out of the question.

Even if he fails to achieve this, he could compensate by performing better in ATP events than I have predicted, which, again, is not totally out of the question. For instance, if the distribution were to change (marginally) as follows:

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 (6)
Cincinatti - W: 1000
Indian Wells/Miami/Madrid - (F/2SF): 1320
Rome/Toronto - (SF/QF): 540
SUB: 2860

Grand Slams:
US/AO - SF [achieved]: 720
RG/WI - (F/SF): 1920
SUB: 2640

TOTAL: 10810

As irrelevant or MMish you deem Basels and Rotterdams to be in the overall scheme of things, Federer has won enough over the last 6 months or so to give himself a hefty cushion of points.

Edit: and as sexybeast points out^, Nadal and Djokovic are not totally invulnerable at slams.
__________________
Roger Federer
16 Grand Slam Titles
The Serena Slam
27 Grand Slam Titles

Last edited by FedererSlam : 03-04-2012 at 02:21 PM.
FedererSlam is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 06:36 PM   #426
country flag Alex999
Registered User
 
Alex999's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Kanata
Posts: 9,526
Alex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond reputeAlex999 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

again and again... Fed will never get to be #1 AGAIN. too many delusional people here. just, get over it. when did Fed win his last slam? please.
Alex999 is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 06:38 PM   #427
country flag BigJohn
Banned!
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 10,825
BigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

come one people you have to get real. that is just silly.
BigJohn is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 06:49 PM   #428
country flag ossie
Registered User
 
ossie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Age: 29
Posts: 6,069
ossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond reputeossie has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

how long are people going to keep deluding themselves that fed is going to win any more slams? i guess you can't just expect someone to stop being insane..that's why they are insane.
ossie is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 06:58 PM   #429
country flag BigJohn
Banned!
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 10,825
BigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

it's all really silly, lol. the many fans of federer have to start to be serious, come on people.
BigJohn is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 07:03 PM   #430
country flag sexybeast
Registered User
 
sexybeast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 3,258
sexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by ossie View Post
how long are people going to keep deluding themselves that fed is going to win any more slams? i guess you can't just expect someone to stop being insane..that's why they are insane.
Far more incredible stuff has happened in the past, like who expected Connors to still win a slam when he was beeing dominated by the 5 years younger Borg and 10 years younger Mcenroe 79-81 and hit the age of 30 in 1982 without having won a slam in 4 years. Go take a lwhat happened in 1982....
'
How about Sampras going 2 years without winning a single title and looking like a corpse out there when beeing destroyed by the Hewitts and lesser known players at that time, just to win Usopen 2002?
__________________
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.

Last edited by sexybeast : 03-04-2012 at 07:09 PM.
sexybeast is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 07:06 PM   #431
country flag EddieNero
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Age: 49
Posts: 3,007
EddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond reputeEddieNero has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by ossie View Post
how long are people going to keep deluding themselves that fed is going to win any more slams? i guess you can't just expect someone to stop being insane..that's why they are insane.
If Del Potro managed to grab a slam then anything can happen.
EddieNero is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 07:07 PM   #432
country flag Sunset of Age
Anathemaniac
 
Sunset of Age's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: The Wall.
Posts: 41,908
Sunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond reputeSunset of Age has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigJohn View Post
it's all really silly, lol. the many fans of federer have to start to be serious, come on people.
I think a vast majority of (sane) Fed fans already realize that the chances of this to happen are around 0.0000001%.
In order for this to happen, Fed should have won the AO, which he couldn't do. It's very nice to have seen him do so brilliantly during the fast/indoor HC-season, but with the slow-and-high-bounce season coming up now - nope.
Even the more 'no!' as after the USO (which I don't see him winning either), he'll have a bucketload of points to defend himself.

I do get this feeling that Fed, and Murray, and perhaps a few other players, will be able to make the gap between #1, #2 and the rest of the field a little less great. Which surely would make things a little more interesting come the remainder of the 2012 season - and even moreso, beyond.
__________________
"It's getting colder, I'm getting colder, older, it's getting colder...

Am I still here? As one, with The Fear?
Am I still alive? I'm still f*cking ... Here...!"


"The Storm Before The Calm"

Anathema

Into music of the PROG-Dorky-kind? visit my blog or MTF's Prog Rock Thread.
Sunset of Age is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 07:08 PM   #433
country flag Corey Feldman
Banned!
 
Corey Feldman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 95,413
Corey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond reputeCorey Feldman has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

has he earned more points than Nole so far in 2011 yet?

if he could win 1 of the summer slams and Nole doesnt - could have some chance

but dont really care, winning a GS beats anything ranking related
Corey Feldman is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 07:18 PM   #434
country flag sexybeast
Registered User
 
sexybeast's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 3,258
sexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond reputesexybeast has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset of Age View Post
I think a vast majority of (sane) Fed fans already realize that the chances of this to happen are around 0.0000001%.
Chanses that Djokovic or Nadal get injured and loses a great part of the season should be around 10%, both getting injured is 1% and then I can be very conservative when I say Federer is 50/50 to become nr1, 0.5%. So I dont know what kind of math you are using there, ofcourse there are better odds for Federer to get nr1, like what if Djokovic's 2011 was freakish and he goes back to 2010 season and Nadal is really declining?
__________________
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
sexybeast is offline View My Blog!  
Old 03-04-2012, 07:20 PM   #435
country flag BigJohn
Banned!
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 10,825
BigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond reputeBigJohn has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Will Federer regain the #1 spot and break Sampras's record for most weeks at the

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset of Age View Post
I think a vast majority of (sane) Fed fans already realize that the chances of this to happen are around 0.0000001%.
In order for this to happen, Fed should have won the AO, which he couldn't do. It's very nice to have seen him do so brilliantly during the fast/indoor HC-season, but with the slow-and-high-bounce season coming up now - nope.
Even the more 'no!' as after the USO (which I don't see him winning either), he'll have a bucketload of points to defend himself.

I do get this feeling that Fed, and Murray, and perhaps a few other players, will be able to make the gap between #1, #2 and the rest of the field a little less great. Which surely would make things a little more interesting come the remainder of the 2012 season - and even moreso, beyond.
i don't think you understand just how silly it all is. lol come on people.
BigJohn is offline View My Blog!  
Closed Thread


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


Copyright (C) Verticalscope Inc
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
vBCredits v1.4 Copyright ©2007, PixelFX Studios