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Old 11-05-2012, 11:07 PM   #1066
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

Does someone have an idiot's guide to the US presidential election. As I understand it, each state has a number of votes in the choice and there a few key states but the whole process is not exactly obvious to me.
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Old 11-05-2012, 11:20 PM   #1067
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

The winner by popular vote in each state gets a certain number of ''electoral'' votes, depending on the population size of the state.

The candidate with most electoral votes wins the presidency. Key states describes those states that may choose either a Rep or Dem this time around and don't have a consistent past. Safe states are those that almost always vote for the same party.

Many states traditionally vote one way or the other and are considered ''safe'' for either the Rep or Dem. So the electoral votes for those states can be safely assigned before election day, if you are doing predictions. When the ''safe'' states probable electoral votes are summed, you can then predict how many of the ''tossup'' states each candidate must win to be the overall winner.

And because of the large population of OHIO, you will hear all the commentators say that to win the presidency Romney must win Ohio. He also needs a few of the smaller tossup states, but OHIO is critical. Obama's safe states plus Ohio would give him more than 50% of the electoral votes.

I find it curious that the number of electoral votes available is an even number, thus there could be a tie. Worse, when the tie is broken there could be a Rep president and a Dem vice-president, because then congress picks the president and the senate picks the VP. This horrible scenario could easily be avoided by adding one more electoral vote. It could be given to a state with biggest population growth. The there could never be a tie in the electoral college and the nightmare scenario disappears.

Also, the candidate with the most votes in the nation may not be the one with the most electoral votes. But this is common in elections and happens in the UK too. A win in a state by a margin of 1,000,000 votes gets you the same electoral votes as a win in that state by 1 vote.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:11 AM   #1068
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

Oh look, our resident fundy has totally taken over this thread with his crazy.

Anyway, here are some final poll numbers out of battleground states that will prove crucial in determining who wins the election:

According to a Columbus Dispatch poll, and University of Cincinnati poll, Obama is +2 in Ohio. Obama is leading in every poll out of Ohio. His lead appears to be somewhere between 2-4 points. So if the people turnout, Obama will win Ohio. A win in Ohio is effectively a win of the election for Obama.

NBC did their most intensive poll in Virginia and showed Obama with +1 over Romney. My state is going to go down to the wire, and again, is all about turnout. Could go either way. Depends largely on the black vote in Richmond, and the overall turnout in NOVA where Barack has a clear advantage.

Des Moines register, a paper that endorsed Romney in Iowa, has Obama +5. CNN has Obama +3 overall in Iowa. That state looks like one you can put in Obama's corner.

New England College and WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll have Obama up +4 in the state. There has been indication of tightening in this state, though. Potentially. Most polls have Obama somewhere between 2 and 4 points up. I think Barack wins this state, but it could be close.

Polls in Florida are all over the map. There are a few that have Romney with as much as a +6, and there are some with Obama ahead slightly. What is evident is Obama has the early vote lead in Florida. Based on a Gravis Marketing poll, which is a pollster I don't respect much mind you, Obama has the +5 edge in early votes, Romney has the +4 lead in voting tomorrow, and 50% have already voted. If you add that up, it equals a 1% win for Obama. But I expect Romney to win Florida.

Obama now appears to have a solid lead in Colorado. CNN has it +2. NBC has it +2. Denver Post has it +2. A live interview poll done Friday through Sunday has Obama +4 with almost 70% having already voted.

As it stands right now, Obama wins the election. It comes down to turnout for Barack. Republicans still have the motivation edge on Democrats. That could end up crucial. But the early voting numbers are similar for Obama to what they were in 2008. That's huge for him and gives him a padding that Romney has to make up tomorrow.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:30 AM   #1069
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

5 replies? And I was worried atheists were sensitive on this issue.


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Isn't it the real problem, hm? Science is all about objectivity; it's not what we think is true, but what is true, with materialized proof.
Problem is even so-called "objectivity" is based on the work of strangers. Everything is relative, including truth which depends on whom you choose to trust - again purely subjective - and their eye witness accounts and the way they're communicated through man-made language and numerals. We can try to define what's real by what we see, hear, feel and smell but that's only because those are the senses we humans are limited to. There's no way to find an "ultimate truth", even if it does exist.


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Check out the video I posted, you can see a Republican strategist/spokesperson advocating this. It's really difficult to understand in Europe and we don't have such a problem in Finland except maybe within certain sects of the church. There are also people who are campaigning on teaching "the alternative" in science classes, don't know whether they're republican or not though. However, there were MANY republican presidential candidates that deny evolution.

Look, there is of course room for faith in this world and I wouldn't take it away from anyone. The beginning of the universe, how it all got here... there are philosophical arguments (and could be discussed in philosophy class !). I personally don't buy the religious ones but some people do and it's ok. However, evolution isn't debatable and it creates a lot of unnecessary friction between the scientific community and religion.
I can't find your video.

Evolution is debatable and I'm not talking about anything even remotely religious. Any respected scientist will tell you it is by far the most plausible theory but no-one will claim it's been proven beyond doubt. But that's beside the point because obviously it should be taught in schools and no religious theory should go anywhere near a science class. There's plenty of strong evidence to support the theory of evolution so we can pretty much teach it as fact.


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Unless you want to nitpick over the difference between Creationism and Intelligent Design, then I name George Bush.

I am not sure why it has to be a Republican. The teaching of Creationism in science class has been a public issue in the US for some time.

Science journals and publications publish evidence on the subject discussed (observations made) and may go on to theorise based on that observed evidence. The same can not be said for the bible because there is no evidence offered to substantiate the claims made. Also, science journals don't publish anonymous articles.
I guess it doesn't have to be republican, though I can't imagine a democrat proposing religious theories in science classes. I'll happily criticize any candidate from any party that suggests such a idea.

Yes, the cornerstone of faith is the belief in concepts which can't be proven rationally. Having said that, even if I were trying to look at this rationally, the bible can certainly be considered evidence. You may have good reason not to trust it but that's your subjective opinion.


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Try again.

Evidence is "that which attests to the truth of an assertion". Subjectivity plays a role in borderline cases, but that is not the same as saying "all evidence is subjective" which is what you are saying. The more subjective a piece of evidence is, the worse the evidence. Good evidence is evidence that is independent of personal interpretation.

Take the statement "I can juggle five balls at a time". I can provide a wide arrange of evidence attesting to the veracity of that claim. I can try to show that is true by:

a) Stating that my mother says I can.
b) Showing that it says so in a book (my diary).
c) Performing the act.

c) is a better piece of evidence than a) or b). It is not 100% conclusive evidence (there is no such thing as that). I could have hypnotised you; it could be that I have an identical twin brother, unknown to all of those involved, who can do it; I could be an all-powerful, mind-bending alien... but if confronted with such a situation, we would all agree c) is undoubtedly more solid than a) and b).

A piece of evidence will be solid if it succeeds at offering proof for the veracity of a claim, and it will be shaky evidence if it doesn't.

Religious "evidence" has a formidable track record of being wrong about the things that we can subject to scrutiny. Its realm has been confined to the space occupied by untestable, unsupported propositions about things the veracity of which we can't determine.

Science's strength is that it works. Its evidence pays up, it is accessible to all, it is palpable. The proof that quantum mechanics works is the fact that you're reading these lines right now on a computer. The proof that the theory of relativity works is in every GPS navigator in cars all over the world. That is not subjective, it is objective. And on account of it being objective, it is better.

For there is no good tree that brings forth rotten fruit; nor again a rotten tree that brings forth good fruit.
We're getting very "deep" here.

Everything you've said above is based on eye witness accounting. I can only juggle 5 balls at a time if someone trustworthy sees it and records it. 20 people could make this claim even though it might not be true. Or one liar could claim it happened and no-one will believe it even though it's true.

Science works based on the reality of the world we automatically accept at birth. We don't question this reality, we just go along with it and try to understand it as best as we can. We put our trust in people who love us or make us happy, either intentionally or inadvertently. Either way, our decisions are influenced and conclusions reached either by believing our mortal senses (sight, sound etc) or our imagination. Both play equally valid roles in the way we try to seek our ultimate truth, if it does exist.


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Rick Perry, Michelle Bachman, many more. Google it
You Google it. You're the one making the claim.

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Old 11-06-2012, 01:35 AM   #1070
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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Amazing! So I'm forced to give an opinion. Why should I?
This is a forum - where people voice their opinions.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:39 AM   #1071
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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You Google it. You're the one making the claim.
No, you were the one asking people to name ONE Republican advocating the teaching of Creationism in schools.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:45 AM   #1072
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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No, you were the one asking people to name ONE Republican advocating the teaching of Creationism in schools.
Following my posts very closely I see.

I could spend an hour searching and not find anything. Why not just post a link if you know when and where they said it. I'm not going to waste my time.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:52 AM   #1073
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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Evolution is debatable and I'm not talking about anything even remotely religious. Any respected scientist will tell you it is by far the most plausible theory but no-one will claim it's been proven beyond doubt..
Why do you write sentences like that? Why do you boldly state that no-one will claim it's been proven beyond doubt?

It took me two minutes to find ''Almost all scientists believe evolution is a fact. The 5% who do not are almost exclusively evangelical Christians who believe in a literal interpretation of the bible.''
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:58 AM   #1074
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

Am I the only one capable of posting links here to back up my conclusions?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evoluti...act_and_theory

Quote:
Facts refer to "events that occur" or "the state of being of things" that can be publicly verified, proven through experiment, or witnessed by direct observation. Facts exist independent of theory or knowledge of them.[3][5] In science, however, a fact is not a statement of absolute certainty. Scientific knowledge necessarily abandons the concept of absolute certainty to remain consistently conjectural, hypothetical.[6] When referring to or representing facts through theory, scientists (including evolutionary biologists) subscribe to different philosophies, such as scientific realism, materialism, or pragmatism. Accordingly, evolutionary biologists suggest that the scientific method reveals truths about "real nature" that is separate from our thoughts on the matter.[3][7][8][9] That all forms of life on Earth are related by common descent with modification is one of the most reliable and empirically tested theories in science that continues to explain vast numbers of facts in biology.
Evolution is officially a theory.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:55 AM   #1075
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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Originally Posted by Filo V. View Post
Oh look, our resident fundy has totally taken over this thread with his crazy.

Anyway, here are some final poll numbers out of battleground states that will prove crucial in determining who wins the election:

According to a Columbus Dispatch poll, and University of Cincinnati poll, Obama is +2 in Ohio. Obama is leading in every poll out of Ohio. His lead appears to be somewhere between 2-4 points. So if the people turnout, Obama will win Ohio. A win in Ohio is effectively a win of the election for Obama.

NBC did their most intensive poll in Virginia and showed Obama with +1 over Romney. My state is going to go down to the wire, and again, is all about turnout. Could go either way. Depends largely on the black vote in Richmond, and the overall turnout in NOVA where Barack has a clear advantage.

Des Moines register, a paper that endorsed Romney in Iowa, has Obama +5. CNN has Obama +3 overall in Iowa. That state looks like one you can put in Obama's corner.

New England College and WMUR-University of New Hampshire poll have Obama up +4 in the state. There has been indication of tightening in this state, though. Potentially. Most polls have Obama somewhere between 2 and 4 points up. I think Barack wins this state, but it could be close.

Polls in Florida are all over the map. There are a few that have Romney with as much as a +6, and there are some with Obama ahead slightly. What is evident is Obama has the early vote lead in Florida. Based on a Gravis Marketing poll, which is a pollster I don't respect much mind you, Obama has the +5 edge in early votes, Romney has the +4 lead in voting tomorrow, and 50% have already voted. If you add that up, it equals a 1% win for Obama. But I expect Romney to win Florida.

Obama now appears to have a solid lead in Colorado. CNN has it +2. NBC has it +2. Denver Post has it +2. A live interview poll done Friday through Sunday has Obama +4 with almost 70% having already voted.

As it stands right now, Obama wins the election. It comes down to turnout for Barack. Republicans still have the motivation edge on Democrats. That could end up crucial. But the early voting numbers are similar for Obama to what they were in 2008. That's huge for him and gives him a padding that Romney has to make up tomorrow.
Barring all the polls being dead wrong Romney needs a borderline miracle to win the election. Obama doesn't even need Ohio if he wins Virginia. Everything has to break Romney's way for him to win.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:00 AM   #1076
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

US elections are like the Olympics come around once every 4 years except more cheating.
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I definitely would have preferred Gaba winning as he needs the points much more, but Jan would have beaten him anyway. I expect Hajek to destroy Machado, like 6-1 6-2.
Machado wins 6-2 6-1
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:09 AM   #1077
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

Obama will win. Will be like a veteran champ beating a first time slam finalist in straights.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:18 AM   #1078
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Am I the only one capable of posting links here to back up my conclusions?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evoluti...act_and_theory



Evolution is officially a theory.
Reading that whole article, the first thing that strikes me is the number of quotes from prominent scientists, stating that evolution is a fact. Yet you stated a few posts ago that ''no scientist will claim it's been proven beyond doubt.'' In fact, that link goes to great lengths to explain the difference between ''evolution'' and ''theory of evolution''.

When you say that evolution is officially a theory, you are ignoring what that article also states: Evolution is a fact and the theory of evolution attempts to explain the mechanisms of evolution.

Parallel to your argument is the statement "Gravity is officially a theory.'' But gravity is a fact and the Theory of Gravity attempts to explain the mechanisms of gravity.

I think your conclusion that evolution is officially a theory is wrong. The Theory of Evolution is officially a theory, not evolution itself.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:20 AM   #1079
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

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Barring all the polls being dead wrong Romney needs a borderline miracle to win the election. Obama doesn't even need Ohio if he wins Virginia. Everything has to break Romney's way for him to win.
Pretty much. The numbers just don't add up for Mitt at all. He has to steal several states from Obama that he doesn't look to be in position to do. But it's all about turnout.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:33 AM   #1080
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Default Re: US presidential election 2012

I can't see Obama losing this, I know they say its close close but only a miracle will help Romney.

May the beat for America wins (I have no idea who's the best for America)
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