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Old 10-27-2011, 12:18 PM   #61
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by Clydey View Post
Yes, but Nadal's stats are boosted because of his success on clay. Look at this stats again, except on hardcourts.

Nadal is not an exceptional returner. No real forward momentum. He often moves backwards to return, particularly on second serves.
The funny thing about tennis is that winning is more important than looking good. Compare Fabrice Santoro late in his career to say Frank Dancevic. One had an nice game compared to Fed but never figured out how to win and got to a career high of 65 I beleive, the other was beating players and in the top 30 til he was 35 with an ugly game.
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Old 10-27-2011, 12:20 PM   #62
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by HeretiC View Post
Return games won (career):

Nadal 33%
Murray 32%
Djokovic 31%

1st serve return won (career):

Murray 34%
Nadal 34%
Djokovic 33%

2nd serve return won (career):

Nadal 56%
Murray 55%
Djokovic 54%

Break points won (career)

Nadal 45%
Djokovic 44%
Murray 43%

Return games won (2011):

Djokovic 41%
Murray 37%
Nadal 35%

1st serve return won (2011):

Murray 37%
Djokovic 37%
Nadal 35%

2nd serve return won (2011):

Djokovic 58%
Nadal 57%
Murray 56%

Break points won (2011):

Djokovic 48%
Nadal 47%
Murray 47%

Stats says that out of this 3 best returner career wise is Nadal, then Murray, then Djokovic, in 2011 best returner is Djokovic.
Interesting. However these stats cannot be used as a metrix to measure who has the best return of serve, in my opinion. Nadal doesn't have the best return of serve, however is more than capable of getting balls back with huge topspin and ends up winning the point due to devastating groundstrokes. So while his ROS may be worse than a Murray or Djokovic, he might have gone on to win most of the points anyway, due to his baseline game.

The ROS should purely be based on how a person returns the first service point, i.e. how effective is it in getting a poor reply from his opponent for that particular return, and I would tip it in Murray's favor based on this.
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Old 10-27-2011, 12:26 PM   #63
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by Snowwy View Post
The funny thing about tennis is that winning is more important than looking good. Compare Fabrice Santoro late in his career to say Frank Dancevic. One had an nice game compared to Fed but never figured out how to win and got to a career high of 65 I beleive, the other was beating players and in the top 30 til he was 35 with an ugly game.
I'm not sure how that applies to this topic, but I completely agree that aesthetics mean little when we talk about results.
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Old 10-27-2011, 12:42 PM   #64
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

We can go into philosophical debates about aesteticaly pleasing return game or most return winners of 1st and 2nd serve, or return abilities on different surfaces, in the end it is all about the end result. Whoever has the best stats in winning return games/points is the best returner.
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Old 10-27-2011, 12:50 PM   #65
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by HeretiC View Post
We can go into philosophical debates about aesteticaly pleasing return game or most return winners of 1st and 2nd serve, or return abilities on different surfaces, in the end it is all about the end result. Whoever has the best stats in winning return games/points is the best returner.
There's a bit more to it than that. Like I said, clay courters get a boost because serves are much easier to return on clay. And on second serve returns, winning percentage is as much about rallying ability. Few would deny that Nalbandian is a superior second serve returner to Nadal, yet Nadal has a higher percentage of points won on second serve returns. This is obviously because of his ability to win rallies that start off as neutral. Nalbandian may win a lower percentage of points, but his actual return puts a lot more pressure on the server.
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Old 10-27-2011, 12:55 PM   #66
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by Snowwy View Post
The funny thing about tennis is that winning is more important than looking good. Compare Fabrice Santoro late in his career to say Frank Dancevic. One had an nice game compared to Fed but never figured out how to win and got to a career high of 65 I beleive, the other was beating players and in the top 30 til he was 35 with an ugly game.
You do realize this is a matter of taste. I preferred santoro's game.

Elephants are bigger than mice - true, its objective
cats are bigger than elephants - false, it's objective
Chocolate is better than vanilla - true/false does not apply, its simply a matter of taste (subjective)

This is grade 9 philosophy (not that philosophy is offered in high school - a travesty)
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Old 10-27-2011, 12:58 PM   #67
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by Clydey View Post
You actually have it the other way around. Murray has been the superior first serve returner this year, while Djokovic has been the superior second serve returner. But again, points won on 2nd serve return are mostly about rallying ability. The true test of a returner is how they return the first serve. Either way, Murray is superior to Djokovic all time in every return stat except BP conversion. Case closed, really.
This article refers to those with the best return games (and service games) not those with the best return of serve. Anyways Djokovic 2011 had the best return of serve game of the years listed. And he is clearly not the player he used to be.
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:04 PM   #68
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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This article refers to those with the best return games (and service games) not those with the best return of serve. Anyways Djokovic 2011 had the best return of serve game of the years listed. And he is clearly not the player he used to be.
Actually, on returning first serves he is just behind Murray. What improvements do you see in him as a returner? I see an improvement in his rallying, which is why he has such great stats on 2nd serves. In terms of effectively returning second serves, there are players who do it better than both Murray and Djokovic. regardless of the stats.

And in response to your first point, I'm aware of what the article is about. I posted it. The discussion has simply evolved.
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:17 PM   #69
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Actually, on returning first serves he is just behind Murray. What improvements do you see in him as a returner? I see an improvement in his rallying, which is why he has such great stats on 2nd serves. In terms of effectively returning second serves, there are players who do it better than both Murray and Djokovic. regardless of the stats.

And in response to your first point, I'm aware of what the article is about. I posted it. The discussion has simply evolved.
Fair enough just pointing out Djokovic has clearly become the best with respect to return of service games. The discussion did not evolve however it simply addressed a topic not referred to by the article from the very beginning of this thread. No big deal though.
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:21 PM   #70
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by Clydey View Post
There's a bit more to it than that. Like I said, clay courters get a boost because serves are much easier to return on clay. And on second serve returns, winning percentage is as much about rallying ability. Few would deny that Nalbandian is a superior second serve returner to Nadal, yet Nadal has a higher percentage of points won on second serve returns. This is obviously because of his ability to win rallies that start off as neutral. Nalbandian may win a lower percentage of points, but his actual return puts a lot more pressure on the server.
That 1st serve theory is very flawed: what if the server has around 30% of the 1 st serve in, in the particular match, how much of a factor would 1 serve return be if the 2nd serve return is bad?

We don't have valid data to measure the pressure that someone puts on a server as a returner (change in blood pressure, or growth of certain hormones or something else), without that it is subjective as it can be. I can speak for myself(depends on the surface): I would probably fear more that Nalbandian may rip me a return winner of second serve more than Nadal, but I would probably fear more that I will be broken by Nadal than Nalbandian if my 1st serve has higher percentage.
And Nalbandian isn't really a good example for comparing, cause his return stats are up there with the best, for example believe it or not on grass he has the best percentage of return games won out of active players.
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:27 PM   #71
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by Clydey View Post
Yes, but Nadal's stats are boosted because of his success on clay. Look at this stats again, except on hardcourts.

Nadal is not an exceptional returner. No real forward momentum. He often moves backwards to return, particularly on second serves.

The following are returning stats on hardcourts. I've excluded grass, since sample sizes are so small.

Return games won (career):

Murray - 33%
Djokovic - 30%
Nadal - 29%

First serve return points won (career):

Murray - 34%
Djokovic - 32%
Nadal - 32%

Second serve return points won (career)

Murray - 55%
Nadal - 54%
Djokovic - 54%

It's pointless using clay court stats, since they skew results in favour of clay courters. If we include clay, Volandri is statistically the 4th best returner of all time. The main stat I look at when assessing return ability is percentage of points won returning first serve. Every other stat is influenced to a great degree by the player's rallying ability.
dude shut up you are PATHETIC...............now you dont count Nadal's return games on clay????????Murray is a slamless mug and I told you that Djokovic is the best returner in 2011.....better player than Murray overall and you can go cry all you want it will never change .........
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:43 PM   #72
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Originally Posted by HeretiC View Post
That 1st serve theory is very flawed: what if the server has around 30% of the 1 st serve in, in the particular match, how much of a factor would 1 serve return be if the 2nd serve return is bad?
What does that have to do with anything when we're discussing the percentage of points won when returning the first serve?

Quote:
We don't have valid data to measure the pressure that someone puts on a server as a returner (change in blood pressure, or growth of certain hormones or something else), without that it is subjective as it can be. I can speak for myself(depends on the surface): I would probably fear more that Nalbandian may rip me a return winner of second serve more than Nadal, but I would probably fear more that I will be broken by Nadal than Nalbandian if my 1st serve has higher percentage.
There is more chance that Nadal will break you, but that isn't because of his return. It's because of his rallying ability. We're talking about two separate things here.

Quote:
And Nalbandian isn't really a good example for comparing, cause his return stats are up there with the best, for example believe it or not on grass he has the best percentage of return games won out of active players.
Nalbandian is an excellent example for the point I was making. He is, by all accounts, a superior returner to Nadal, yet has inferior numbers.
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:48 PM   #73
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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dude shut up you are PATHETIC...............now you dont count Nadal's return games on clay????????Murray is a slamless mug and I told you that Djokovic is the best returner in 2011.....better player than Murray overall and you can go cry all you want it will never change .........
Of course I don't count his return games on clay. It's a pointless statistic, since the speed of the court gives the returner a much greater chance of getting the serve back in play. As I already pointed out, if we include clay court statistics, Volandri is the 4th best returner of all time. If you wish to embrace that fact, by all means argue for the relevance of clay court return statistics.

And no one is denying that Djokovic is a better player than Murray. You can repeat that fact over and over if you wish. It simply isn't relevant to the discussion.
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Old 10-27-2011, 01:51 PM   #74
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Fair enough just pointing out Djokovic has clearly become the best with respect to return of service games. The discussion did not evolve however it simply addressed a topic not referred to by the article from the very beginning of this thread. No big deal though.
Djokovic is the best this year. That does not mean that he has 'become the best'. You cannot judge something like that based on a single exceptional year.
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Old 10-27-2011, 02:00 PM   #75
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Default Re: The Relative Importance of Hold and Return Games

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Of course I don't count his return games on clay. It's a pointless statistic, since the speed of the court gives the returner a much greater chance of getting the serve back in play. As I already pointed out, if we include clay court statistics, Volandri is the 4th best returner of all time. If you wish to embrace that fact, by all means argue for the relevance of clay court return statistics.

And no one is denying that Djokovic is a better player than Murray. You can repeat that fact over and over if you wish. It simply isn't relevant to the discussion.
you are right...clay doesnt count it's not a valid surface...let's only look at those in which Murray is the best and ignore every other stat
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