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Old 07-26-2011, 07:24 PM   #16
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Ajax - FC Twente
Pick: 5/10 Ajax -0.5 @ 1.96 (IBC)

http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/net...twente-798993/
The match isn't officially classiefied as a home match for Ajax, but they are expected to have more crowd support and the game is played in Amsterdam. At the moment of writing Twente are playing Vaslui in the Champions League qualification. Their play is far from impressive, but most of all they are being plagued by injuries. Today key winger Ruiz, new midfielder Willem Janssen (the replacement of Theo Janssen who went to Ajax) and regular winger Chadli are out and things aren't looking good for the weekend. Regular rightback Rosales is also on vacation after the Copa America. This Supercup match comes in a poor time for Twente, exactly between two huge matches against Vaslui and in practice the focus will be on this. Ajax was in the exact same situation last season and lost in an uninspiring performance and the same from Twente this year wouldn't surprise me now that the situation has turned around. Ajax have made some good signings so far with striker Sigthorsson, creative winger Serero and playmakerTheo Janssen as the main signings and so far nobody has left, even though I expect goalkeeper Stekelenburg's transfer to Roma to come through within a couple of days, so he might be out. Important defender Vertonghen and new winger Boerrigter have been the only injured players lately and Vertonghen is fit in time for this game. I expect the mindset of Ajax to be a lot better and more focused for this game and this will be key. In terms of quality I also rate the Amsterdam side stronger at this point in time, certainly with all these personnel problems and uncertainties for Twente. Bet can be taken up to 2.00 in Europe as well for low limits.
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Old 07-27-2011, 12:47 AM   #17
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

I like your play, but the injuries of both Ruiz, Chadli and Janssen are minor (Adriaanse stated after the match). Fact is that even with the 2-0 win over Vaslui, being ready for the match in Romania next week will be the most important thing for Twente.

Ajax has gotten stronger, comparing to last year. Even with Stekelenburg leaving, they'll have a good goalkeeper to back him up. Ajax have looked impressive in the last two pre-season matches against Brondby (0-3 win) and Independiente (5-1). The latter team played with a B-squad though, but still the link up play looked good. They should be lifted by the 'home crowd' and I see them holding the cup after 90 minutes.
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Old 07-27-2011, 03:01 AM   #18
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Well Janssen is quite sick and Ruiz has barely trained or played in the last weeks (started group training on Sunday, but still is in pain), so their state is really poor, whether they will be in the squad or not, but good to hear you agree on the rest mate
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Old 07-27-2011, 03:18 PM   #19
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

FC Groningen - FC Volendam
Pick: 5/10 FC Groningen -0.75 @ 1.84 (IBC)


http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/wor...-848797/#1X2;2
Groningen have just 2 preseason friendlies left. Today they play first division side FC Volendam and 4 days later they play Real Mallorca. So far they played a big total of 8 matches already, having some dissapointing results, drawing against Helmond Sport and Ankaragucu and losing heavily to HSV this weekend. There were also some positives to denote with wins over PAOK and Veendam. The stage of experimenting is over for the Eredivisie-side here and after the heavy loss to HSV this match has become quite important to them. The "new" defence after key defender Granqvist and regular leftback Stenman were transferred has been a bit dissapointing and it will be important to show that they can keep things tight at the back today. I expect their best 11 to start and in terms of injuries only young defender Van Dijk and S/R forward Pedersen are out. In the match against HSV this was their line-up: Luciano; Kappelhof (66’ Hiariej), Ivens (66’ Ajilore), Kwakman, Burnet; Holla (70’ Kieftenbeld), Sparv; Bacuna, Pedersen (70’ Jones), Tadic; Matavz (76’ Suk).

The line-up mentioned above is pretty much the strongest possible and I expect big new signing Jones to take over the spot of Pedersen here, which isn't a downgrade if he lives up to the talent he possesses. Volendam will try to reach the play-offs again in the upcoming season, but suffered a big loss in terms of personnel when their key striker and topscorer Platje was transferred to NEC. They had a pre-season with quite a lot of friendlies, but played mostly against amateur sides and on the few occasions against better opposition they failed miserably, losing 3-0 to Aachen and drawing against the Ajax reserves. So far they have showed a real impotence up front against the stronger opponents and I doubt if they will be able to take advantage of Groningen's potential weakness at the back. Even in the last 2 matches they experimented a lot with players and their squad is still far from ready for the new season, making this -0.75 a really good bet. A -1 with odds around 1.9 max would suit this game better. The match is played at an amateur club, just 15km outside of Groningen, so this is an unofficial home game for them.
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Old 07-27-2011, 09:31 PM   #20
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Groningen won 3-0, bet won
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Old 07-28-2011, 04:23 PM   #21
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Omonia Nicosia - ADO Den Haag
Pick: 5/10 Omonia Nicosia DNB @ 1.88 (IBC)

I just can't agree with these odds on ADO at all. The team is extremely inexperienced with many young kids and played their first European games in the previous round. With Tauras they faced terrible opposition, but still managed to get into trouble in the away match, eventually winning in injury-time with a lot of luck. I rate Omonia a lot higher and the circumstances will be quite tough as well. The Cypriot fans are known for their good support and it's really hot on the island right now. Last season they were quite impressive defensively, conceding just 16 goals in the league (and scoring 38, finishing 2nd). ADO have lost succescoach Van den Brom, topscorer Bulykin and really don't look as strong at this point. Of course I don't know Omonia that well, but I think the number 2 of Cyprus should really be able to challenge a Dutch side that is used to fighting against relegation more than they are used to challenging for Europe. A DNB line just seems silly to me here under these circumstances and I think ADO will be very happy to take a draw home from this fixture already.
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Old 07-28-2011, 05:22 PM   #22
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

AZ Alkmaar - Baumit Jablonec
Pick: 5/10 AZ -1 @ 1.9 (SBO)


An incredible drift here for me. AZ have had a very good preseason despite losing a couple of players and have looked very fresh lately. The Czech number 3 has been scouting AZ lately and were quite surprised with their high level of play. Key in this has been the play of Martens, who has been moved from the wing to the number 10 spot and this works incredibly well. A -1.25 line with odds around 1.85 seems fair here.
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Old 07-28-2011, 07:23 PM   #23
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Omonia won 3-0, bet won.
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Old 07-28-2011, 07:50 PM   #24
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

AZ won 2-0, bet won
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Old 07-29-2011, 01:43 PM   #25
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

You're on a roll off late, Timo!

I have to admit that I normally stay away from betting friendlies, but you've proven to be very succesful with them.

Keep it up!
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Old 07-29-2011, 05:15 PM   #26
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Roda JC - Malaga
Pick: Malaga -0.5 @ 1.90 (small stakes)


Like I said, normally I tend not to bet friendly games, but this one got me tempted. I saw Malaga playing this Wednesday against FC Utrecht and they won very comfortably by 0-3. The team Malaga will field for this match is almost entirely different than the one against FC Utrecht. Van Nistelrooij, Gamez, Demichelis, Toulalan and Duda won't start, but on the contrary they'll play with Joaquin, Cazorla, Mathijsen and Baptista.

Roda JC is on about the same level as FC Utrecht in terms of level of play. They added Ramzi and Monteyne to their team, but lost key players De Fauw, Skoubo, Janssen and Hadouir. Especially the last three are major blows for the offensive link-up play. They'll have to rebuild their team. They got a bit of a lucky draw against Brugge (2-2), but apart from that they haven't been really tested. Roda is in a similar spot to FC Utrecht (having just lost their best players) and I think Malaga is in a different league than Roda at the moment. They've invested a lot of money and the new siginings will be keen to show just how good they are.

Game to start in 15 minutes..
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Old 07-29-2011, 05:33 PM   #27
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheva View Post
You're on a roll off late, Timo!

I have to admit that I normally stay away from betting friendlies, but you've proven to be very succesful with them.

Keep it up!
Cheers mate

I agree on Malaga as well, but I'm looking at it in play to see how things work out a bit more. GL
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Old 07-29-2011, 06:35 PM   #28
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Just when I got close to backing Malaga they scored 0-1 from a penalty. They started poorly, but grew in the match and were better in the first half. The lead is deserved, but they were very lucky that the linesman missed a valid Roda-goal..the ball went over the goal-line, but he misjudged it and said the GK saved it in time..

If Malaga up the pace a bit they should win easily I think..
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Old 07-29-2011, 07:21 PM   #29
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

Malaga wins 2-1, despite an early second half red card. Could have gone both ways, but a brilliant last minute goal saved the day

Congrats
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Old 07-29-2011, 07:45 PM   #30
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2011/2012

That was too close for comfort!

Maybe a draw would have been more deserved, yeah. Roda didn't create a lot apart from that goal that was cancelled (undeservedly). Malaga didn't seem fully motivated as well. Glad they still got the win.

And thanks Timo!
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