[Timotheus]

Last season: http://www.menstennisforums.com/showthread.php?t=166351

My record, updated 19-09-2011
Statistics current season (starting 01-07-2011. W-L-V | profit | ROI):
Football: 14-7-1 | +26.17 | +124.9%
In-play Football: 12-4-1 | +45.4 | +151.9%

[Timotheus]

5/10 PSV -0.75 v FC Eindhoven (1-0 Eindhoven) @ 1.87

About 30 minutes left. PSV have been a lot better and have brought on some good subs with new signings Mertens and Wijnaldum. Really pushing at this point and quality difference between then and first division FC Eindhoven is huge.

[Timotheus]

PSV won 2-1, bet won +4.35u

[Timotheus]

livebet

5/10 Ajax -1.5 v Emmen @ 1.86 (0-0)
Ajax are all over Emmen so far. Besides the obvious big gap in quality, Emmen are looking very insecure at the back. Ajax are in complete control and it's just a matter of time before they score. They just hit the post as well.

[tt boy]

would you still play ajax -1.5 at halftime???

[tt boy]

ajax scores on 60'..0-1..still 30 to get 1 more

[Timotheus]

Ajax won 1-0, bet lost -5.

Ajax started well, but all in all this was a deserved losing bet. Their level of play dropped a lot and it was a lazy performance.

Sorry for not replying mate, I didn't refresh the thread.

[Timotheus]

Standard Liège - FC Twente
PIck: 2.5/10 Standard to win @ 2.4 (Unibet/Gamebookers, also 2.4 at really low limit spots like Betsson, 888, Interwetten, Centrebet)
Small stakes because I don't know the team Standard will play with (they also play Fenerbahce tomorrow), but Twente plays with the reserves after beating Fener 4-3 yesterday:
Expected 11: Boschker, Bouma, Bengtsson , Thesker, Buysse; roséler, vujicevic, rendla, vogelsang, gouriye, John

These are mostly kids, not even proper reserves. Boschker, Bengtsson, Buyse and John were the only guys who really made minutes last season, so a really poor line-up. Most bookies have dropped, but 2.4 is still great value imo. Another reason for the smaller stakes are the limits ofcourse.

[Timotheus]

Originally Posted by Timotheus

Standard Liège - FC Twente
PIck: 2.5/10 Standard to win @ 2.4 (Unibet/Gamebookers, also 2.4 at really low limit spots like Betsson, 888, Interwetten, Centrebet)
Small stakes because I don't know the team Standard will play with (they also play Fenerbahce tomorrow), but Twente plays with the reserves after beating Fener 4-3 yesterday:
Expected 11: Boschker, Bouma, Bengtsson , Thesker, Buysse; roséler, vujicevic, rendla, vogelsang, gouriye, John

These are mostly kids, not even proper reserves. Boschker, Bengtsson, Buyse and John were the only guys who really made minutes last season, so a really poor line-up. Most bookies have dropped, but 2.4 is still great value imo. Another reason for the smaller stakes are the limits ofcourse.

Standard won 3-0, bet won +3.5u

[Timotheus]

Sparta Rotterdam - SC Heerenveen
Pick: 5/10 Heerenveen -0.75 @ 1.87 (IBC)
Heerenveen lost badly to AA Gent in their previous friendly, which was a big turn-around in their preseason, that was looking quite good up to that point. They had a bit of a punishment training after this and really seem back on track now. In terms of quality I really like their squad. So far regular LB Jong-A-Pin and CM Grindheim have left, but with El Akchaoui and home grown Roorda they have an equal and better replacement. Their attack is really good and they should really be able to challenge for Europe after a year with many ups and downs. Sparta are a first division side who just lost their key striker Voskamp and important winger Duarte and are yet finding their team and starting line-up. Heerenveen have progressed further and have a huge edge in quality here and a -1 line around 1.9 would be best suited here.

[Timotheus]

Originally Posted by Timotheus

Sparta Rotterdam - SC Heerenveen
Pick: 5/10 Heerenveen -0.75 @ 1.87 (IBC)
Heerenveen lost badly to AA Gent in their previous friendly, which was a big turn-around in their preseason, that was looking quite good up to that point. They had a bit of a punishment training after this and really seem back on track now. In terms of quality I really like their squad. So far regular LB Jong-A-Pin and CM Grindheim have left, but with El Akchaoui and home grown Roorda they have an equal and better replacement. Their attack is really good and they should really be able to challenge for Europe after a year with many ups and downs. Sparta are a first division side who just lost their key striker Voskamp and important winger Duarte and are yet finding their team and starting line-up. Heerenveen have progressed further and have a huge edge in quality here and a -1 line around 1.9 would be best suited here.

Heerenveen won 2-1, bet half won +2.18u.
Sparta scored their goal in the final minute of the game from a deflected free-kick.

[Timotheus]

PSV - Valencia (played in Wolfsberg, neutral venue)
Pick: 5/10 PSV +0.25 @ 2.07 (SBO)

Valencia started their pre-season this week. They have qualified for the Champions League directly and therefore start the season as late as the 21st of August. In comparison PSV start the Dutch league on the 7th, exactly 2 weeks before Valencia. The difference in preparation is even a bit bigger, with PSV training for quite a while now. PSV have progressed a lot in their pre-season already, having played 4 matches, beating 2 amateur sides easily, but failing to convince against FC Eindhoven (1-2 win) and Bursaspor (1-1). After Valencia they have just 3 friendlies left. With Dzsudzsak the Eindhoven-side lost their best player, but with the transfer funds they were able to strengthen their squad on 3 positions, with winger Mertens and midfielders Wijnaldum and Strootman who should all become regulars. All in all this makes their team a lot stronger overall. Based on their final training session PSV will start with a team close to their best 11. Regular goalkeeper Isaksson and leftback Pieters have just returned in the squad after injuries, so it’s not sure if they will start. My guess for the starting 11 would be: Cassio Ramos; Manolev, Bouma, Marcelo, Tamata; Strootman, Toivonen, Wijnaldum; Mertens, Lens, Labyad.

Of course I don’t know Valencia’s squad as well, but like I said already: this is their first friendly so we are likely to see a lot of substitutions and they are in a completely different stage of their pre-season. Tino Costa is out and David Navarro and Joaquin have been transferred, just like goalkeeper César. New signings include Piatti, Rami, goalkeeper Diego Alves and Dani Parejo. All in all I expect Valencia to experiment a lot more, while PSV will really be building towards the team that is supposed to start in the first league match. In their previous game most of their subs came on as late as the 75th minute and under these circumstances I expect PSV’s fitness levels to be a lot better as well. In terms of quality Valencia’s first team would of course be a lot stronger, but all things given an equal DNB line feels much more appropriate here.

[Timotheus]

PSV lost 0-2, bet lost -5u.
Haven't been able to watch the game so I can't say too much, but in terms of line-ups it was exactly what I predicted with PSV only substituting late and Valencia with 2 completely different line-ups..all in all a poor loss from PSV in this situation.

[Timotheus]

FC Oss - Vitesse
Pick: 5/10 Vitesse -1.5 @ 1.85 (SBO)
This match is played on a neutral venue and starts in little over an hour. Vitesse have had a good preseason so far. They are still building on their squad, but did a good job beating Augsburg and Jahn Regensburg (0-1 and 0-4). Oss are still building on their squad. I know them very well as they are the team from my home town and they just promoted from the amateur league (Topklasse). They have a lot of test-players at this point and are still working on a best 11 with a lot of players not knowing what their future looks like. I expect Vitesse's best 11 to start here and most of their subs as late as the final 15 minutes, while Oss will make more rotations to their already poor squad in comparison.

[Timotheus]

Vitesse won 5-1, bet won