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Old 09-04-2013, 10:42 PM   #781
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Milos can win one match and Vasek/Daniela can certainly win the doubles. They "just" have to win one more match, it isn't impossible.

Very poor planning on Djokovic's part although all the money raised goes to Serbia anyways. He should've played the MSG exhibition and have a gala night around that time.
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Old 09-05-2013, 02:51 AM   #782
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Quote:
Originally Posted by 156mphserve View Post
we can't do that though. You nominate your 2 singles players and the higher ranked on plays the lower ranked opponent on Friday, and plays first Sunday. The only way around this is if your player is legimately hurt and he cannot play the remainder of the tie someone can sub in for the Friday.
Ah thanks .. just checked Davis Cup rules .. you are right, a team can't do this. Ah well, it was a fun scenario to consider :-)

re: comments above that "we aren't going to win", sure it is unlikely, but certainly not impossible. Hey, Edmondson won '76 AO ranked over 200, Nadal loses to Rosol & Darcis in back-to-back wimby's ... strange things happen sometimes. I prefer to have low expectations (I'd say our chances are negligible-to-unlikely) and won't be hugely disappointed if we lose ... but, I'm watching & hoping for a win.
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Old 09-05-2013, 12:21 PM   #783
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Default Re: Davis Cup

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Originally Posted by sdmartin View Post
Ah thanks .. just checked Davis Cup rules .. you are right, a team can't do this. Ah well, it was a fun scenario to consider :-)

re: comments above that "we aren't going to win", sure it is unlikely, but certainly not impossible. Hey, Edmondson won '76 AO ranked over 200, Nadal loses to Rosol & Darcis in back-to-back wimby's ... strange things happen sometimes. I prefer to have low expectations (I'd say our chances are negligible-to-unlikely) and won't be hugely disappointed if we lose ... but, I'm watching & hoping for a win.
I agree. We do have a 1 or 2 % chance. I will certainly be watching.
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Old 09-05-2013, 03:22 PM   #784
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowwy View Post
I agree. We do have a 1 or 2 % chance. I will certainly be watching.
Pegging the odds of Canada going to the finals at between 50 to 100 : 1 against? I'll take that bet.

I'd say our chances are 5-15% for this tie.
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Old 09-06-2013, 12:21 AM   #785
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Dancevic (or Pospisil) will beat Joker in R1/R2 - 2% (incl. chance of an injury)
Raonic will beat Tipsy in R2/R1 - 57.5%
Nestor and Pospisil to win doubles - 52.5%
Raonic will beat Joker - 3% (incl. chance of injury)
Pospisil will beat Tipsy - 47.5%
Overall chance Canada will win tie = .575X.525X.475X100%=14%
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Old 09-06-2013, 07:07 PM   #786
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowwy View Post
I agree. We do have a 1 or 2 % chance. I will certainly be watching.
Oddsmakers are giving them a much better chance like that. About 20-30% at the moment. I think that's a bit too high myself, but really, all they have to do is beat Tipsarevic twice (which Raonic/Pospisil are fully capable of doing) and win a doubles match (generally a 50/50 proposition). It isn't that impossible.

Last edited by MaratandMilos : 09-06-2013 at 07:11 PM.
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Old 09-06-2013, 11:44 PM   #787
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Default Re: Davis Cup

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Originally Posted by MaratandMilos View Post
Oddsmakers are giving them a much better chance like that. About 20-30% at the moment. I think that's a bit too high myself, but really, all they have to do is beat Tipsarevic twice (which Raonic/Pospisil are fully capable of doing) and win a doubles match (generally a 50/50 proposition). It isn't that impossible.
Check Pospisil's record on clay
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Old 09-07-2013, 12:15 AM   #788
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Default Re: Davis Cup

doesn't matter to me what oddsmakers or anybody says, I'm not throwing the towel in until they win 3 matches

Go Team Canada!
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Old 09-08-2013, 01:47 PM   #789
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Default Re: Davis Cup

One grueling 5 setter for Novak down, one more to go (hopefully) ... something like 4 TB's with an average match rally length of 25 shots ... and it would be even better if Novak wins so he's just a little more distracted for a day or two.
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Old 09-09-2013, 06:20 AM   #790
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowwy View Post
Check Pospisil's record on clay
Sure, he probably won't win, but that isn't exactly the largest of career sample sizes there. No better time than now to get better.
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Old 09-09-2013, 01:38 PM   #791
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Quote:
Originally Posted by sdmartin View Post
One grueling 5 setter for Novak down, one more to go (hopefully) ... something like 4 TB's with an average match rally length of 25 shots ... and it would be even better if Novak wins so he's just a little more distracted for a day or two.
Dang it sunny in NYC... my rain dance to get 48 hours of non-stop rain didn't work.
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Old 09-09-2013, 11:09 PM   #792
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Levine is out
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Old 09-10-2013, 09:20 AM   #793
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Default Re: Davis Cup

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Levine is out
Oh well, he would be a non factor in Davis Cup anyways.
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Old 09-10-2013, 12:39 PM   #794
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Canadian players are saying the courts are playing quite fast
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Old 09-10-2013, 01:12 PM   #795
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Default Re: Davis Cup

Also Arash Madani is reporting that "Frank Dancevic is dealing with a minor, right wrist issue. Doesn't feel it will be a bother, but it is taped up in his practice sessions" ... this is actually worrying ... (of course if wrist is really a bother, no way Frank is going to tell even home reporters). If Frank can't go, we are left we Pops lined up for 3 matches (huge risk IMO since rubber #5, no matter if odds are against us, is still key) or Peliwo. Yikes. Nothing against Filip, but think Serbia would have the luxery of playing either 1. Djoker for a light 60-80 min "practice session" or 2. playing Lajovic with a pretty sure win as well.

Of course if we knew 100% certain that Djoker wasn't going to play Friday, and Frank was hurt, I say go all-in & try to win the first 3 rubbers with Pops against Lajovic on Friday .. if it doesn't work out, oh well. Unfortunately don't think Serbia is going to tip their hand on Djoker's intention :-).
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