Thread to discuss the upcoming elections. Few books starting to have markets up on each seat

[Bolar Bolabi]

I was looking at Christopher Pyne for the seat of Sturt in South Australia.

This has been a notorious liberal safe seat. He's been in power in that electorate since 1993. A long time. Labour did get back on him last election, but nowhere near enough to budge him.

I'm looking into it but I'm leaning Pyne to retain the seat @ $1.70. He was $1.40 last election and it was an absolute gift.

I guess it depends what he has done on the National scale with Education, Apprenticeships and Training as well as in South Australia.

Interesting the market movements in the betting for this election. Coalition were something like 4.50 at the start of the campaign are now into around 3.00.

Line betting in terms of seats won started off with Labor at -12.5 and as of tonight down to -5.5

Looks like Labor's daily gaffes in campaigning has moved market sentiment dramatically

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

I was looking at Christopher Pyne for the seat of Sturt in South Australia.

This has been a notorious liberal safe seat. He's been in power in that electorate since 1993. A long time. Labour did get back on him last election, but nowhere near enough to budge him.

I'm looking into it but I'm leaning Pyne to retain the seat @ $1.70. He was $1.40 last election and it was an absolute gift.

I guess it depends what he has done on the National scale with Education, Apprenticeships and Training as well as in South Australia.

Sturt is an interesting seat in this election. Pyne currently holds it a slim 0.9% and he is up against a pretty respectable and highly credentialed candidate. I read an article in the Adelaide Advertiser today where they had conducted internal polling in the seat of Kingston this week. Sample of 1500 people and the result was a 12% swing for the sitting member. Ok so the sample is small but if that sentiment is reflected in the neighbouring seats then Libs might be in trouble in SA

Labor has drifted enough to take them now

Labor to win - $1.60

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by bad gambler

Sturt is an interesting seat in this election. Pyne currently holds it a slim 0.9% and he is up against a pretty respectable and highly credentialed candidate. I read an article in the Adelaide Advertiser today where they had conducted internal polling in the seat of Kingston this week. Sample of 1500 people and the result was a 12% swing for the sitting member. Ok so the sample is small but if that sentiment is reflected in the neighbouring seats then Libs might be in trouble in SA

Interesting.

At the moment Pyne's odds have gone into $1.38 and Sarre out to $2.80. When I was in Adelaide, Sturt was the seat I had to vote for but not being over there anymore, I don't know what is going on. Your info is interesting.

I mean, obviously Pyne's has gone in because of the polls favouring Liberal.

Kingston:

ALP - Amanda Rishworth 1.16
LIB - Chris Zanker 4.65

[Bolar Bolabi]

I do agree that Labour will win this election. I'm just waiting for it to go out a bit more.

[Alistair]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

I do agree that Labour will win this election. I'm just waiting for it to go out a bit more.

Can't see the ALP drifting much more than they have. After a disasterous fortnight, they're back on track.

1.60 is the best you were going to get, glad I took them when I did

[good_gambler]

Shouldn't have followed you BG.
Was a good bet. Into $1.38 now.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Pyne is into $1.20 now.

For a guy that is neck and neck in his seat I'm questioning the odds.

They must think that a lot of votes in his seat will go to Liberal and not Labour. If a lot of people in that electorate decide they want Gillard as PM, Sarre is going to get a shitload of votes.

[xcrap]

Originally Posted by good_gambler

Shouldn't have followed you BG.
Was a good bet. Into $1.38 now.

Labor back out to $1.53 at Centrebet atm

Rudd 51% or more 1st preferences - $1.75

gl

[Bolar Bolabi]

Labour @ $1.45

[Bolar Bolabi]

Here's hoping the Green and Independants side with Labour.