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Old 05-06-2010, 01:07 PM   #91
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

i did see that. but i thought you didn't get my intentions (because you're not really into economics, see cds for example), no offense. i was thinking you just like the funny nation game.
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Old 05-06-2010, 01:13 PM   #92
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
i did see that. but i thought you didn't get my intentions (because you're not really into economics, see cds for example), no offense. i was thinking you just like the funny nation game.
Yes I do like the funny nation game, and no economy is not my forte (only subject I failed at my "Abitur" ) but even I know it's the PIIGS that are having more debt problems.
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Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 05-06-2010, 05:35 PM   #93
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
...which doesn't make sense though in this context: it's about countries whose debt has been spiraling out of control, which is why markets have attacked them in the last couple of months.

BASTARD and STUPID does make sense though.



i doubt it. obviously banks are benefactors, i give you that. it's not as big a deal monetarily as you'd think though. german banks would need to write off about 40 billion euros if all of their money would vanish. that's the worst-case scenario though. between black (giving greece aid) and white (letting them die alone) there are tons of shades. germany/france/brussels could make them have a "haircut", which means athens would sort of partly default - foreign institutional creditors usually still get served, first and foremost, as we've seen in argentina. that way germany would a) save tons of taxpayers' money and b) its banks would still keep their cash.

another thing many seem to forget is that russia or china would probably swoop in if europe decided to let greece slip. sure, it'd mean quite a blow for euuopean geopolitics to have another "entity" among its nations, another major player to cope with right on the doorstep - but money-wise, like i said, taxpayers in germany and france would be better off.

if germany acted in "self-interest", as you point out, they'd demand much more collateral: we give you cash and you blow it - we take over your companies, your shipping lines, your infrastructure, your country, everything. that's what happens on the market. if we'd actually have one.
when I say self-interest I don't mean in the interest of German citizens. Your 2nd point merely backs up mine. We had a similar discussion about the Eurozone payments before. Governments care more about big business than tax payers.

Tax payers are bailing out the banks all over the world. You even have the situation where a fucked up country like Ireland, where citizens are already condemned to a life-time of higher taxes to prop up our own corrupt institutions, sending €1.3bn to bail out the Greeks, or like I said German and French banks mostly (I didn't get chance to look at your youtube video but it's been revealed today that BNP Paribas has pretty big exposure).

As for your last point. Well how would that work in practice? Of course there isn't a completely free international market. There are international laws protecting the sovereignty of nation states. Short or invading a country (didn't work out too well last time) how on earth could Germany take control of anything if a foreign government objected?

Part of me would love to see some of your efficient Germanic asses over here to run things like transport infrstucture for a while....
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Old 05-06-2010, 10:36 PM   #94
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

regarding the "taking control" thing: i was basically thinking of (partly state-controlled) german companies taking over greek companies. it's not like stuff like that doesn't happen, they just don't call it that way. when sarkozy travels to africa to "abate debts", 6 months later french conglomerates run the country. when merkel or steinmeier travel to brazil "for friendly talks", 6 months later it's revealed that brazil wants german nuclear submarines - and only gets them if siemens, hochtief and deutsche bank can develop the brazilian infrastructure running up to the olympics and the world cup. and when bush or obama travel to latin america...don't get me started. in the end, the rules the imf usually implements lead to a sell-off of the receiving countries' wealth anyways, so all they do is cover it up properly and hide behind economic theories.

obviously the whole thing would need to be branded in a positive way. but the basics are: if you're a bone fide creditor, show me the goods. i'm not in favor of it though, don't get me wrong. but i'm fairly sure this would be the most efficient way for germany dealing with greece, state and companies alike, as this was the topic i picked up from your statement. and i'm fairly sure we'll see these kind of business deals in our lifetimes.
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Old 05-07-2010, 08:11 PM   #95
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Chinaski View Post
Also, it's rarely mentioned in this context (same with 3rd world debt) that dumb borrowing can only result from dumb lending.

The banks who authorise stupid loans are just as culpable as those who end up defaulting on them
Exactly. All this so-called no risk 100% safe AAA+++ rated debt shit. When you lend money there is always risk of default. People don't seem to grasp that.

If banks (doesn't matter if they're Greek, German or American) make poor lending decisions, let them go bust. Under. Kaputt. Fuck em.
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Old 05-07-2010, 10:16 PM   #96
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by JolánGagó View Post
Who cares? let Germany pay, you've gained the most from that shit euro no one else needs, and you've bought most of the cheap summer houses too, after nearly obliterating Greece during 2WW.

So now shut up and pay out
.
Yes. It is essential that funding is provided to Greece, but do you not also feel that just spending money is pointless unless major structural changes are made to the economic management of Greece. Otherwise it will recur after all the lent money is spent.

I agree with the pay out, but the Germans also need to tell the Greeks how to run their economics affairs as they seem incapable of running their own with the Greek economy almost going bankrupt.
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Old 05-07-2010, 11:11 PM   #97
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Greek-style anti-austerity riots: coming soon to a city near you...











Never trust a Greek bearing gifts debt. Seriously, though, this is scary shit. This has the potential to blow up the European economy, which of course will have negative consequences globally. I can't imagine the UK and the US will be too far behind should the Euro go under. It's not like we've been a thrifty bunch either, and the economic damage from a European collapse will reduce tax revenues, forcing us to borrow even more. The long-term situation isn't particularly welcoming, either:

Quote:
The Canary in Europe’s Coal Mine

By James C. Capretta

In the very short term, Europe may be able to weather the Greek debt crisis and cobble together a program that buys time, stems contagion, and avoids a precipitous downward spiral. That is not at all assured, of course. Indeed, it may in fact be unlikely, given the size of the hole that Greece now needs to fill under the IMF-EU bailout package and the nervousness of lenders and investors. The “austerity” program calls for fiscal consolidation (or deficit reduction) by the Greek government equal to 11 percent of GDP in 2010, 4.3 percent in 2011, and 2 percent in 2012 and 2013. Economists expect these cuts will push the country into recession, which will almost certainly exacerbate the social unrest on display in recent days. And even if Greece complies, debt would still hit nearly 150 percent of GDP in about three years before stabilizing thereafter. It’s hard to see this all playing out smoothly.

But even if matters do work out well over the coming weeks and months, what’s happening in Greece is almost certainly an early sign that Europe’s long-in-coming day of reckoning is now at hand.

Yes, Greece is an outlier. Its debt is higher than elsewhere in the eurozone. More taxes seem to go uncollected there than just about anyplace else. And the state apparatus looks to be almost beyond belief in terms of its size and drag on the economy.

But the most debilitating disease afflicting Greece is also present in every other western European country. They all have more and more people living off of an expansive social welfare structure, even as their workforce is aging, shrinking, and losing ground to global competitors.

A couple of years ago, the European Commission (EC) looked at the implications of population aging on public expenditures and economic growth in the EU member states. That study found that the working-age population in the EU countries will peak in 2011, and contract rather substantially thereafter.

GDP growth is a function of the changing size of a nation’s workforce, and its productive capacity. According to the EC’s projections, the EU’s working-age population grew at an average rate of 0.9 percent per year from 2004 to 2010, thus boosting overall GDP growth. But beginning in this decade, the workforce is going to contract, slowing GDP growth by an average of 0.1 percent every year through 2030. In other words, the shift from an expanding to a contracting workforce is worth about a 1.0 percentage point drop in GDP every year.

Meanwhile, the cost of the European welfare state is set to rise dramatically with population aging. The EC projected that pension and health costs will rise about 2.4 percent of EU-wide GDP from 2004 to 2030.

To survive the demographic tidal wave coming their way, European governments should have been running large primary budget surpluses in the years when their workforces were still growing and paying taxes. But most did not. Now, their choices are far less attractive. If lenders won’t finance their welfare states at preferential rates, European governments will have no choice but to impose even higher taxes on the shrinking number of workers who continue to produce goods and services, or ask those no longer working to cut their consumption dramatically. Either way, it’s a politician’s nightmare.

Which is why it’s hard to blame existing lenders to Europe’s most leveraged countries for becoming increasingly nervous that they could be the ones left holding the bag.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/pos...VlZGJlYzQxNzU=

I still don't see how making cuts that ultimately force people to produce something of economic value rather than living off of the government's dime (taxpayers in actuality...people who actually produce) will cause some terrible recession, but I'm not an expert. Nevertheless, this is ominous.
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Old 05-09-2010, 02:00 AM   #98
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Bank of International Settlements showing all the gigantic debt dependencies across Europe:



LOOK AT WHAT THOSE BRAINLESS FRENCH have been doing.
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Old 05-09-2010, 08:45 AM   #99
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Bank of International Settlements showing all the gigantic debt dependencies across Europe:



LOOK AT WHAT THOSE BRAINLESS FRENCH have been doing.
Can't see that.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 05-09-2010, 10:14 AM   #100
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
Can't see that.
You need to be logged in AOL Mail.

Greece is toast and Spain, Portugal and Italy are on the way. I'd say kick them out before you(France and Germany) sink whilst trying to clean their mess.
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Old 05-09-2010, 09:35 PM   #101
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Great. Might as well delete that post. I don't know how to upload it.

It was a really good chart too.
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Old 05-09-2010, 10:09 PM   #102
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Bank of International Settlements showing all the gigantic debt dependencies across Europe:



LOOK AT WHAT THOSE BRAINLESS FRENCH have been doing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
Can't see that.
Jose do you have a detector that is triggered when ever the French are criticised.
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Old 05-09-2010, 10:25 PM   #103
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Still trying to upload it.
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Old 05-09-2010, 10:28 PM   #104
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

EU = wasted condom.
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Old 05-10-2010, 08:30 AM   #105
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Great. Might as well delete that post. I don't know how to upload it.

It was a really good chart too.
Can't you screen cap it and upload it to tinypic or something?

I'm interested.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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