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Old 03-25-2012, 11:44 AM   #766
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

i think we've seen nothing yet. quantitative easing will come back in full effect, in all kinds of ways, in all kinds of forms, for all kinds of people. pretty much every single industry is gonna demand a bailout, next up: autos. smaller, less successful companies like (you guessed it) the french have been trying to force a "european solution" for their shrinking competitiveness for about 4 years now. fiat is jumping on the bandwagon, with marchionne calling up brussels. for now, most german companies stand idly by but give it 6 months time and they come crawling back to merkel.

opel might be the first one to actually receive a bailout, probably a national thing though. opel sucks big time, mostly due to restrictions by general motors, as opel may not sell cars anywhere ex europe.

taxpayer money is gonna vanish across the western hemisphere. you got no auto industry in your country? no problem, other "too big to fail" industries will fill the gap.
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Old 03-26-2012, 10:36 AM   #767
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

seems like europe is gonna dump the whole mess into berlin's lap - as predicted. even the dutch are about the leave triple-a-territory mid-term. citi has released a paper called "netherlands - no longer core":

Quote:
The Netherlands has left the Core of the euro area in our view. We characterize core countries as those with i) a relatively strong fiscal position in both the public and private sector, ii) advocating strict fiscal and structural reform conditionality in return for support measures for weaker EA sovereigns and iii) relatively little reliance of the domestic banking system on Eurosystem liquidity. Consequently core countries get a relatively benign treatment by financial markets even during times of turmoil, and have recently shown above euro area average growth. Furthermore, core countries have in common the skepticism towards extraordinary ECB support for troubled euro area sovereigns and banks. While Dutch general government debt remains much below the euro area average (66% of GDP in 2011 compared to 88% for the euro area as a whole) and the centre-right minority government of PM Mark Rutte and Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager has long been an advocate of strict fiscal rules in the euro area, the Netherlands no longer seems to satisfy all of our other requirements for Core membership.

The poor performance of the Dutch economy will make it very difficult for the country to reduce its general government deficit below 3% of GDP in 2012, as had been targeted, in our view. As a consequence of the euro area sovereign debt and banking crisis, financing conditions in the Netherlands have tightened, creating pressure on the country’s highly leveraged households, which is likely to lead to further contractions in house prices and domestic demand. As the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis1 (CPB) highlighted in March, large fiscal tightening is required in order to meet the fiscal targets in 2012/13. But the minority centre-right government, which even with support from the extreme-right wing Freedom Party no longer has a majority in Parliament, is unlikely to implement the necessary measures in our opinion. Moreover, in order to secure the Netherlands’ ratification of the fiscal compact treaty, PM Rutte needs the support of the left-wing opposition parties, which are against additional austerity measures in the current environment.

As a result, we expect the general government deficit in the Netherlands to reach 4.5% of GDP in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013, above the EA averages of 3.4% of GDP and 2.6%, respectively. The reliance of Dutch banks on Eurosystem liquidity has also multiplied since mid-2011, along with that of Italian, French and Spanish banks. While we do not expect the Netherlands to lose its AAA rating in the near-term we expect that at least S&P will put the rating on negative outlook and that spreads to Bunds will widen.
and so it goes, ms. merkel. i'm gonna start packing.
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Old 03-26-2012, 10:42 AM   #768
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

@ har-tru

this is what i was talking about earlier, regarding a concerted effort in one way or another to make berlin change its mind.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...823737,00.html

Quote:
Germany Bows to Pressure:
Merkel Comes Around to Euro-Zone Firewall Boost
europe can make berlin pay, easily. and it will. i'm packing.
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Old 03-26-2012, 10:34 PM   #769
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/03/...it-since-2009/ Definitely one for Rrrainer

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Old 03-27-2012, 02:30 PM   #770
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

@ roadmap

i want to believe what the guy posted. but bear in mind, this is germany. politically, in the grand scheme of things (and that particular move would be one of the grandest things ever, especially when implemented secretly), we suck. we suck sooooooo bad, come on, you know that. no major country on the globe can be outmaneuverd as easily as germany. i went to boarding school in england a couple of years ago and i was flat out flabbergasted about what people actually deemed germany capable of. when did berlin ever come up with something as big as an euro exit and eventually pulled it off? never. you may go back 500 years, have a look at german states/territories - nothing.

that's the area where the anglo-saxons rock. i envy you guys for the cojones your politicians have. they may hand out some freebies, allow berlin to celebrate a couple of pyrrhic victories, make'em feel warm and jolly - but when push comes to shove, everybody knows who's gonna prevail.

you must not unterestimate the simplicity of germans. we're gonna be sucked dry, outsmarted and outplayed, and rightly so. if i was you, i'd blame my politicians for NOT taking advantage of germany. it's a no-brainer.
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Old 03-28-2012, 10:30 PM   #771
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dougie View Post
What makes you think Europe has been lagging behind? Do you really measure economic performance by whether jobs are interesting or not or how many blockbuster movies an economy produces? You think Europes problems are solved by entertainment? As boring as it sounds, hard work and taxation are the only things that can turn around the vicious cycle, the huge debts that have been building.
GDP figures don't lie. The average American is 30% more productive than the average Western European (Eastern Europe lags even more). Europe's problem is they're more worried about "doing what needs to be done" rather than enjoying life. Your attitude is one of the reasons why Finland has a high suicide rate.


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Originally Posted by Dougie View Post
Besides, the futuristic industries have hardly kept the US citizen from having huge debts themselves. While the US GDP growth has been impressive compared to EU countries, it´s been fueled by borrowed money, which is the primary resons fot the whole credit crisis.
Europeans borrow money too. Where do you think the eurozone crisis came from? No economy can grow without borrowing. The Chinese are borrowing more than anyone at the moment. It's not about the quantity but the quality of borrowing. Americans have proven themselves to be better at lending money than Europeans.


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Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
then again, narrowing it down is obviously complicated. nothing "genetic" about it. in fact, most big players in silicon valley are either first - or second-generation immigrants, hardly the average representative of the us of a.

add to that stuff like the huge homogenous market. give sweden ~ 300 mil people and its new media sector would easily match america's. when it comes to patents and trademarks, per capita most european countries easily outdistance america anyways (so do japan and several other asian countries). the one thing truly american is the all-out perfection in marketing and branding. nobody will touch them on that. ever.
Don't know where you get that from. Most Americans are of European decent and most big players have been around for several generations. Trying to brand certain Americans as "average" is like trying to describe certain Europeans as average. There's plenty of diversity across the country in terms of culture and economic strength. California is just one of many.

Shear quantity of patents is not a measure of innovation. Anyone can invent any pointless idea and ring up the patent office. Again, quality over quantity.


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Germany for example is awesome because of the manufacturing and high skill within things like the car industry. 1 job in the German car industry is probably 10 other jobs in Germany. That's how it works. Those high end manufacturing companies are solid gold for a country. It creates jobs for suppliers, sub-suppliers and so forth in a full value chain. That type of business must be kept in Europe at all costs and not be outsorced
Manufacturing cars is great but it's not everything. In fact it's nowhere near the major industry it use to be. Every blue chip company provides jobs both directly and through suppliers, sub-suppliers etc. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Coca-Cola, McDonalds, Pepsi, Walmart, Amazon - all of them are solid gold. These days the car-makers are more like silver.


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Originally Posted by ssin View Post
Basically, Europe destroyed itself in the two world wars. The damage can be only partially repaired. It was easier to rebuild buildings, but the sense of limits and insecurity has remained, even after the collapse of the Berlin wall. That wall was a good picture of Europe, not just in terms of conflicting ideologies. Europeans are generally less flexible and less confident than Americans, and 60 year time is a short period in historical perspective.
60 years is plenty of time. In 40 years Japan not only recovered but actually overtook America (briefly). The Berlin Wall perfectly illustrated the gulf between European-style socialism and American-style freedom.
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Old 03-29-2012, 12:27 PM   #772
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

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Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
Don't know where you get that from. Most Americans are of European decent and most big players have been around for several generations.
in silicon valley? the valley itself hasn't even been around for several generations.

Quote:
Trying to brand certain Americans as "average" is like trying to describe certain Europeans as average. There's plenty of diversity across the country in terms of culture and economic strength. California is just one of many.
well, you started talking about "americans are this" and "europeans are that", i just took it from there. at some point there's no way around generalisations.

Quote:
Shear quantity of patents is not a measure of innovation. Anyone can invent any pointless idea and ring up the patent office. Again, quality over quantity.
...which is why i specifically stated per capita.

*edit: i agree with you on the auto thing btw. vastly overrated industry.

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Old 03-29-2012, 12:34 PM   #773
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

onto some chart porn...



interesting to see that japanese investors have apparently lost faith in equities even more than european investors.

click on "Bild in Originalgröße anzeigen".
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Old 03-29-2012, 06:47 PM   #774
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Why are the Japanese and Europeans so afraid of equities when bank deposit returns don't even keep up with inflation?

Is it normal in European economic charts to include some soft porn on the page to attract viewers?
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Old 03-29-2012, 06:51 PM   #775
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
GDP figures don't lie. The average American is 30% more productive than the average Western European (Eastern Europe lags even more). Europe's problem is they're more worried about "doing what needs to be done" rather than enjoying life. Your attitude is one of the reasons why Finland has a high suicide rate.



Europeans borrow money too. Where do you think the eurozone crisis came from? No economy can grow without borrowing. The Chinese are borrowing more than anyone at the moment. It's not about the quantity but the quality of borrowing. Americans have proven themselves to be better at lending money than Europeans.
One of the biggest reasons for Europeans being less productive than Americans is that they work less. In Europe people have for example proper length holidays and people get out of working life early enough to enjoy some of the final 10-20 years of their lives. And that´s a good thing. I´d say these are what you would call "enjoying life". As for finnish suicide rates, unless you have some factual knowledge on that subject, I´d suggest you leave that topic alone.

I´m well aware that borrowed money is essential for growth. I´m not quite sure what you mean by americans being better at lending than europeans. Are you talking about the talented private sector banks that lent bigger house loans than private citizens could ever handle, then packed these into toxic drivatives that took them practically out of business when the market crashed, took government aid to survive, only to hand out huge bonuses the next financial year? Quality lending, really.
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Old 03-29-2012, 08:12 PM   #776
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

On suicide rates, I posted a study in another thread that found that people from happier countries tend to commit more suicides because depressed people feel that they're so much worse off than the average person.
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Old 03-29-2012, 08:29 PM   #777
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Lots of "scientific studies" are in fact rubbish.
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Old 03-30-2012, 12:18 PM   #778
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...r&dlvrit=56943

Quote:
Greek PM does not rule out new bailout package
lovely. ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddyholly
Why are the Japanese and Europeans so afraid of equities when bank deposit returns don't even keep up with inflation?

Is it normal in European economic charts to include some soft porn on the page to attract viewers?
pro-equities propaganda hasn't caught on over here as much as in america. saving has always been the way to go. taking risks doesn't mesh well with the general european mindset, ex uk, to some extent.

porn does mesh well with it though, yes.
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Old 04-02-2012, 11:14 AM   #779
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...d-on-espionage

Quote:
Switzerland Wants German Investigators Arrested on Espionage
parasites...banksters...money launderers...tax evaders...vandalisers of the european fabric...

i love the spd for proposing medals of honour for the investigators.
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Old 04-02-2012, 11:33 AM   #780
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Can't wait for those to be arrested...
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