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Old 01-13-2012, 08:25 PM   #631
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

i've said it before: to me, germany's position doesn't look as rosy as some analysts make you believe. in the short term things might not fall apart completely, but remember: whatever happens to emu nations will eventually backfire. berlin is the last resort for all the liabilities europe has to cope with. just like the rest of the continent, we could easily end up bankrupt, crushed by an avalanche of debt.

anyways, given the lack of stamina most ecb members have shown so far, i guess hyperinflation will be the way to go in the end - which in turn will once again hit germany the most, as our savings rate is still out of this world. so no matter how you look at the mess, there's no way out, we're all in this together. and most europeans hate the kind of "schicksalsgemeinschaft" the elite deemed perfect back in the days. for different reasons though. just makes it that much more complicated.
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Old 01-13-2012, 08:46 PM   #632
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
i've said it before: to me, germany's position doesn't look as rosy as some analysts make you believe. in the short term things might not fall apart completely, but remember: whatever happens to emu nations will eventually backfire. berlin is the last resort for all the liabilities europe has to cope with. just like the rest of the continent, we could easily end up bankrupt, crushed by an avalanche of debt.

anyways, given the lack of stamina most ecb members have shown so far, i guess hyperinflation will be the way to go in the end - which in turn will once again hit germany the most, as our savings rate is still out of this world. so no matter how you look at the mess, there's no way out, we're all in this together. and most europeans hate the kind of "schicksalsgemeinschaft" the elite deemed perfect back in the days. for different reasons though. just makes it that much more complicated.
That common fate you talk about was seen with enthusiasm and optimism by most Europeans, north and south, east and west, just ten years ago.

It is the elite that have the biggest chunk of the blame pie, that goes without saying.

If this gets really nasty, Germany will suffer too. And if everyone falls, then it will fall too. But the fall won't be as hard as for the others, and it will rise up again quicker.

And what accounts for that is certainly in part own merit, but there's more to it than that.
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Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 01-13-2012, 09:23 PM   #633
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
actually i'm a big fan of the rating agencies. they should've cut pretty much every single western nation's outlook much earlier. if anything, they've been sugar-coating all the doom that was waiting for the world economy beneath the surface. be bold, s&p, keep harassing us!
I would agree to you if the Rating agencies would have downgraded every country with big depth directly after the Lehman crash. But they looked at them and didn´t say anything. They make themselve questionable because of their late reaction.

I mean after they wrongly gave good ratings to Lehman Brothers until the day before they crashed, it would have been understandable if they would have taken a deeper look into the depth of all countries they rate to prevent another wrong rating. It seems as if they prefered to wait until several countries simply couldn´t lend money anymore to the former conditions.
But shouldn´t they warn before these things happen?
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Old 01-13-2012, 10:29 PM   #634
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

ECB should start printing. It's time for a weaker euro - long overdue. €300-€400billion ought to do the trick.

Aren't these currency wars fun?
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Old 01-13-2012, 11:17 PM   #635
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

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ECB should start printing. It's time for a weaker euro - long overdue. €300-€400billion ought to do the trick.

Aren't these currency wars fun?
i agree, and not just due to the cultural and economic issues running from south to north, but also from an east to west perspective as well... a devalued currency will help quicken the parity of countries that have the inbuilt potential for productivity yet are still hurting from lack of foreign investment borne by the unattractiveness of a strong euro (for their real economies at least) and the lasting scars of oppressive socialism...
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Old 01-14-2012, 12:52 AM   #636
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

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Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
ECB should start printing. It's time for a weaker euro - long overdue. €300-€400billion ought to do the trick.

Aren't these currency wars fun?
http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2012/01/a-...its-of-hormuz/ Very interesting.
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Old 01-14-2012, 08:08 AM   #637
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimnik View Post
ECB should start printing. It's time for a weaker euro - long overdue. €300-€400billion ought to do the trick.

Aren't these currency wars fun?
ron paul jr. asking for an intervention by central banks?! what a crazy world we live in...

@ boarder: the thing is that ratings agencies aren't capable of properly digesting black swan events. banks go out of business if markets lose confidence and virtually cut them off from refinancing tools. lehman virtually collapsed over night, the company did indeed look fairly okay the day before everything went down the drain. taking this kind of danger into account, virtually no banking insitution deserves an a-status, let alone triple a.

@ har-tru: i'm not sure about what you say. i'm really worried that once germany's bailed out the rest, nobody will be left to come to our rescue. sucked dry, politically isolated, left for dead. welcome to germany 2.0.
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:34 AM   #638
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

The poor Germans still immersed in their hard struggle for survival:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45924199/Germ...ime_in_Auction
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Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 01-16-2012, 09:41 AM   #639
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

it's called a "pyrrhussieg" in german. look it up.
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Old 01-16-2012, 12:08 PM   #640
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

What makes you think that I need to look that up?

The same expression exists in English: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/pyrrhic+victory, and also in Spanish and Italian.

It's a historical reference actually. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_War

Quote:
The two armies separated; and we are told that Pyrrhus said to one who was congratulating him on his victory, "If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined."
I recommend Indro Montanelli's History of Rome for an illustrative and detailed account of it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 01-16-2012, 05:37 PM   #641
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

alrighty, so you know what i think about these negative yields' ramifications.
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Old 01-16-2012, 06:08 PM   #642
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

Yeah I know, and like I said you're right in that, if things get really nasty, nobody will be safe.

But in the meantime, it doesn't hurt to get paid for getting money, does it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 01-16-2012, 06:58 PM   #643
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

for the time being it doesn't. but it feels like many politicians in berlin actualyl do believe we're living on some kind of island that doesn't need to fear the ripple effects of crises in the neighborhood.

und die einschläge kommen näher:

http://europe.wsj.com/home-page

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BREAKING NEWS - S&P lowers its rating on the European Financial Stability Facility to double-A-plus from triple-A
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:18 PM   #644
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

RE Hyperinflation: The editorial page of the Wall Street Journal is not a good guide to build intuition on the issue. On the other hand, the debate on Keynesian economics between "Fresh-Water School" (notably, Krugman) and the "Chicago-Salt Water School" advocates borders on theological beliefs in my mind. Unfortunately there is no way to run laboratory experiments to settle the differences.

A good link on the central bank policy implications:

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012...#axzz1jeZpO7Ov
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Old 01-16-2012, 08:20 PM   #645
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Default Re: Financial clusterfuck in Europe

The crucial issue is that relative prices get distorted and market prices lose some of their information content. The result is that decisions to save/invest cannot result optimally, from the point of view of maximizing total social welfare.
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