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Old 10-29-2011, 06:30 PM   #271
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

I'm getting more confused every day. If everybody owes huge amounts - who is it all owed to. Can't all be to China, surely?
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Old 10-29-2011, 07:45 PM   #272
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15503097



just when you think you've seen it all...
Surely I'll get in the under 40% category tax-wise now...
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Old 10-30-2011, 04:49 AM   #273
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by buddyholly View Post
I'm getting more confused every day. If everybody owes huge amounts - who is it all owed to. Can't all be to China, surely?
nope, as of now china's pretty much out of the equasion. they're likely to swoop in through the back door though. klaus regling, the head of the efsf, is currently in beijing, sweetening the offer to be a part of the bail-out frenzy.

these two graphics might give you an idea of the never-ending clusterfuck that is the international debt crisis:





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Old 10-30-2011, 09:20 AM   #274
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

wow... 55 bill... i saw that in monopoly though one time... i landed on Community Chest once.... shit myself... i picked up the card and it said 'Bank Error in your favour. Collect $10.' ... these things happen like, you know...?

american interest is still in europe big time... fed backers aka goldman sachs will rally behind the ecb for as long as nations allow themselves to be bullied into taking yet more loans and tieing themselves into the system deeper... an extended crisis will only serve to cheapen the value of all and sundry in europe - who does that serve...?

that german rush on gold 3 years back looks good business right about now
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Old 10-30-2011, 05:45 PM   #275
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

Look at us all go,
merrily, merrily,
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Old 10-31-2011, 07:59 AM   #276
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

debt-wise japan seems to be the most interesting country around. since the 80s its debt has skyrocketed and there's no end in sight, given that the government has to cope with fukushima. add to that the rapidly aging population and hardly any immigration.

you'd think japan wouldn't stand a chance to keep its double-a-rating, let alone triple-a - but apparently the agencies haven't considered any downgrade so far. i'd love to hear why that is the case. obviously belief in the japanese society is still very strong (understandably so), but still.
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Old 10-31-2011, 08:05 AM   #277
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Why is it that all the non-European 'Western' countries OK economically (except for Japan [who's been in a recession for the past 20 years] and the US), but the European economy is down the shithole?
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Old 10-31-2011, 08:26 AM   #278
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by morgieb View Post
Why is it that all the non-European 'Western' countries OK economically (except for Japan [who's been in a recession for the past 20 years] and the US), but the European economy is down the shithole?
which countries do you mean? take europe and the u.s. out of "the west", what's left? latin america? well, those countries do okay because they have no such thing as a welfare state. you're poor, you die, in a nutshell.

the only western countries similar to europe and the u.s. are canada and australia. vast amounts of natural resources keep them afloat.
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Old 10-31-2011, 09:41 AM   #279
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rrrainer View Post
debt-wise japan seems to be the most interesting country around. since the 80s its debt has skyrocketed and there's no end in sight, given that the government has to cope with fukushima. add to that the rapidly aging population and hardly any immigration.

you'd think japan wouldn't stand a chance to keep its double-a-rating, let alone triple-a - but apparently the agencies haven't considered any downgrade so far. i'd love to hear why that is the case. obviously belief in the japanese society is still very strong (understandably so), but still.
But Japan owes money mainly to itself, not to foreigners. Perhaps that's the reason. Whether they pay up or don't, capital doesn't leave the country.
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Old 11-01-2011, 04:07 AM   #280
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by peribsen View Post
But Japan owes money mainly to itself, not to foreigners. Perhaps that's the reason. Whether they pay up or don't, capital doesn't leave the country.
Yes, their massive national debt (over 200% of GDP) is public and they hardly pay any interest on it.
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Old 11-01-2011, 05:21 AM   #281
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by peribsen
But Japan owes money mainly to itself, not to foreigners. Perhaps that's the reason. Whether they pay up or don't, capital doesn't leave the country.
yep, that could be it, true.

things in europe could heat up again:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...t-fresh-crisis

Quote:
Greece throws euro bailout into fresh crisis...Prime minister stuns fellow leaders with proposal that his country should hold referendum on landmark debt deal...
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Old 11-01-2011, 06:24 AM   #282
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Thoughts?:

Quote:
A Hellenic Haircut
by Srdja Trifkovic • October 28th, 2011 • Related • Filed Under
[Subscribe online to Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture. Click here for details].


There will be no Greek default—not for months to come at least, as we predicted here two weeks ago. The private banks that had splashed out on ostensibly lucrative Greek bonds will have to accept a “haircut” of fifty percent of their nominal value, according to an agreement reached early Thursday morning after days of tense talks between French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, other euro zone leaders and private financial institutions.

Greece’s private-sector debt is now down to 100 billion euros, and the country will continue its long road to nowhere with zero growth, cuts and austerity. Even after the 50 percent write down its debt is still 90 percent of the country’s GDP and for as long as it stays in the euro the burden can never be paid off. To make the banks agree to the deal, however, the euro zone governments had to offer them inducements in the form of “credit enhancements”—bureaucratese for provision of low-cost government liquidity—worth over a third of the “haircut” itself.

More significantly perhaps, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will be boosted to €1tn ($1.4tn)—which may not be enough to preempt another crisis in a big southern economy, such as Italy or Spain. Merkel’s plan is to use the facility to provide insurance on new Italian and Spanish government bonds, but private investors are yet to be convinced that the fund will actually pay out in case of a large sovereign getting into trouble. If the insurance option is not embraced by private investors, the EFSF’s one trillion euros will be woefully insufficient to contain even the likely fallout from Grece’s half-default, let alone a major future crisis. This is the main weakness of the deal reached in Brussels. The European Financial Stability Fund needs to be expanded to be credible, and yet it cannot be done without issuing Eurobonds which the Germans unsurprisingly refuse to underwrite.

The elephant in the room is the euro itself. Back in 1990 the common currency was a French idea, the late François Mitterrand’s condition for his approval of Germany’s reunification. In theory it was supposed to remove exchange rate risks from the euro zone market, reduce the costs of transactions, stimulate cross-border trade, create an area of monetary stability, and force member countries to practice fiscal responsibility. The unstated intent was to curtail the power of the Deutschmark and to bind reunited Germany more closely to Europe. It was to be Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s burnt offering on the altar of European integration. In January 2002, colorful new banknotes and coins replaced national currencies in the initial 11 countries of the Eurozone.

In the early years the plan worked to the advantage of the periphery. All of a sudden, it was possible to obtain loans in Athens, Madrid or Dublin at interest rates as low as those in Berlin or Frankfurt. The result was a period of southern rapid growth—largely financed by northern capital in quest of fresh opportunities—and German stagnation. The “PIIGS” (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) used the cheap cash not to modernize their economies, however, or to increase their competitiveness, but to finance speculative projects and to indulge in excessive public and private consumption. Tens of billions went into building booms along the Spanish Costas and into Greek government bonds. Ireland’s growth reached 4.5 percent in 2004, fueled by a property boom but not accompanied by an improvement in its international competitiveness.

However seemingly disadvantageous for the Germans, the new situation proved to be a blessing in disguise for them. The periphery was awash in investment funds and it was temporarily oblivious to the fact that it could no longer defend its markets against future German imports through periodic devaluations. The Germans grasped the implications, however. The manufacturers realized that their only chance was to become ever more efficient and globally competitive. The workers had to endure years of flat wages and high unemployment. The fruits have been ample: since 2007 Germany’s export-led economy has continued growing in spite of the crisis. Its budget deficit will drop to zero in 2014 and likely move into the black thereafter.

A conspiracy theorist may argue that the Germans had known all along that the euro would create a captive market for their export juggernaut. The southern periphery could no longer protect its domestic markets from the deluge of better made, more efficiently produced German goods by resorting to occasional devaluations vis-à-vis the Deutschmark. The gap was bridged by northern commercial banks supplying loans for southern purchasers of mainly German goods. The southern periphery is now caught in a triple bind: its exports cannot grow because they cannot be boosted by devaluation, its domestic demand cannot be stimulated because they are forced to implement draconian austerity measures, and its economies are additionally burdened by high interest rates on German-led, multi-hundred-billion rescue packages.

By design or by default, Germany appears to have created a new European order which it dominates more effectively than she ever controlled the short-lived New European Order seven decades ago. The trouble is that the financial and political burden of the euro-project is becoming almost as steep for Germany as the price of running the global empire continues to be for the United States. Writing off a significant portion of southern debt, a la Greece’s “haircut,” creates a precedent that may create similar expectations in other, much larger troubled economies. The alternative is to continue making large net transfers and putting together ad-hoc rescue packages when crises erupt, but the will of the German political and financial establishments to continue doing so is wearing thin. The periodic crises will continue until the euro is taken apart, or until the four PIGS—and perhaps Italy, too—are expelled from the Eurozone.

Euro-enthusiasts predictably argue that without monetary union the exchange rates would fluctuate wildly and destroy the Union. In reality, trying to keep the euro zone afloat at any price is the biggest threat to the Union. For as long as the euro is upheld, the European Central Bank will be trying to square the circle of operating a single monetary policy and uniform interest rates for a widely different group of countries. The results will be periodical emergencies all along the periphery. They will take different forms at different times—a fiscal crisis here, a banking collapse there, a property slump everywhere—but like the erupting lava finding its way through the Earth’s crust, the crises will never stop and can never be resolved.

Only on the ruins of the Eurozone, or perhaps after it is reduced to its northern, hard-currency, inflation-free core, will it be possible to recreate a self-adjusting exchange rate mechanism reflecting different countries’ economic efficiencies and fiscal policies. Once it is accepted that the euro had always been a political project not justified by economic considerations, the ongoing drama would be finally over. Such outcome would benefit Europe and the rest of the world.
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Old 11-01-2011, 09:01 AM   #283
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

hey aloimeh, honestly: i have no idea. apparently the same goes for pretty much every single politician and economist out there.

some want more spending, others want less. some want to nationalize banks, others want to split them up. some want greece to fail, others want to prop it up. some want to bury the euro, others want more countries to join. some want china and russia to swoop in, others want to block anyone not american or european.

it's nothing short of a huge international mess. i believe we should go for short-term pain and long-term gain: greece needs to leave the euro-zone to get its house in order again. chances are such a move would lead to an financial earthquake across the globe but in 10 years' time people might think it was the right thing to do. perpetually propping things up just doesn't work.
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Old 11-01-2011, 12:34 PM   #284
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by fast_clay View Post
wow... 55 bill... i saw that in monopoly though one time... i landed on Community Chest once.... shit myself... i picked up the card and it said 'Bank Error in your favour. Collect $10.' ... these things happen like, you know...?

american interest is still in europe big time... fed backers aka goldman sachs will rally behind the ecb for as long as nations allow themselves to be bullied into taking yet more loans and tieing themselves into the system deeper... an extended crisis will only serve to cheapen the value of all and sundry in europe - who does that serve...?

that german rush on gold 3 years back looks good business right about now
I want to goodrep you for all of your posts on this topic and your sound views. About the American interest, you are 100% right. But hey, why not? Europe has been destroying itself for centuries. Actually, 20th century wars in Europe, especially WW2 made the USA what it is, and rightfully so. and Europe in particular deserves to be squeezed to the maximum for the huge amount of shit & self-destruction we have produced since the French Revolution to this day, and the US (whatever it means) should reap the benefits, better them than anyone else in the world. That is one side of the story.

On the other hand, I understand people burdened with debts worldwide. They were enticed and hooked. But at the end of the day everything is still up to people, up to each individual. Bankers are doing their stuff, you just need to be smart enough to protect what you have, otherwise the smarter guy will leave you with empty pockets and you won't even notice it, and then what. Burn your own towns and yell down with the government? This is a very old story, old as a mankind. But then if many people took much money from the greedy bankers, and cannot pay them back...people can actually say fuck you, you're gonna get shit, and the sheer possibility of many people joined together saying that is something they are very afraid of, all of them together with the governments and we know whose interests they are likely to protect more.

I personally don't owe anything to any bank and I am proud of that. Just hate the concept. I do use credit cards but those with strict limits.
I will never be among the protesters, obviously I will stay somewhere in the middle, no man's land, and won't take sides except my own. When it comes to money you have to play the game they invented, short-term and long-term. Otherwise get a small farm and produce what you need yourself. Or burn down the government houses, I personally don't care as long as it does not disrupt the general security. When it comes to money everyone is on their own, this is the way it has been since forever and it wont be changed with any kind of ideology of philosophy, as long as there is money as such.

I made what turned out to be a good move when I converted some of my hard earned cash to gold back in 2008, but when you have a financial crisis, cash also becomes the king. So it's time to get some of my cash back but god only knows what to do where to put it now. Food industry seems ok.

As for Greeks their government was baaaad for years and they will have to pay now, this way or another. I would opt for default, getting out of eurozone, and a big fat fuck you to creditors, with slow and gradual recovery but this time on solid grounds.

Just my 2 cents, I know I am very simplistic about things, obviously I don't have the ambition to correct the ways of the world.
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Old 11-01-2011, 08:39 PM   #285
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Yesterday, Ireland suddenly 'discovered' an accountancy mistake, meaning they owe 3600 million euros less.... A couple of days ago it was Germany that 'found' very much the same...

Don't know about you, but to me this sounds pretty suspicious. Wouldn't be the first time a country tried to doctor its economic results.

Germany likes to play the role of innocent victim of all this mess, but let's not forget that, a few years ago, both Germany and France unilaterally decided to raise the inflation target that had been demanded by the EU for all member states, who faced penalties if they didn't comply. The reason was, of course, that they had overshot it. They would have never taken that sort of measure if it had been others who overshot it, now would they?

Just another reason for credibility to be on the ropes.
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