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Old 10-08-2011, 03:53 PM   #211
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
Of course nobody can feel smug about it.

But have you stopped wondering why Germany is in a position to mandate in the first place? That's right, responsible government spending, dynamic private sector, off-the-charts productivity...
I'm mostly interested in discussing the crisis, as well of course as the comparative case of my country. You seem to be almost exclusively interested in defending Germany. Probably that comes out of other arguments you've had with other posters, but it largely seems to be misplaced here.

And all of the reasons you give above for Germany's place in Europe are certainly correct, but it seems yous nationalism prevents you from mentioning others that are more merely factual than necessarily praiseworthy: rich countryside, huge population, mostly flat terrain, etc. I think nobody will care to argue against the fact that barren, hilly and dry Greece, southern Italy, Ireland (not dry, but very much all of the rest) or southern Spain and Portugal live and always have lived under far more limited conditions for development than, say, flat and rich France with dozens of wide rivers.

Not to mention the fact that your country received huge grants to kick start your economy after the 2nd WW, while some others of us with, er, let's say a bit less responsibility for the war were blackballed (for suffering a far less extreme version of the sort of government you had been peddling in the 30s) and didn't get a penny until we joined the EU. Some regions of Spain have never been rich, but between 1900 and 1935 our average income managed to be about 75% that of northwestern Europe. The violent 30s, followed by global mayhem in the early 40s, followed by being a political pariah until the 60s, brought our average income to below 40% of yours, very much a historical low. We trecked it back to usual levels before joining the EU. Unlike you, we did it by ourselves.

For some reason or other, some would have the Marshall plan to be both deserved and an example of sensible policy, but EU cohesion grants to be spendthrift and countries receiving them mere beggars. The irony involved is simply mindboggling.

Nevertheless, I'm here to discuss the crisis, in no way to attack a friendly country like Germany.
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Old 10-08-2011, 05:00 PM   #212
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

You? Your? Your nationalism? Mate, you do know your country is the same as mine, right?


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Originally Posted by peribsen View Post
I'm mostly interested in discussing the crisis, as well of course as the comparative case of my country. You seem to be almost exclusively interested in defending Germany. Probably that comes out of other arguments you've had with other posters, but it largely seems to be misplaced here.
I was responding to a post of yours where you largely discuss Germany's paper in this whole issue.

Quote:
And all of the reasons you give above for Germany's place in Europe are certainly correct, but it seems yous nationalism prevents you from mentioning others that are more merely factual than necessarily praiseworthy: rich countryside, huge population, mostly flat terrain, etc. I think nobody will care to argue against the fact that barren, hilly and dry Greece, southern Italy, Ireland (not dry, but very much all of the rest) or southern Spain and Portugal live and always have lived under far more limited conditions for development than, say, flat and rich France with dozens of wide rivers.
Wait, France or Germany? I don't know about France, but I would very much care to argue that, when compared to the countries you mentioned, Germany is very much in the disadvantage with regards to arable land. Are you telling me that Spain, Italy and Greece are less fertile than Germany? Are you seriously trying to make that point? And that's not even mentioning the apparent contradiction between your first and second points: the high population density of Germany means less land per capita, less rural surface.

Frankly, I am quite baffled, I have never seen anyone try to make the point that you're trying to make.

Quote:
Not to mention the fact that your country received huge grants to kick start your economy after the 2nd WW, while some others of us with, er, let's say a bit less responsibility for the war were blackballed (for suffering a far less extreme version of the sort of government you had been peddling in the 30s) and didn't get a penny until we joined the EU. Some regions of Spain have never been rich, but between 1900 and 1935 our average income managed to be about 75% that of northwestern Europe. The violent 30s, followed by global mayhem in the early 40s, followed by being a political pariah until the 60s, brought our average income to below 40% of yours, very much a historical low. We trecked it back to usual levels before joining the EU. Unlike you, we did it by ourselves.
I'm quite aware of Spain's history. That is a much broader topic and this is not the place, but let us focus on the money issue. By virtue of being trigger-happy and spending three years killing each other, the Spaniards kickstarted a 20-year period where the country was the national equivalent of a recently burned field. The Germs, by virtue of being as trigger-happy but directing their anger towards others, found themselves with their country not only as messed up as Spain, but also chopped to 61% of their former total surface (the land argument again). So they received some help from the yanks to help them get up, and they did admirably. Now years later Spain enters the EU and starts receiving some pennies from, notably, their teutonic friends.

So as you say, Spain managed to, by itself, turn up in 1986 with some significant structural and economic shortages with respect to their nordic partners. And after 25 years of getting penny after penny from them, it still has those shortages. While on the other hand, the Germans have managed to stay on top despite helping others for decades AND having to lift up the five former GDR Bundesländer... by themselves.

Quote:
For some reason or other, some would have the Marshall plan to be both deserved and an example of sensible policy, but EU cohesion grants to be spendthrift and countries receiving them mere beggars. The irony involved is simply mindboggling.
Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Marshall plan had some apparent visible positive effects, while the EU grants have been of, to put it mildly, dubious significant effectiveness?
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Old 10-08-2011, 05:45 PM   #213
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
I was responding to a post of yours where you largely discuss Germany's paper in this whole issue.
You've been making the same point all over the thread. The post you are referring to was the first I wrote here. I fail to see how your first answer had anything to do with it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
Wait, France or Germany? I don't know about France, but I would very much care to argue that, when compared to the countries you mentioned, Germany is very much in the disadvantage with regards to arable land. Are you telling me that Spain, Italy and Greece are less fertile than Germany? Are you seriously trying to make that point? And that's not even mentioning the apparent contradiction between your first and second points: the high population density of Germany means less land per capita, less rural surface.
I was putting France as an example of Northern Europe: mostly flat, a lot of water, huge rivers apt for internal communications. That's just as valid for Germany. Building 100 km of road or rail in Spain is worth more than double than in those countries, as you surely know.

Much of Spain is fit only for raising olives.

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Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
I'm quite aware of Spain's history. That is a much broader topic and this is not the place, but let us focus on the money issue. By virtue of being trigger-happy and spending three years killing each other, the Spaniards kickstarted a 20-year period where the country was the national equivalent of a recently burned field. The Germs, by virtue of being as trigger-happy but directing their anger towards others, found themselves with their country not only as messed up as Spain, but also chopped to 61% of their former total surface (the land argument again). So they received some help from the yanks to help them get up, and they did admirably. Now years later Spain enters the EU and starts receiving some pennies from, notably, their teutonic friends.
I'm not talking about Spaniards' resposibility for their own history, but about the irony that we ended being vilified for it while others received very significant help to rebuild their economies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Har-Tru View Post
Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that the Marshall plan had some apparent visible positive effects, while the EU grants have been of, to put it mildly, dubious significant effectiveness?
That is extremely unfair with your own country. You know quite well that Spanish infrastructure has changed dramatically over the last quarter of a century, not to speak of its hospitals, etc. In fact, I'm convinced that very few countries have, globally, put EU money to better use, in sharp contrast to say Greece. Spain's economic ills have little to do with not knowing how to use EU funds, but with being incapable of achieving a major change in its economic activity (something for which transforming the infrastructure was vital). And that is largely structural and, as you know, far more difficult to accomplish. The downturn in industrial production that has happened everywhere in the first world (and that in our case was more or less closely related with the need to adapt to a Eurpean market) was replaced by an overblown building spree of which all political parties are guilty and that was bound to burst sooner or later. It's our bad luck that the burst coincided with a global recession. With a stable global market, we may just have pulled off the trick of transitioning from an economy based largely on bricks into something new.

Anyway, we are drifting from the thead. I assure you I'm in no way complacent with Spanish society, but please stop arguing like if Germany and other rich countries were innocent parties that somehow have to bear with incompetent Southern partners, because you know that that is a very slanted view.
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Old 10-08-2011, 07:36 PM   #214
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

I'm not sure these local discussions are of any interest to MTF... but I guess it's not completely off-topic.


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You've been making the same point all over the thread. The post you are referring to was the first I wrote here. I fail to see how your first answer had anything to do with it.
But I didn't quote you, did I? You were the first to quote me. I was making a sarcastic comment, carrying on with my previous posts.

Quote:
I was putting France as an example of Northern Europe: mostly flat, a lot of water, huge rivers apt for internal communications. That's just as valid for Germany. Building 100 km of road or rail in Spain is worth more than double than in those countries, as you surely know.
Well there you go... how on earth is France Northern Europe??

Water communication is indeed easier in those countries than in the south. But the lands and the climate are much less harsh and thus more friendly to a wide arrange of crops in Southern Europe than in the cold north. Anyone who has bought fruits and vegetables in the northern countries knows what I'm talking about.

Quote:
Much of Spain is fit only for raising olives.
That is on the one hand not true, and on the other hand, what's the problem with that? Olive trees are a great asset of the Spanish economy, everybody likes olive oil.


Quote:
I'm not talking about Spaniards' resposibility for their own history, but about the irony that we ended being vilified for it while others received very significant help to rebuild their economies.
I know what you mean and you have a point. However, let's not forget EU funds are much more significant than the Marshall Plan was, at least in pure economic terms. The Marshall Plan lasted 4 years, from 1948 to 1952, while countries like Spain have been receiving EU grants for 25 years and counting.

Quote:
That is extremely unfair with your own country. You know quite well that Spanish infrastructure has changed dramatically over the last quarter of a century, not to speak of its hospitals, etc. In fact, I'm convinced that very few countries have, globally, put EU money to better use, in sharp contrast to say Greece.
They've been put to better use than in other countries, yes. Still, I have long maintained that their impact has been greatly exaggerated. And I'll say more: they've been at times damaging and badly planned. Hospitals built with EU money, but kept undercrewed because of lack of personnel. Farmers resorting to extreme tactics to receive funds, messing up the sector in the process. And most importantly (and we'll start to see this in some years' time) they've clogged the economy of the receiving country, having a stagnating effect on the private and, mainly, on the public sector. Kind of like the spoiled kid who has trouble sorting out his own stuff when he leaves the nest.

But I'll give you that, positive results are to be found and that is surely not the main problem of the Spanish economy.

Quote:
Spain's economic ills have little to do with not knowing how to use EU funds, but with being incapable of achieving a major change in its economic activity (something for which transforming the infrastructure was vital). And that is largely structural and, as you know, far more difficult to accomplish. The downturn in industrial production that has happened everywhere in the first world (and that in our case was more or less closely related with the need to adapt to a Eurpean market) was replaced by an overblown building spree of which all political parties are guilty and that was bound to burst sooner or later. It's our bad luck that the burst coincided with a global recession. With a stable global market, we may just have pulled off the trick of transitioning from an economy based largely on bricks into something new.
The problem with Spain is structural as you say, and it has to be addressed through education. It's the values of the people that have to be changed. It's not the politicians' fault, not the bankers' fault, it's everyone's fault.

I'm sorry if I sound too harsh, the Germans are hardly angels and are also to blame for all this mess. My point is, the peripheral countries need to step it up and start thinking for themselves and getting some productivity out of their workforce. I've done the same job in Spain and in Germany, and as the kid in that movie said, I've seen things...
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Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

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The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 10-08-2011, 07:58 PM   #215
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

nice discussion... ireland's problem is relatively simple... the banks should have collapsed, the economy would have suffered a massive hit though would have recovered (as the irish economy aside from what cowboy bankers did is in quite a nice shape)... yet, the government backed the cowboys to the tune of €400Billion... bad banks happen, mistakes happen, but the last point was a needless mistake...

with the ecb and imf now spotting weakness and applying pressure 'you must take this loan, bail yourself out, you have a responsibility to europe' forced the cojones-less leadership of ireland to take a bailout and saddled the public economy instead of standing up, calling their bluff and allowing the banks to fail anyways...

it is not a complex thing for ireland... in the free market, business fails... and so do bad banks... they are a business not worthy of extra protection so let them fail... sure, the threatened european domino effect may have occurred, may not have also... we'll never know... sadly, any government of a 'sovereign nation' should never be weighed down with the interest bearing debt...

standover merchants run the eurozone...
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Old 10-08-2011, 08:12 PM   #216
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The money multiplier is NOT the same thing as the process you described that banks just create the money out of thin air. Private banks cannot lend money that they don't have in their balance sheet. Besides the ECB sets the reserve ratios of the banks so in effect it also controls the money multiplier.

The process you're suggesting is akin to using gold as a measure of worth, and then when you run out, just mix it with other precious metals and think that the value will stay the same . The amount of gold in the society will remain the same still and it won't solve anything.

Economic growth creates more money in a society, not printing it.
You really have no idea what your talking about. FRB allows banks to lend money they don't have and create money out of nothing. It is not controversial that FRB results in an increase in the money supply. It is an undeniable fact. That the CB sets minimum reserve requirements that puts an upper limit on the amount of money creation by commercial banks does not change the fact that they are creating money. You are also ignoring the reality of CB's being essentially private institutions with minimal oversight from any democratic institution.

The process I'm suggesting is to take the money creation power away from private and quasi-private banks and restore it to the government and to take debt out of the money creation process. That's the only difference.

That's such nonsense I can hardly believe I'm reading it. Central banks and FRB create more money. Again, this is not controversial. I'm quite frankly on your behalf for having the nerve to be so arrogant when you are so ignorant of basic economic truths.
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Old 10-08-2011, 08:20 PM   #217
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by fast_clay View Post
nice discussion... ireland's problem is relatively simple... the banks should have collapsed, the economy would have suffered a massive hit though would have recovered (as the irish economy aside from what cowboy bankers did is in quite a nice shape)... yet, the government backed the cowboys to the tune of €400Billion... bad banks happen, mistakes happen, but the last point was a needless mistake...

with the ecb and imf now spotting weakness and applying pressure 'you must take this loan, bail yourself out, you have a responsibility to europe' forced the cojones-less leadership of ireland to take a bailout and saddled the public economy instead of standing up, calling their bluff and allowing the banks to fail anyways...

it is not a complex thing for ireland... in the free market, business fails... and so do bad banks... they are a business not worthy of extra protection so let them fail...
sure, the threatened european domino effect may have occurred, may not have also... we'll never know... sadly, any government of a 'sovereign nation' should never be weighed down with the interest bearing debt...

standover merchants run the eurozone...
That´s exactly what the whole problem comes down to. The basic principle of financial economics is that when you borrow money, you take a risk. The risk is compensated by the interest of the loan. Right now, as Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy, what the EU is doing is not primarily to keep Greece afloat, it´s to keep the private sector banks that have a lot of money borrowed to Greece, afloat. This creates a huge moral hazard. You can take a risk, make a profit if all goes well, and if it goes bad, the tax payers will bail you out.
The problem was created a originally a long time ago, though. There is no way Greece should have ever been accepted to EMU. Then again, very few countries actually fulfilled the criteria in the first place, Greece was certainly not the only one.
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Old 10-08-2011, 11:08 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by Mjau! View Post
You really have no idea what your talking about. FRB allows banks to lend money they don't have and create money out of nothing. It is not controversial that FRB results in an increase in the money supply. It is an undeniable fact. That the CB sets minimum reserve requirements that puts an upper limit on the amount of money creation by commercial banks does not change the fact that they are creating money. You are also ignoring the reality of CB's being essentially private institutions with minimal oversight from any democratic institution.

The process I'm suggesting is to take the money creation power away from private and quasi-private banks and restore it to the government and to take debt out of the money creation process. That's the only difference.

That's such nonsense I can hardly believe I'm reading it. Central banks and FRB create more money. Again, this is not controversial. I'm quite frankly on your behalf for having the nerve to be so arrogant when you are so ignorant of basic economic truths.


What you seemed to suggest is that deficits should be reduced by simply saying that you have more money than you actually have. Wonder why no one has thought of that

Come back to me when you've actually studied some economics
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Old 10-08-2011, 11:37 PM   #219
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fast_clay View Post
nice discussion... ireland's problem is relatively simple... the banks should have collapsed, the economy would have suffered a massive hit though would have recovered (as the irish economy aside from what cowboy bankers did is in quite a nice shape)... yet, the government backed the cowboys to the tune of €400Billion... bad banks happen, mistakes happen, but the last point was a needless mistake...

with the ecb and imf now spotting weakness and applying pressure 'you must take this loan, bail yourself out, you have a responsibility to europe' forced the cojones-less leadership of ireland to take a bailout and saddled the public economy instead of standing up, calling their bluff and allowing the banks to fail anyways...

it is not a complex thing for ireland... in the free market, business fails... and so do bad banks... they are a business not worthy of extra protection so let them fail... sure, the threatened european domino effect may have occurred, may not have also... we'll never know... sadly, any government of a 'sovereign nation' should never be weighed down with the interest bearing debt...

standover merchants run the eurozone...
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Originally Posted by Dougie View Post
That´s exactly what the whole problem comes down to. The basic principle of financial economics is that when you borrow money, you take a risk. The risk is compensated by the interest of the loan. Right now, as Greece is on the verge of bankruptcy, what the EU is doing is not primarily to keep Greece afloat, it´s to keep the private sector banks that have a lot of money borrowed to Greece, afloat. This creates a huge moral hazard. You can take a risk, make a profit if all goes well, and if it goes bad, the tax payers will bail you out.
The problem was created a originally a long time ago, though. There is no way Greece should have ever been accepted to EMU. Then again, very few countries actually fulfilled the criteria in the first place, Greece was certainly not the only one.


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Armstrong says in-competition testing will never catch anyone, only out-of-competition testing and the blood passport can.

Tennis has no blood passport system, and does basically no out of competition testing.

The methods and drugs used by Armstrong in 1999 would work in tennis right now, with zero chance of being caught (not slightly surprising to anyone familiar with the topic, btw).
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Old 10-09-2011, 12:32 AM   #220
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Lopez View Post


What you seemed to suggest is that deficits should be reduced by simply saying that you have more money than you actually have. Wonder why no one has thought of that

Come back to me when you've actually studied some economics
I don't mean to offend you, but you're and ignorant! I am not suggesting that "deficits should be reduced by simply saying that you have more money than you actually have". I'm suggesting that, instead of telling a prvately controlled bank to create money out of nothing and then borrow that money at debt and interest that the public has to pay (This is exactly what we're doing now. This is the cause of national debt and the interest on that debt.), we should simply create that money without debt and interest.

We (the state) are not covering deficits by borrowing money that already exists. We're covering deficits by borrowing money that did not already exist, that was created out of nothing and we have to pay interest on that nothing. I suggest the state should not pay interest on nothing.

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Old 10-09-2011, 08:29 AM   #221
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Originally Posted by Mjau! View Post
I don't mean to offend you, but you're and ignorant! I am not suggesting that "deficits should be reduced by simply saying that you have more money than you actually have". I'm suggesting that, instead of telling a prvately controlled bank to create money out of nothing and then borrow that money at debt and interest that the public has to pay (This is exactly what we're doing now. This is the cause of national debt and the interest on that debt.), we should simply create that money without debt and interest.

We (the state) are not covering deficits by borrowing money that already exists. We're covering deficits by borrowing money that did not already exist, that was created out of nothing and we have to pay interest on that nothing. I suggest the state should not pay interest on nothing.

No offence, Im sure I´m missing the point of your post, but you do realise that money cannot simply be created? Especially not in the euro zone, where one country creating money instead of borrowing would alter the exchange rate for all euro-countries.. The history is full of sad examples of countries that tried this ( Hungary, Germany etc.), and the inflation rates skyrocketed. Even the possibility of this kind of action would increase the inflation expectations dramatically. But like I said, I probably missed the point of your post..-

What Greece would need now is to go back to their own currency and devalue that. Thats the start of the healing process, not endless borrowing with a strong common currency. But that´s another issue...
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Old 10-09-2011, 11:02 AM   #222
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Talking Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Dougie View Post
No offence, Im sure I´m missing the point of your post, but you do realise that money cannot simply be created? Especially not in the euro zone, where one country creating money instead of borrowing would alter the exchange rate for all euro-countries.. The history is full of sad examples of countries that tried this ( Hungary, Germany etc.), and the inflation rates skyrocketed. Even the possibility of this kind of action would increase the inflation expectations dramatically. But like I said, I probably missed the point of your post..-

What Greece would need now is to go back to their own currency and devalue that. Thats the start of the healing process, not endless borrowing with a strong common currency. But that´s another issue...
You're not missing anything...

And you're very right about the devaluation.

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I don't mean to offend you, but you're and ignorant! I am not suggesting that "deficits should be reduced by simply saying that you have more money than you actually have". I'm suggesting that, instead of telling a prvately controlled bank to create money out of nothing and then borrow that money at debt and interest that the public has to pay (This is exactly what we're doing now. This is the cause of national debt and the interest on that debt.), we should simply create that money without debt and interest.

We (the state) are not covering deficits by borrowing money that already exists. We're covering deficits by borrowing money that did not already exist, that was created out of nothing and we have to pay interest on that nothing. I suggest the state should not pay interest on nothing.
Sorry if i'm being rude but you just don't get simple economic logic... What you're sugggesting is very different from the money multiplier effect. A loan that has no interest is not a loan, but a donation. You do realize what a ridiculous suggestion is that states should cover their budget deficits by donating money to themselves?

There is no point in using a currency to measure value if that currency is not scarce.

Denying banks the opportunity to reinvest the funds that they hold would sevely reduce the gdp and thus, the personal wealth of everyone.
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lol, who will beat him? Wawrinka? Berdych? Gulbis? Rosol? Federer?

Only Del Potro can take him out before the semis, and he won't. Nadal is winning the AO, bet your house on it.
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Old 10-09-2011, 03:07 PM   #223
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

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Originally Posted by Lopez View Post
You're not missing anything...

And you're very right about the devaluation.



Sorry if i'm being rude but you just don't get simple economic logic... What you're sugggesting is very different from the money multiplier effect. A loan that has no interest is not a loan, but a donation. You do realize what a ridiculous suggestion is that states should cover their budget deficits by donating money to themselves?

There is no point in using a currency to measure value if that currency is not scarce.


Denying banks the opportunity to reinvest the funds that they hold would sevely reduce the gdp and thus, the personal wealth of everyone.
That´s the point right there. Let´s say a family wanted to buy a flat and instead of getting a loan from their bank they would just "create" that money like a rabbit form the hat and just buy the flat? Nice idea, but utterly ridicilous. Mjau, how do you think the flat prices would develop if this was possible..? Countries are not that different, there are basic economic laws that cannot be ignored. You cannot create money to pay off your debts.
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Old 10-09-2011, 10:32 PM   #224
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

creating money is exactly what the fed does... and it does affect europe when the fed is used to give the ECB enough economic clout to intimidate sovereign nations into self inflicted economic self abuse... nations slitting their own wrists in the bathtub... bleeding themselves... then we must of course add the money borrowed by the US government to recapitalise 'to big to fail' US banks that then filters across the pond through commercial banks...

anyone looking for an education about the shady origin of the federal reserve here's a lecture that i have only recently become aware of... europeans should ask themselves the question while listening to it: who does europe use as it's financial benchmark...? please ponder who europe uses for measurement and worth and what affect that might have... and also, of particular interest, europe's involvement in the conception of the federal reserve...

great storytelling... enjoy...
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Old 10-10-2011, 07:41 PM   #225
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Default Re: Credit crisis in Greece, others to follow...?

There's a big difference in "creating money" by reinvesting... Creating money is a poor term in that context. Creating money by printing it, now there the term create is more apt.
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lol, who will beat him? Wawrinka? Berdych? Gulbis? Rosol? Federer?

Only Del Potro can take him out before the semis, and he won't. Nadal is winning the AO, bet your house on it.
Somewhere out there, there is a homeless person who once took betting advice from GSMnadal
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