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Old 04-12-2010, 10:56 AM   #1
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Default AFL Rd 4

A debacle of betting round last week. Shocking. Time to bounce back.

Taken these early:

Sydney -10.5 vs Nth Melbourne
Adelaide to beat Carlton- $1.90
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Old 04-12-2010, 11:44 AM   #2
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolelli Ultra View Post
A debacle of betting round last week. Shocking. Time to bounce back.

Taken these early:

Sydney -10.5 vs Nth Melbourne
Adelaide to beat Carlton- $1.90
I agree with Sydney, safest bet of the round apart from Geelong & Melbourne, but why would you take Adelaide over Carlton, even at AAMI with their poor form and new injuries i cant see it.
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Old 04-12-2010, 11:47 AM   #3
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolelli Ultra View Post
A debacle of betting round last week. Shocking. Time to bounce back.

Taken these early:

Sydney -10.5 vs Nth Melbourne
Adelaide to beat Carlton- $1.90
My early picks are,
Ess tb WCE
Syd to Kangas (NM)
Bris tb WBDogs
Coll tb Hawks
@ $12.45
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Old 04-12-2010, 11:50 AM   #4
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolelli Ultra View Post
A debacle of betting round last week. Shocking. Time to bounce back.
I got 5/8 in Rd 3 (picked Melb & Freo) am 17/24 for the year.
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Old 04-12-2010, 09:29 PM   #5
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Dogs are a nice price against an overrated Brisbane.

Face facts:

1. Brisbane struggled against West Coast - a bottom 4 side this year and outsiders for the spoon.
2. Brisbane struggled against Carlton - a team which won't make the finals.
3. Brisbane beat Port comprehensively - a team which may make the finals.

Against Carlton and West Coast, Brisbane had lapses. If they have a lapse against the Dogs, the Dogs can put on about 8 goals in 10 minutes on Brisbane. Only a full four quarter effort will do it.

Down a ruckman, leaving a guy who has been injured the last few years to go solo against Minson and Hudson is going to be tough.
Down a key backman, who runs hard out of defence, will be tough but they have the players to replace him, but still, McGrath will be a big loss.
Throw in the fact Black might not be playing and that's three massive outs.

Irrespective of whether these guys were playing, we still wouldn't beat the Dogs. We are not in their class yet. Maybe at the end of the year when the team starts to Gel a bit more, but if we stay within 4 goals of the Dogs, I will be pleased.

I'm taking the $1.85 on the Dogs now and running with my money. The Dogs will be $1.60 by game time.
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Old 04-13-2010, 08:53 AM   #6
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Dogs are a nice price against an overrated Brisbane.

Face facts:

1. Brisbane struggled against West Coast - a bottom 4 side this year and outsiders for the spoon.
2. Brisbane struggled against Carlton - a team which won't make the finals.
3. Brisbane beat Port comprehensively - a team which may make the finals.

Against Carlton and West Coast, Brisbane had lapses. If they have a lapse against the Dogs, the Dogs can put on about 8 goals in 10 minutes on Brisbane. Only a full four quarter effort will do it.

Down a ruckman, leaving a guy who has been injured the last few years to go solo against Minson and Hudson is going to be tough.
Down a key backman, who runs hard out of defence, will be tough but they have the players to replace him, but still, McGrath will be a big loss.
Throw in the fact Black might not be playing and that's three massive outs.

Irrespective of whether these guys were playing, we still wouldn't beat the Dogs. We are not in their class yet. Maybe at the end of the year when the team starts to Gel a bit more, but if we stay within 4 goals of the Dogs, I will be pleased.

I'm taking the $1.85 on the Dogs now and running with my money. The Dogs will be $1.60 by game time.
I agree Bris have beaten nobody yet and just beaten them as well and at home FFS, not impressive.
But at home with their 2 man team I just think they will get up. WBDogs have had some big big games already and will be hurting after the Hawks game. I reckon they will just bomb it in all night and hope Brown & Fev kick enough to will.
Ppl may get a false impression if they win that they are better than what thy really are. I dont think Bris have had a tough game yet, this might be there 1st if the WBDogs are up to it.
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Old 04-14-2010, 10:16 AM   #7
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

I jumped on the dogs when i saw the price at 1.95

If Black is an out odds will plummet. Also dogs have a really good record against the Lions:

2009 SF MCG Western Bulldogs (107) Brisbane Lions (56)
2009 20 Gabba Western Bulldogs (102) Brisbane Lions (84)
2008 20 Gabba Brisbane Lions (90) Western Bulldogs (79)
2008 12 MCG Western Bulldogs (131) Brisbane Lions (68)
2007 11 Gabba Western Bulldogs (95) Brisbane Lions (72)
2006 12 Gabba Western Bulldogs (145) Brisbane Lions (103)
2005 18 Telstra Dome Western Bulldogs (151) Brisbane Lions (123)
2005 7 Gabba Western Bulldogs (110) Brisbane Lions (87)
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Old 04-14-2010, 10:38 AM   #8
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

It's too early for Brisbane to beat sides like this. Later in the year, yes. Not now whilst the team is still in it's honeymoon process.
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Old 04-15-2010, 02:07 AM   #9
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

A lot rests on Fev's shoulders, as you'd expect Lake will go to Brown and do a fairly good job on him.

I reckon the Bulldogs will get up but not so confident just yet. Will wait til the teams come out.

Interesting to see all the money for Carlton...they are favourites now. I know Adelaide have a lot of injuries but if anyone saw Carlton play last weekend you would never understand how they could be faves. I got Adelaide at 1.90, they are now 1.95, i reckon wait till saturday and you will get around $2.00 then jump all over that.
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Old 04-15-2010, 02:19 AM   #10
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Judd is back for Carlton and Adelaide will be fielding mostly reserves, that's enough for me to back Carlton. The Crows showed nothing against the Swans two weeks ago at home, expecting more of the same this time.

Carlton - $1.86
Bulldogs - $1.85
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Old 04-15-2010, 02:51 AM   #11
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

I reckon this round is going to be a bloody hard round to bet on.
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Old 04-15-2010, 11:38 AM   #12
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

My Rnd 4 picks...

Fri 16 Apr - Round 4

West Coast v Essendon

Sat 17 Apr - Round 4

North Melbourne v Sydney
Adelaide v Carlton
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
Collingwood v Hawthorn

Sun 18 Apr - Round 4

Richmond v Melbourne
Geelong v Port Adelaide
St Kilda v Fremantle

Taking Sydney @ Melbourne @ $2.00
GL.
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Old 04-16-2010, 07:46 AM   #13
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Melb/Melb @ 1.80 - Big bet. Richmond's side is VFL quality.

Dogs - 2.5 @ 1.91

SYD/SYD/SYD/SYD * WBU/WBU/WBU/WBU * MEL/MEL/MEL/MEL @ 16.62
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Old 04-16-2010, 07:58 AM   #14
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Essendon @ $2.45
Essendon +10.5 @ $1.91

Sydney @ $1.52
Adelaide @ $1.82
Bulldogs @ $1.95 - earlier in the week as mentioned above
Collingwood @ $1.62
Richmond +21.5 @ $1.91
Richmond @ $3.60

Good luck
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Old 04-16-2010, 12:10 PM   #15
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Default Re: AFL Rd 4

Essendon v West Coast - Over 201.5 @ $1.85 - Total 109 at half time.

Good luck
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