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Old 04-05-2010, 05:12 AM   #1
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Default AFL Rd 3

This weeks games... Odds yet to be released but BOLD teams are my expected favourite and the line is MY expected line so i can base my bets on these this week.

St Kilda vs Collingwood +/- 10.5

Nth Melbourne vs West Coast Even Match

Melbourne vs Adelaide +/- 15.5

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane +/- 7.5

Sydney vs Richmond +/- 36.5

Carlton vs Essendon +/- 16.5

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn +/- 6.5

Fremantle vs Geelong +/- 14.5
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Old 04-05-2010, 08:21 AM   #2
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

If Sydney v Richmond line is any less than 50 points, I'm lumping on!

Also expect the Dogs to comfortably take care of the Hawks, 1 extra day of rest + they were never out of second gear against Richmond yesterday.

Other than that, the rest are coin toss, IMO.
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Old 04-06-2010, 03:49 AM   #3
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Lines are out. Cats 1.60 against Dockers???
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Old 04-06-2010, 04:51 AM   #4
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

I'll provide write ups later in the week but Ive jumped all over these two so far:

Port -1.5 vs Brisbane
Carlton -12.5 vs Essendon
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Old 04-06-2010, 04:52 AM   #5
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

My expected lines in all other matches were pretty close so I dont like much else so far, but might change my mind
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Old 04-06-2010, 06:33 AM   #6
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Sydney -40.5 (big bet)

The swans will cover this by half time and will run away to win by double that. Goodes & co will have run riot in front of home crowd.
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Old 04-08-2010, 08:00 AM   #7
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

AFL Season Record: 3-2
Best Bet: 0-0

Round 3 picks:

Carlton -12.5 vs Essendon (Best Bet)

I have backed Carlton at the line in both Round 1 and 2 and this has been successful. I see this as the best bet of the week and the season so far. Carlton make the one change with Anderson making way for No. 12 draft pick Kane Lucas. Essendon make 6 changes to the side with Melksham, Colyer, Lonergan, Lovett-Murray, Reimers & Houli all coming in to the side and Monfries (Quad), McVeigh (Virus), Howlett, Prismall, Davey & Myers (All Omitted) making way. Essendon have one the past 5 vs Carlton and have scored an average of 131 points in these 5 games. Traditionally though Carlton have been destroyed by Essendons small quick players as well as Lloyd and Lucas who have had a feast on Carlton in the past. This time its different. No Lloyd, Lucas, Lovett and this week no Prismall, Monfries, McVeigh and Davey. Essendon will struggle to run Carlton off their feet as they have done in the past. Carlton are a much more mature, stronger outfit than in previous years and will learn from their past mistakes vs Essendon and slow the momentum of the game when or if Essendon begin to get a run on. Im not worried about the loss of Bower as Essendon certainly dont have a Brown and Fevola down in their foward line and i think this battle will be won and lost in the midfield. Carlton have a FAR superior midfield to that of Essendons and if Carlton can kick accurately this week it could be a blowout. Carlton probably should have beaten the Lions last week if not for some innacurate kicking at goal. This is a massive rivalry and that will make the intensity high and the match tough and close to begin with, but there is only so far that can take Essendon and in the even class will prevail. Game total backers beware, this will not be a high scoring game as it has been in the past. Carlton by 32 points.

Port Adelaide -1.5 vs Brisbane

Port have been the suprise packets of the season so far with a comfortable win over Nth Melbourne in rd 1 and they got the job done with a tough win against the Eagles away last week. In the past these two have fought fairly close contests and the line here reflects that but Fevola has not enjoyed AAMI Stadium in the last few seasons with Carlton and may struggle. I dont think Jonathan Brown will be enough here and I think Port will come home strongly to win a close one.

West Coast +2.5 vs Nth Melbourne
I base this bet on two main factors. How woeful Nth Melbourne were vs St Kilda last week and the return of Mark LeCras and Hansen, two xfactors who can change a game on their day. West Coast have more talent all over the field and should be able to knock off a young, inexperienced Nth Melbourne side for their first win of the year. I expect Dean Cox to be back to his best and for Naitinui to continue his impressive early season form. The main reason the eagles lost last week is because they didnt have a noted target down foward but that all changes this week with the return of lecras. Eagles by 12 points.

Adelaide -14.5 vs Melbourne
The return of Chris Knights is a big plus for the Crows and adds another attacking dimension. I think last weeks effort vs Sydney was somewhat of an aberration and we will not see the same pathetic effort from an Adelaide side who were expected to finish top 4 this year. The gulf in class between the two teams is astounding and i think this line is really generous and is based too much on the impressive performance of Melbourne last week. They cannout back that up two weeks in a row and even if they do i feel as though this Adelaide side will prove stiffer opposition than the Magpies and they need to make a statement this week more than any other club. This could be a giant letdown for Melbourne. Crows by 38 points.

May add more over the weekend.

gl
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Old 04-08-2010, 10:03 AM   #8
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Also a very very very small bet on West Coast Highest scoring team @ $23.00
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Old 04-09-2010, 05:01 AM   #9
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

My rnd 3 picks.....

St Kilda vs Collingwood

Nth Melbourne vs West Coast

Melbourne vs Adelaide

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane

Sydney vs Richmond

Carlton vs Essendon

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn

Fremantle vs Geelong

Last weeks results 5/8 & YTD 12/16. GL.
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Old 04-10-2010, 02:35 AM   #10
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Bris-Port total game score over 171.5 @ 1.90 - Rain radar shows clear skies albeit with windy conditions expected. Last 5 encounters between these 2 sides have been high scoring... all 200+. This should go over.

North-West Coast total game score under 185.5 @ 1.90 - Low scoring side are North... 15 of last 17 matches under 185.5... Petrie's absence is a huge blow.

West Coast @ 1.95
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Old 04-10-2010, 02:55 AM   #11
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Eagles to beat Roos - $2.00
Power to beat Lions - $1.91

gl

Last edited by bad gambler : 04-10-2010 at 05:06 AM.
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Old 04-10-2010, 02:49 PM   #12
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by $@M View Post
Sydney -40.5 (big bet)

The swans will cover this by half time and will run away to win by double that. Goodes & co will have run riot in front of home crowd.
$ydney!!!
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Old 04-11-2010, 12:33 AM   #13
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Melbourne lowest scoring team today @ 2.75
Melb-Adel total game score under 167.5 @ 1.90
Melb-Adel total game score under 150.5 @ 3.25
FRE/FRE/FRE/FRE @ 4.50
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Old 04-11-2010, 06:35 AM   #14
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Cats to cover -4.5 v Dockers

gl
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Old 04-11-2010, 10:00 AM   #15
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Default Re: AFL Rd 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Eagles to beat Roos - $2.00
Power to beat Lions - $1.91
Cats to cover -4.5 v Dockers

gl
lost x 3
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