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Old 05-13-2010, 03:09 PM   #46
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

A winning day? Who would have thought!

Ale, when they struggled to bring back a minute between 22km and 12km to go, that's when I jumped on Pineau. He was the more accomplished out of the three riders. Naturally, I thought they were gone with 2km to go, but those streets again proved tough for a sprint finish.
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Old 05-13-2010, 03:15 PM   #47
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

Bad luck Ale,

A break will get it tomorrow if you look at the parcours.

Look out for guys like Cunego, Possoni, Voeckler, Pozzato etc.

Wait for in-play betting unless some of those riders attrack decent odds.

The next two days are perfect for guys who want to get cheap KOM points.
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Old 05-13-2010, 03:15 PM   #48
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

At that point (between 22km and 12km remaining) i thought it's 60/40 for a sprint. But in the end it looked like they are going to catch them. It wasn't just the corners. They started to play games, going left and right.
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Old 05-13-2010, 03:19 PM   #49
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

Yeah. Monday and Tuesday can be sprint finishes if the peloton wants them. After today, I'm not sure that they do.
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Old 05-13-2010, 03:23 PM   #50
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

The next 2 days i won't make a bet, more than likely.
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Old 05-13-2010, 03:26 PM   #51
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

In-play is the way to go on the next two days.

As I say, if there are two riders 81 or more that could try a break, I will be putting 5 or 10 bucks on them.

Pozzato liked the look of Saturday's stage so if I backed anyone, unless someone came out and said they were targeting this, I would back him providing he's at reasonable odds.

Other than that, In-Play is where I'm turning my attention to until Sunday.
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Old 05-13-2010, 05:05 PM   #52
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Anyway added another future.

3.5 units Mollema for the white jersey @ $5

Rider Name (Country) Team Result
1 Valerio Agnoli (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 10:44:20
2 Matthew Goss (Aus) Team HTC - Columbia 0:00:06
3 Richie Porte (Aus) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:25
4 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Liquigas-Doimo 0:01:04
5 Michael Morkov (Den) Team Saxo Bank 0:01:21
6 Tom Stamsnijder (Ned) Rabobank 0:01:25
7 Jos Van Emden (Ned) Rabobank 0:01:29
8 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Rabobank 0:02:20
9 Jackson Rodriguez (Ven) Androni Giocattoli 0:06:59
10 Adam Blythe (GBr) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:07:45
11 Sacha Modolo (Ita) Colnago-CSF Inox 0:07:52
12 Ignatas Konovalovas (Ltu) Cervelo Test Team 0:08:56
13 Marcel Wyss (Swi) Cervelo Test Team 0:08:58
14 Craig Lewis (USA) Team HTC - Columbia
15 Jan Bakelandts (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:09:13
16 Fabio Sabatini (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo 0:09:14
17 Roman Kireyev (Kaz) Astana 0:09:17
18 Francis De Greef (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:09:27
19 Daniel Martin (Irl) Garmin - Transitions 0:09:31
20 Dominik Roels (Ger) Team Milram 0:09:39
21 Mikhail Ignatiev (Rus) Team Katusha 0:09:41
22 Danilo Wyss (Swi) BMC Racing Team 0:09:48
23 Matthias Brandle (Aut) Footon-Servetto 0:10:22
24 Dario Cataldo (Ita) Quick Step 0:10:32
25 Julien Fouchard (Fra) Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne 0:10:44
26 Simone Stortoni (Ita) Colnago-CSF Inox 0:10:59
27 Remi Cusin (Fra) Cofidis, le Credit en Ligne 0:11:03
28 Branislau Samoilau (Blr) Quick Step 0:11:05
29 Manuel Belletti (Ita) Colnago-CSF Inox 0:11:10
30 Eros Capecchi (Ita) Footon-Servetto
31 Andrei Amador Bikkazakova (CRc) Caisse d'Epargne
32 Guillaume Bonnafond (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:11:18
33 Alessandro Bisolti (Ita) Colnago-CSF Inox 0:11:22
34 Francesco Masciarelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone 0:11:34

The guys in bold are the guys that will contest it.

Rabobank have high hopes on Mollema. Yes, Masciarelli is a good choice for Acqua & Sapone but he will now be supporting Garzelli. Plus Mollema has sold me winning Circuito Montanes a few years back. This is a good race to get noticed in because of the difficult climbing. Previous winners of that race include Gesink and Van Garderen.

The other guys won't keep up with these guys in the mountains and Porte will struggle in the third week.
Don't rule out Jackson Rodriguez. Porte has also said he will go for the white jersey. But (as Mollema, who was out with mono last year) he is a completely unknown quantity in a three week Grand Tour. I expect both not to fade away too much. Kiserlovski would have had a shot too if he wasn't riding for Liquigas I guess.
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Old 05-13-2010, 05:09 PM   #53
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

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For the white jersey i have Masciarelli @3.75 and De Greef @81

They were great last year at the Giro, finishing 16th and 20. Masciarelli had Garzelli last year too. I think he will be kinda free and other guys will be working for Garzelli, Miholjevic or the other Masciarelli for example. And we all think Garzelli will be in the running for KOM which means he will have to attack a lot and get in escapes if possible. He won't need help for that.
Last year Garzelli wasn't in contention for the overall (podium). He will not target the mountains jersey this year as long as he has his chances in the GC.

De Greef targets a stage victory this year as his team prefers that above another anonymous 20th in the GC. Pre-race the @81 might have been worth it, but he is already some way behind now...
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Old 05-13-2010, 10:47 PM   #54
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

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Originally Posted by wimderon View Post
Last year Garzelli wasn't in contention for the overall (podium). He will not target the mountains jersey this year as long as he has his chances in the GC.

De Greef targets a stage victory this year as his team prefers that above another anonymous 20th in the GC. Pre-race the @81 might have been worth it, but he is already some way behind now...
Garzelli can target the podium if he want to but he has no shot for that. He won't beat the likes of Sastre, Evans or Basso.
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Old 05-14-2010, 01:15 AM   #55
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wimderon View Post
Don't rule out Jackson Rodriguez. Porte has also said he will go for the white jersey. But (as Mollema, who was out with mono last year) he is a completely unknown quantity in a three week Grand Tour. I expect both not to fade away too much. Kiserlovski would have had a shot too if he wasn't riding for Liquigas I guess.
Yep. I know Porte has said he's going for the white jersey but I have been speaking to him. Trust me, he will fade off in that last week. It wasn't long ago he was finishing near last in every race, including Paris-Nice. He's hit some good form at the moment but the third week of a taxing grand tour may prove to be too much for him and he's already starting to feel it and we're in the first week.

Rodriguez - good point.

I originally thought Capecchi would take the white jersey and I'm not writing the guy off from a high GC standing yet, though I suspect he'll have to get lucky in a break to get some time back.
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Old 05-14-2010, 02:52 AM   #56
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

3.5 units Vino over Efimkin @ $1.50
2 units De Greef over Bonnafond @ $1.68
2 units Meyer over Bobridge @ $1.76

.6 units Voeckler @ $40
.4 units Ignatiev @ $30

Possoni, Bertolini, Cunego (although tomorrow suits him better) could all try to get in the break today. Bbox will send someone and this stage is suitable for Voeckler.
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Old 05-14-2010, 03:35 AM   #57
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

The peloton won't allow Cunego to get in a break imo. Not yet.
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Old 05-14-2010, 09:45 AM   #58
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

I'm gonna give it one more shot...

Sacha Modolo - Leonardo Duque 2 @1.54 (bet365)
Alexander Efimkin - Andriy Grivko 1 @1,85 (bet24)
Damiano Cunego - Filippo Pozzato 2 @1.95 (sportingbet)

Pozzato to win @15 (blue square)
Duque to finish in top3 @15 (sportingbet) (HUGE VALUE ALERT)
Cataldo to win @151 (will hill)
Capecchi to win @67 (will hill)


Pozzato and Duque are my main guys today, i think this stage is basically made for them. They are already far back in the GC so they can get into a break easily. If not they still can win the bunch finish arriving with a group without the top sprinters. Cataldo and Capecchi could be very well in the break, they are both far back in the GC but they can both climb a little bit. (Enough for the hills today.) I don't think Modolo can hang with the main group, he had troubles yesterday on the flat when they went all out. Efimkin will want to be at the front of the peloton when they arrive, Grivo will just watch Vino all day then lay back at the end. I tihnk the peloton won't allow Cunego to get in a break so that's advantage Pozzato. I also think the finish (downhill + flat) suits Pozzato more if they arrive together.

My other guys would be Gasparotto and Albasini but i didn't like their odds. (It means one of them will probably win.)
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Old 05-14-2010, 10:37 AM   #59
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

The finish is uphill a bit.

I agree with Pozzato but I'll wait till he gets in a break. If I get crap odds, so be it.

Good luck!
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Old 05-14-2010, 10:38 AM   #60
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Default Re: Bolar's 2010 Cycling Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ale10 View Post
Garzelli can target the podium if he want to but he has no shot for that. He won't beat the likes of Sastre, Evans or Basso.
Basso doesn't care about the Giro. He and his team have come out in January and even last year saying Basso's main aim is the TDF. He was initally riding the Giro in support for Pellizotti as Pellizotti could win it. Nibali is their go to man. Basso won't make top 5.
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