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Old 03-29-2010, 07:36 PM   #91
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Just to chime in here, Murray is only planning on playing Rome and Madrid before Roland Garros, so his possible maximum is only 8935 after Queens/Halle. Even taking a wild card to Monte Carlo and winning it would leave him short of 10000, whereas all the other three main contenders can reach at least 10000 (Djokovic over 11000).

So whilst Murray is a threat, he's now the weakest one imo.
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Old 03-30-2010, 07:28 AM   #92
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

This is the only reason I hope Federer does well in events (away from slam) as well. This will be another monumental record for his legacy.
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Old 03-30-2010, 10:24 AM   #93
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Can you imagine how Roger will approach non-slam events after he breaks the 286 weeks record? I foresee a ton of early exits after the record is broken, I'm afraid.
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Old 03-30-2010, 01:00 PM   #94
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

How exactly will that be different from his current results since Shanghai of: no show, got to the final but was shamefully bad, lost 2nd round, SF, no show, lost 3rd round ?
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Old 03-30-2010, 01:05 PM   #95
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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How exactly will that be different from his current results since Shanghai of: no show, got to the final but was shamefully bad, lost 2nd round, SF, no show, lost 3rd round ?
Erm...exactly. It is very bad already even though I'm sure he's motivated just to beat the Sampras record. When the Sampras record is gone there's really very little incentive for Roger to do well outside of slams. I do kind of fear his downfall if he doesn't find some motivation from somewhere.
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Old 03-30-2010, 03:15 PM   #96
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Erm...exactly. It is very bad already even though I'm sure he's motivated just to beat the Sampras record. When the Sampras record is gone there's really very little incentive for Roger to do well outside of slams. I do kind of fear his downfall if he doesn't find some motivation from somewhere.
he said in the beginning of the year that he wants to finish the year as number 1 :

- to equal that other Sampras's record : number of years finishing number 1 (6)

- because he just likes to be number 1 in front of these youngsters

I thought in the beginning of the year that 2010 would be his last really great year, so far I've not changed my mind.

But actually I think that what might change perspective in the coming months would be a huge Nadal coming back : he could make the number 1 very hard to approach.

Like every year, we will know better after Wimbledon

But anyway, whether or not he's number 1 or other, things depend on Fed's extra-life (it has obviously changed since last year ) and also on his desire.

For instance, I had the impression that he was "hungry of tennis" in Indian Wells although Baggy beat him, whereas in Miami, he doesn't look like a player with a lot of desire

I think that even when he's not number 1 anymore, he may have some moments when he's "hungrier" and moments when he's less.

It often happens with old players actually, even when they're not called Federer
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Old 03-30-2010, 03:24 PM   #97
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

duong: I agree that Nadal will be the most crucial factor to #1. Wimbledon might just be the turning point because if Federer doesn't defend his Wimbledon crown, it is almost definite that Nadal would overtake him even without a win (obviously depending on RG, clay etc.)
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Old 03-30-2010, 03:31 PM   #98
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

GOD Please Bless Roger play his best tennis in next Rd!!!!

ALLEZZZZZZZZZZZ Roger!!!!!!!
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Old 03-30-2010, 04:32 PM   #99
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I've long said that Nadal has a structural advantage in the race for #1 amongst the top players. This is because while the clay season is (too) short, he has the ability to totally clean up on clay. On hard courts all the top players (and others) will have to share the points. The way I see it - if Nadal dominates clay and just does as he usually does outside of clay - then he's #1. Infact he would have been #1 in 2005, 2006 and 2007 if it hadn't been for Federer turning in superhuman efforts. Neither Federer these days, nor anyone else can pull in that kind of effort this year.

So my theory is this: If Nadal can put in his "typical" season, like in 2006 or 2007, then he'll be #1.
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Old 03-30-2010, 05:53 PM   #100
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Depends. If Roger can pick up 1000 points here, he'll be at 8200, and Nadal won't be able to catch him until Wimbly.
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Old 03-30-2010, 07:29 PM   #101
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by BlueSwan View Post
I've long said that Nadal has a structural advantage in the race for #1 amongst the top players. This is because while the clay season is (too) short, he has the ability to totally clean up on clay. On hard courts all the top players (and others) will have to share the points. The way I see it - if Nadal dominates clay and just does as he usually does outside of clay - then he's #1. Infact he would have been #1 in 2005, 2006 and 2007 if it hadn't been for Federer turning in superhuman efforts. Neither Federer these days, nor anyone else can pull in that kind of effort this year.

So my theory is this: If Nadal can put in his "typical" season, like in 2006 or 2007, then he'll be #1.
Exactly, and well explained.
And that's also exactly why I am not buying any 'Roger doesn't care about tournaments outside GS anymore'-excuse. Roger knows what you've just explained above himself all too well, and realizes that he MUST do well/reasonable in at least a couple of MS/500/250 tournaments to indeed be able to overtake Pete's record.
Of course we'll still have to wait and see whether Nadal will indeed be able to repeat his awesome clay runs of the past couple of years, but unless he gets injured again, I expect he will.
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Old 03-30-2010, 07:33 PM   #102
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat View Post
Exactly, and well explained.
And that's also exactly why I am not buying any 'Roger doesn't care about tournaments outside GS anymore'-excuse. Roger knows what you've just explained above himself all too well, and realizes that he MUST do well/reasonable in at least a couple of MS/500/250 tournaments to indeed be able to overtake Pete's record.
Not quite. I don't think that there's any realistic way that the Sampras record isn't going down. What I was talking about was the inevitability of Nadal finishing the year as #1 if he plays like in 2005-2008 - not of Nadal overtaking #1 before Wimbledon. Nadal might very well topple Federer right after Wimbledon, but not before.
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Old 03-30-2010, 07:35 PM   #103
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Depends. If Roger can pick up 1000 points here, he'll be at 8200, and Nadal won't be able to catch him until Wimbly.
I've got no real worries that Roger isn't beating the Sampras record. I went on record right after the AO stating that Federer would definitely beat the record. This thread is enjoyable, I love the speculation and the calculations, but really, Federer has got this record in the bag barring absolutely freakish results.
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Old 03-31-2010, 12:34 AM   #104
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I've got no real worries that Roger isn't beating the Sampras record. I went on record right after the AO stating that Federer would definitely beat the record. This thread is enjoyable, I love the speculation and the calculations, but really, Federer has got this record in the bag barring absolutely freakish results.
the questions is...will fed beat the record or annhilate it?

im not actually that worried about fed's motivation. his patchy play is expected given the fact he was sick and that this is still his second tournie back.

once fed reaches beast mode and i think he will at some point in this season...it wont matter whether the tournament is a grand slam or a masters series.

every loss also seems to fire roger up that much more.
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Old 03-31-2010, 06:17 AM   #105
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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the questions is...will fed beat the record or annhilate it?

im not actually that worried about fed's motivation. his patchy play is expected given the fact he was sick and that this is still his second tournie back.

once fed reaches beast mode and i think he will at some point in this season...it wont matter whether the tournament is a grand slam or a masters series.

every loss also seems to fire roger up that much more.
yeah i'm worried that he'll just beat the record only.... with another early ATP1000 exit... the danger is if the beast nadal is back he may well retake the #1 after wimbledon...


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