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Old 06-01-2010, 07:25 PM   #331
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Massimoexp View Post
Can soderling be the champion of Roland garros 2010 ??
If he plays like today then nobody has much of a chance, including Nadal. However, today was special, he's not going to just produce performances like that at will. Therefore Nadal is still easily the favourite to win. However, Nadal will feel much worse about his chances if he watched today's match.
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Old 06-01-2010, 07:30 PM   #332
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

So, so close... however it's not a consecutive record so he still has chances to take it, even now if Nadal doesn't win, though he probably will. I thought I'd feel more upset about this loss but Soderling was just unplayable out there. Not the end of the world really. Funny thing is that it came down to a few points, what with those match points at IW/Miami, and I would have favored him to gut it out today if he'd taken the set point in the third. Ah well
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Old 06-01-2010, 07:30 PM   #333
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

On a more positive note: I have been obsessing about this record since the terrible IW/Miami results when it suddenly became apparent that the record wasn't in the bag at all. It feels terrible to give up on it now...

However, looking back to last spring, back then I didn't think Roger would ever get back to #1. I didn't think he'd ever win RG and I was starting to doubt whether he'd actually beat the GS record. He managed all of that. Clearly Roger should never be written off.

Win Wimbledon now Roger!
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Old 06-01-2010, 07:35 PM   #334
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

If Nadal doesn't win the title, Federer is guaranteed to get to 289 weeks, until after Wimbledon.

When Federer lost the US Open final last year I already considered it unfortunate that he would need to hold #1 even after RG to tie Sampras' record. The timing is just bad.

But to be honest, when he lost #1 in 2008 I didn't really expect him to get it back, ever, but he did. This time it will be even harder. If he loses the Wimbledon title he's in trouble. Nadal is just too consistent in the smaller events. And the smaller events (masters) count for a lot.
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Old 06-01-2010, 07:42 PM   #335
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Never say never. He'll have a lot of points to gain next year after the Australian Open and before the grass season. That said, he'll still have an AO title to defend, players like Del Potro and Davydenko should be fit to give him some trouble and of course - injuries excepting - an incredibly consistent Nadal to have to contend with. The fact that Murray, Djokovic and Soderling underperformed in the post-AO hardcourt swing and the early clay season aren't going to do him any favours for next year either.

Still if anything if he does miss out on the record by one week, it may just act as motivation to play better (especially in the Masters tournaments) to recapture the top spot.
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Old 06-01-2010, 09:15 PM   #336
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

True anything can happen and it's not like the record was for consecutive weeks at #1 or anything so even if/when Rafa does win RG & takes #1 he'd only be what 1 week? 2 weeks? off breaking the record so that's do-able given the right circumstances/performances down the line.
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Old 06-01-2010, 09:43 PM   #337
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Pete Sampras' last four appearances at #1 lasted an average of 6 weeks each. So a week here or there for Federer is always possible, especially if my now-second-favorite players, Soderling and Djokevic are still in line to play Nadal at RG.
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Old 06-01-2010, 10:53 PM   #338
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Ububub View Post
Pete Sampras' last four appearances at #1 lasted an average of 6 weeks each. So a week here or there for Federer is always possible, especially if my now-second-favorite players, Soderling and Djokevic are still in line to play Nadal at RG.
Sampras' prime opponents were not as consistent as Federer's from a rankings perspective.
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Old 06-01-2010, 11:17 PM   #339
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

sigh... i guess the title of this thread is apt... now we can only hope that nadal screws up the chance of overtaking by not winning the title... either way the thread can probably die off finally....


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Old 06-02-2010, 01:51 AM   #340
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

He'll still probably break the record. Maybe not this year, but eventually.
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Old 06-02-2010, 03:06 AM   #341
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Sampras' prime opponents were not as consistent as Federer's from a rankings perspective.
Exactly. Nadal carries 5000 points with him from clay alone so to be number 1, other players have to be really, really good on hard, do well on clay, and do well on grass. In fact, the only way Federer stayed at number one for so on was because of how extraordinarily well he did in tournament after tournament.
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Old 06-02-2010, 05:45 AM   #342
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

The bad thing is ; even if Roger wins wimbledon 2010 ; it means nothing.....Because nadal has a lot of points to gain from wimbledon....
Soderling or djokovic should beat nadal in roland garros. Otherwise roger can not break the record....
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Old 06-02-2010, 07:27 AM   #343
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Exactly. Nadal carries 5000 points with him from clay alone so to be number 1, other players have to be really, really good on hard, do well on clay, and do well on grass. In fact, the only way Federer stayed at number one for so on was because of how extraordinarily well he did in tournament after tournament.
Yup! This is the point I've always been making. As long as Nadal dominates clay he's always going to be the likely #1, given that all he really needs to add is SOLID performances outside of clay - he doesn't even need to win any titles outside of clay. Unless someone puts in JesusFed performances in general, which is never likely.

Realistically, Federer is not regaining #1 if Nadal wins RG. Infact, if Nadal had not sustained that injury last year, Nadal would have probably been on a 100 week run at #1 right as we speak.

Federer isn't getting any younger. The best we can hope for is more Grand Slam wins, which is pretty good in itself. The days at #1 are numbered unless Nadal doesn't win RG and then is booted early from Wimbledon while Federer retains his title.
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Old 06-02-2010, 08:52 AM   #344
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Yup! This is the point I've always been making. As long as Nadal dominates clay he's always going to be the likely #1, given that all he really needs to add is SOLID performances outside of clay - he doesn't even need to win any titles outside of clay. Unless someone puts in JesusFed performances in general, which is never likely.

Realistically, Federer is not regaining #1 if Nadal wins RG. Infact, if Nadal had not sustained that injury last year, Nadal would have probably been on a 100 week run at #1 right as we speak.

Federer isn't getting any younger. The best we can hope for is more Grand Slam wins, which is pretty good in itself. The days at #1 are numbered unless Nadal doesn't win RG and then is booted early from Wimbledon while Federer retains his title.
actually i am more optimistic that federer can regain #1 again some time in future (maybe even take year end #1) unless he retires early (and not play until 35 as he had said) ... previously when he first lost #1 to nadal... nadal then was looking pretty much infallible... and he does well outside clay courts too... i had then thought federer will never get back to #1...

but later we see that nadal's achilles heels (pun not intended) is that he is getting more prone to injuries... so he is not so invincible afterall. that will be good chances of federer getting back #1. the year end #1 will be determined by whether federer can have a better grass/hard court than nadal's clay season... and/or whether nadal's grass/hard court is better than federer's clay season. the nadal of today just feels more vulnerable compared to nadal 2008...


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Old 06-02-2010, 12:43 PM   #345
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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The bad thing is ; even if Roger wins wimbledon 2010 ; it means nothing.....Because nadal has a lot of points to gain from wimbledon....
It doesn't mean nothing I think I'd take another slam title over another week at #1 any day! It might not immediately put him back at the top but it would make it easier for him to return there in the future.
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