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Old 05-25-2010, 07:03 AM   #316
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Sorry, I think it's bad taste to enjoy any of Roger's opponents to be forced to withdraw/lose from a tournament due to an injury.
Agreed.

It's all up to Roger now. No one else matters. He plays well at the French, the record is his.

The amazing thing is that this year, for the very first time, he's actually ahead of Sampras. Sampras didn't regain number one until September of 2000, he was stuck at 277 weeks, as opposed to Federer's 282. Of course, he already had the record June of 1999, so in that respect the climb wasn't as long for him as it has been for Federer.
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Old 05-30-2010, 08:48 PM   #317
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

I keep reading now from various places on the net (tennis bloggers, websites etc) that Roger only has to win his next match & that's the record sewn up...I thought he had to reach the final at least to actually break it outright & reach the SF "just" to equal it, was I wrong or are these blogs etc mistaken?
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Old 05-30-2010, 09:41 PM   #318
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by fnuf7 View Post
I keep reading now from various places on the net (tennis bloggers, websites etc) that Roger only has to win his next match & that's the record sewn up...I thought he had to reach the final at least to actually break it outright & reach the SF "just" to equal it, was I wrong or are these blogs etc mistaken?
You're right.

Assuming that Rafa will win RG this year (95% chance of that happening), Roger will:
- EQUAL Sampras' record if he reaches the semis;
- BREAK Sampras' record if he reaches the finals.

Of course, he might get a chance later this year if he doesn't reach the semis this year at RG, but those chances are very meagre, if only because there is a possible 4000-points swing at stake in Wimbledon between him and Rafa.
He'd better do it right now.
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Old 05-30-2010, 10:20 PM   #319
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Assuming that Rafa will win RG this year (95% chance of that happening), Roger will:
- EQUAL Sampras' record if he reaches the semis;
- BREAK Sampras' record if he reaches the finals.
Yes, exactly.

Quote:
Of course, he might get a chance later this year if he doesn't reach the semis this year at RG, but those chances are very meagre, if only because there is a possible 4000-points swing at stake in Wimbledon between him and Rafa.
4000 point swing? Only if Roger gets bounced early on at Wimbledon, and Nadal wins it all. What is true is that Rafa doesn't have any points to defend, and would be able to put some up on Federer.

Say if Rafa gets bounced in the Quarters, Federer would make that up by winning Halle.

However, it's also true that Federer isn't defending much on hardcourts either.

If Federer reaches the final here, I don't think Nadal will be able to catch him through to the end of the year.
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Old 05-30-2010, 10:46 PM   #320
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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4000 point swing? Only if Roger gets bounced early on at Wimbledon, and Nadal wins it all. What is true is that Rafa doesn't have any points to defend, and would be able to put some up on Federer.
Like I say so often - 'never say never' in tennis. Sampras was considered to be 'invincible' just the same, until some little upstart named Federer bounced him out. It could just happen again. Of course, a 4000 points-swing is the most extreme thing that could happen, and I don't think it will, but the odds are a lot better for Raf now than they are for Rog come Wimbly.

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Say if Rafa gets bounced in the Quarters, Federer would make that up by winning Halle.
Rafa is playing Queens, and can make exactly the same amount of points over there, as Federer can in Halle.

Quote:
However, it's also true that Federer isn't defending much on hardcourts either.
Rog is defending a final at the USO, and a victory in Cincy. Besides that, Rafa racked up an ultimate ZERO points at the year ending WTF, so again, a chance for him to pick up 1500 over there. I don't think he will, but just saying.

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If Federer reaches the final here, I don't think Nadal will be able to catch him through to the end of the year.
Your positive line of thinking re: Roger is admirable.
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Old 05-30-2010, 11:41 PM   #321
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat View Post
You're right.

Assuming that Rafa will win RG this year (95% chance of that happening), Roger will:
- EQUAL Sampras' record if he reaches the semis;
- BREAK Sampras' record if he reaches the finals.
Absolutely correct and of course in this scenario if he wins his next match before losing in the semis and Nadal wins the tournament then he can still break Sampras' record if Nadal either withdraws or plays poorly at Queen's regardless of how Federer performs at Halle (the difference at the end of the French Open will be 50 points).

Nonetheless I always like to look at what is mathematically guaranteed - which involves considering the worst possible scenario from Federer's perspective and so I just hope that he can reach the final and settle the whole matter within a week. I'm feeling a little uneasy about the Soderling match though as the Swede seems to be in imperious form...as does Berdych who is a possible semi final opponent.
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Old 05-31-2010, 01:29 AM   #322
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by ApproachShot View Post
Nonetheless I always like to look at what is mathematically guaranteed - which involves considering the worst possible scenario from Federer's perspective
agree... mathematically that is what this thread is about...

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Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat View Post
Like I say so often - 'never say never' in tennis.
with that in mind... i'd like to amend this statement to 'never say never unless mathematically guaranteed' ...


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Old 05-31-2010, 06:32 AM   #323
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Roger leads 12-0 against Soderling....

Come on Roger !!!! Please,please,please,please one more time !!!!
For the record Roger , you must win this match !!!!
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Old 05-31-2010, 07:27 AM   #324
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

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Your positive line of thinking re: Roger is admirable
I believed he could win the French two years ago, when just about everyone else had given up.

Then a little toad came along and made it possible!

Who knows, maybe something happens to Nadal along the way again.
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Old 05-31-2010, 12:27 PM   #325
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Now Federer is in the quarters, Djokovic is officially no longer a threat for 286 weeks, but Djokovic can still become #1 after Halle if he wins both RG and Halle, while Federer loses to Soderling at RG and doesn't reach the QF in Halle.
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Old 05-31-2010, 02:01 PM   #326
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

GOD Please Bless Roger play his best tennis tomorrow!!

ALLEZZZZZZZZZZZZ Roger!!
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Old 06-01-2010, 05:55 PM   #327
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Now we have to hope that at least this streak continues: Since Wimbledon 2004 Federer either wins a Slam or loses to the eventual winner.
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Old 06-01-2010, 05:58 PM   #328
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Nadal won't beat Soderling!
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Old 06-01-2010, 06:15 PM   #329
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

I felt so good about Rogers chances after watching JesusFed during the first set against Soderling. Sadly it wasn't to be and I am now trying to deal with the fact that Rogers total weeks at #1 are likely to remain at 285 weeks - just ONE week behind Sampras.

Soderling continuing his form from today for the remaining two matches is the only real hope now.
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Old 06-01-2010, 06:20 PM   #330
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Default Re: The countdown to screwing up the most #1 record thread

Can soderling be the champion of Roland garros 2010 ??
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