[duong]

Originally Posted by wackykid

I have updated the format of the thread a bit, and listed all events and dates for the ATP250 and better events listed on ATP site.

Noted, for Nadal, i think at most it will affect is the amount of points after Rotterdam, but i am assuming he could play Memphis and win, that will replace back Davis Cup points. As for Davydenko, i am assuming BEST CASE so it'll mean that he wins Monte-Carlo so Beijing points doesn't matter. Same goes for Djokovic, since it's BEST CASE assumption it means he wins Dubai and Monte-Carlo, so winning Rotterdam doesn't change anything.

Noted. With the updated notes in the post, I'll assume that players can change tournaments they want to join anytime to create the "BEST CASE" scenario for my projections. Since anything less than the "BEST CASE" means it'll be easier for Roger to maintain at #1. As each tournament completes, I'll then update the points according to what the players participated in and we can see when we can actually 100% GUARANTEE Roger will reach #287 weeks.

Well, I would have preferred to consider the tournaments they will actually play :
for instance we KNOW that Nadal will not play in february, then I don't understand why we would consider that he might play Memphis.

Until Miami we know the official entry-lists, and only a wild-card might change the tournaments they would take part
... and I don't think that these top-players will change their schedule in february.

After Miami, there's nothing certain, then you could consider the best you want

As for Davydenko (and also Nadal), I was not speaking about the "best-case (for them, not for Roger ) calculation table" (in that case, yes, Davydenko will surely not have to use Beijing),
but rather about the table "dropping-off last year's points" (which is the "worst case" for each of them individually).

Congratulations for your thread anyway

Originally Posted by wackykid

If anyone can provide some easy way to prove that the rest of the field MATHEMATICALLY WILL NOT catch up, therefore complete the proof to make the "GUARANTEE", I will update it into my post.

I've made the "dropping-off" points calculation for the top-24 then I can guarantee : they are all behind Nadal and unless they win Indian Wells and Miami, Roger can feel safe

[Michael Bluth]

A huge boost for Roger would be to win a Masters Shield. It would guarantee his ranking until Roland Garros. And of course it would tie Agassi for the all-time MS record.

[JediFed]

well, it's 7500 points, including Rotterdam.

After Rotterdam it will be max 7000 points, and number 50 is around 800 points or so.

Roger's got about a 600 point gap before he starts eliminating the 800 point ranked players or so. Players who can't get into the MS series, are already eliminated from contention.

[wackykid]

Originally Posted by JediFed

well, it's 7500 points, including Rotterdam.

After Rotterdam it will be max 7000 points, and number 50 is around 800 points or so.

Roger's got about a 600 point gap before he starts eliminating the 800 point ranked players or so. Players who can't get into the MS series, are already eliminated from contention.

actually how u calculate max 7000 points minus Rotterdam? did you exclude french open? i'd calculate it to be:
French Open 2000
Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, Madrid 4000
Monte-Carlo + Memphis + Dubai + Barcelona 2500
2 x ATP 250 = 500

Total of 9000 points for grabs, excluding Rotterdam...

anyway have made updates to the thread... in summay:

15-Feb updates:
1) Del Potro is ruled out all the way to Dubai, so i have removed his points from that period. But in theory he could still replace the tournaments missed with Casablanca/Houston, Barcelona and Munich/Serbia/Estoril...
2) Memphis is going to start and nadal looks like going to miss it... so points will be taken away from Nadal...
3) Both Djokovic and Davydenko lost in the semis of Rotterdam... hence neither of them adds on any additional points
4) Murray and Nadal misses Rotterdam and drops 500 and 300 points respectively... hence Nadal overtakes and become no.3...


regards,
wacky

[Massimoexp]

i didn't understand why Roger is playing the estoril tournament....it won't affect the ranking points too much....

[yesyesok]

It says Nadal is counting 0 from Rotterdam over his DC. This suggest to me it is a points penalty and he can't replace it.
Of this I am pretty sure.

[JediFed]

RG, 2000

MC, IW, KB, Rome, Madrid = 5000

Those are the tournaments that everyone is going to play.

Dubai, and Barca, won't likely have the full contingent, and I won't include those until they come around.

All the other MM tournaments don't have the fields to really have an impact.

[BlueSwan]

Originally Posted by Massimoexp

i didn't understand why Roger is playing the estoril tournament....it won't affect the ranking points too much....

I don't get it either, he usually does well at Monte Carlo and that's a GREAT tournament.

[solowyn]

Well he did say he wanted to make his required 250 and 500 tournaments this year.

[SUKTUEN]

but he said he will play in Dubai ~right?

[wackykid]

Originally Posted by hass300

Well he did say he wanted to make his required 250 and 500 tournaments this year.

Originally Posted by SUKTUEN

but he said he will play in Dubai ~right?

well somehow i have feeling he will end up NOT meeting required 250 and 500 again... his main focus will be the slams and unless he is remarkably healthy the whole year everyday... i think if he is not 100%... he'd likely to skip some more tournaments so as not to risk having to miss the slams...

well as for Dubai... i don't think he had intended to skip it... lung infection can be pretty serious and even if it's the slams he'd probably have to miss it...


regards,
wacky

[SUKTUEN]

GOD Please Bless Roger get well soon!!!!

Take care Roger!!

[BlueSwan]

Tipsy helping Roger out today by ousting Murray. Djoker not too convincing either, but he's still in.

[JediFed]

Gap between Murray maximum and Fed minimum now 4180.

[BlueSwan]

Well, Roger seems intent on actually making this race close. Lost to Baghdatis after having MP's in two different sets.