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Old 04-18-2010, 02:49 PM   #166
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by marcRD View Post
By now I think Nadal has a better shot than not to win MC, Barcelona, Rome and RG. That would give him 8,550 points+whatever he gets from Madrid which I think he wont play.

Federe will have to win more than 1240 points in Rome, Estoril, Madrid and RG to secure nr1 in that case. So lets say Federer loses in an early round in Rome, wins Estoril, loses in SF in Madrid and in QF in RG, that would mean Nadal would be nr1 before Federer can get his record. While Fed probably will produce better results than that I can see the danger if he plays bad before RG and I really can see Federer losing before SF in RG aswell.

Federer still is 80% to break the record, but after Wimbledon Nadal should be nr1.
Funny how Nadal's clay game has suddenly turned the tables on Fed's chances to beat Sampras' record. Nadal's success on clay was completely expected so nothing new happened between Miami and Monte Carlo. Even before Nadal's MC win, Fed needed to play really well to beat the record. He still needs to now.
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Old 04-18-2010, 04:46 PM   #167
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Funny how Nadal's clay game has suddenly turned the tables on Fed's chances to beat Sampras' record. Nadal's success on clay was completely expected so nothing new happened between Miami and Monte Carlo. Even before Nadal's MC win, Fed needed to play really well to beat the record. He still needs to now.
Yes, but people dont seem to be too good in math and odds around here. They thought Murray and Djokovic were the biggest threats beacause they have less points to defend during clay season. Nadal has every single year won 2 master series, Barcelona and RG he won 4 out of 5 times. He doesnt have any points to defend in RG and grass season, so go figure...
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Old 04-18-2010, 05:18 PM   #168
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Can we now please all agree that Nadal is the ONLY real threat to Rogers #1 ranking at the moment?
i think nobody disputes that nadal is the ONLY real threat... there is a difference between what math says and what tennis says... and really... this thread is actually ONLY about math... the whole point is to hope that we can get to the kind of margins where by to the margins will ensure sampras record will be broken...


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Old 04-18-2010, 08:35 PM   #169
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Can we now please all agree that Nadal is the ONLY real threat to Rogers #1 ranking at the moment?
now yes, after quarterfinals I still believed in Djokovic, because he really played great against Nalbandian after Wawrinka. But now ... only 1240 points difference between Nadal and Djokovic, with 800 points between the winner and runner-up in RG

What may be worse today than after Miami is :

- that Nadal feels great, no pain, he even said he will play in Nice : http://www.as.com/tenis/articulo/raf...asdasten_3/Tes I don't think he will but anyway it seems likely that he will play Madrid ... and could get several hundreds points more there

- that Del Potro is injured, and Söderling and Davydenko were absent from Monte-Carlo and will come back from injury : I still think that these players could beat him on clay, and esp Del Potro. In the end it's very possible that Federer's "record" depends on a great match by Del Potro for instance, which would take many points from Nadal.

Yes this record looks less likely.

But anyway, if Federer just misses a few hundred points to beat that record, I will consider him as responsible for playing like a shit in Miami, this tournament was a great opportunity considering the general level there.

On clay it's a totally different story : Nadal is the one who controls everything ... and especially without Del Potro, Söderling and Davydenko injured, and Djokovic still convalescent. With such easy matches he isn't even tired : in 2005-2006 at least the finals were played in best of 5 sets which could make him tired

Anyway, it wouldn't be the first time Federer misses a record by very little and a little bit by negligence (remember Canas in Miami 2007 and Vilas's great record) ... but I'm just wondering that I think I would prefer him to win Wimbledon than to beat this record : considering that, maybe it's not bad that he arrives fresh in Wimbledon. On clay another master controls everything and he's just powerless

And even if he misses that, it's not impossible that he gets number 1 back later in the year if he wins both Wimbledon and the US Open
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:59 AM   #170
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Federer really should have played Monte Carlo.
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Old 04-19-2010, 12:58 PM   #171
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Federer really should have played Monte Carlo.
Are you kidding me? I dont think it would do any good for him to be bagelled by Nadal in Monte Carlo. Better wait for Rome and Madrid where the surfaces suit him a little better and Nadal will be a little more tired.

Who cares about nr1 record really, it is not worth losing confidence against Nadal just to get some 360 or 600 points. Get rested and play good in Rome and Madrid, sounds like a good move by Federer. Let Nadal tire himself and maybe, just maybe history will repeat itself and he will find himself tired or slightly injured in RG and then we all know he is beatable (more so than when Federer is not 100% physicaly).

Monte Carlo has always been a bad start of the clay season for Federer, he always faced Nadal in finals between 2006-2008 and lost confidence losing to him without having much of a chanse anyway.

In Rome and Hamburg/Madrid he has played 4 times and won twice and the other 2 times where really close matches. As I said these tournaments suit Federer better and Nadal is alot more tired from the 3 weeks in MC/Barcelona/Rome when he gets in eventual finals.
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Old 04-19-2010, 04:24 PM   #172
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Nadal has just pulled out of Barcelona and thereby lost 500 points. This should help a little bit in the short term, but probably hurt in the long run.
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Old 04-19-2010, 04:55 PM   #173
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I think its a shame that Federer/we have to rely on Nadals knees to break the record. Hopefully Federer still accomplishes it on his terms (like he did at WTF at least partially).

This withdrawal may be a double edged sword however. In previous years Nadal always won 2 MS and Barca for 2500 points. Now since he is skipping Barca he could very easily win the remaining two masters for 3000 points (obviously losing 100 points compared to last year).

Anyways, for Federer to break the record he needs about 1400 points more.
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Old 04-19-2010, 05:47 PM   #174
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Midnight Ninja View Post
I think its a shame that Federer/we have to rely on Nadals knees to break the record. Hopefully Federer still accomplishes it on his terms (like he did at WTF at least partially).
yes you're absolutely right but on clay we all know the real number 1

And there are so many points for tournament winners in the new ranking system that if he won everything, it would be very hard for Federer now

Federer had to take more advantage before clay season, that's his fault

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This withdrawal may be a double edged sword however. In previous years Nadal always won 2 MS and Barca for 2500 points. Now since he is skipping Barca he could very easily win the remaining two masters for 3000 points (obviously losing 100 points compared to last year).
Overall I think it's a "good" news for Fed to break the record,

as it shows that all the communication about "I've never felt better" was bullshit.

Actually already yesterday after posting here, I had read I_mac saying that he might have played all Monte-Carlo with injections (and even maybe during Miami as well ).

Then I thought I had been misleading about that.

It's possible that he only got this problem in the end of his match against Verdasco, but more probably it was already there before.

Spanish media are also talking about him skipping Madrid.

Remember that he had talked about skipping Madrid for long, never about skipping Barcelona.

Yes he has good reasons to skip Barcelona, it's 3 weeks in a row ...

But it's not a good sign, even to play Madrid.

I don't buy the "oh good news : he's sensible" theory. For people like me who thought he might have no problem anymore, now we know that he does have problems. And probably he's had some for a few weeks.

Then maybe it's good for him for Roland-Garros (not sure for that, since he will play far longer matches there), but I don't think it's a good sign that he will play Madrid.

And then I think the way looks easier for Federer for the record.

Also players now know that he may have problems, even after short matches, then they now know that if they hold him longer, it may be good for them in the end, especially in Roland-Garros

But even with knee problems, Nadal can outplay everybody in Monte-Carlo (even if he didn't face the best opposition )
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Old 04-19-2010, 06:08 PM   #175
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I won't quote the entire post but I agree with you.

I don't think this is precautionary as some fans are calling it out to be but that still doesn't mean he can't/won't win the remaining clay tournaments. If we consider that he has had the problem since a few weeks, he reached the semis in Miami and won MC against pretty decent competition.

One thing that is annoying me is how Nadal is blaming the clay court scheduling. While it is condensed and could use some change, it is still upto him. Monte-Carlo and Barcelona are not required tournaments. Between Rome and Madrid there is a week off which is better than Canada-Cincinnatti. The only real option to change would be condense IW-Miami but then that isn't the clay court season.

Anyways, this is the #1 record thread and we are slightly off-topic. I guess Rome will be quite important for Federer and Nadal. With such news the race to #1 (not for the record but in general) even after Wimbledon is very intriguing.
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Old 04-19-2010, 06:35 PM   #176
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I won't quote the entire post but I agree with you.

I don't think this is precautionary as some fans are calling it out to be but that still doesn't mean he can't/won't win the remaining clay tournaments. If we consider that he has had the problem since a few weeks, he reached the semis in Miami and won MC against pretty decent competition.

One thing that is annoying me is how Nadal is blaming the clay court scheduling. While it is condensed and could use some change, it is still upto him. Monte-Carlo and Barcelona are not required tournaments. Between Rome and Madrid there is a week off which is better than Canada-Cincinnatti. The only real option to change would be condense IW-Miami but then that isn't the clay court season.

Anyways, this is the #1 record thread and we are slightly off-topic. I guess Rome will be quite important for Federer and Nadal. With such news the race to #1 (not for the record but in general) even after Wimbledon is very intriguing.
yes, if Nadal still manages to win Roma, Madrid and the French Open in a way or another, Federer needs 1700 points, which is still much.

As for Nadal blaming the calendar, well the reason imo is that it's very hard for him to find a justification which his Spanish fans can hear, which doesn't sound like neglecting Barcelona or like saying that he has huge problems. Nothing more than a trial to escape real questions.
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:00 PM   #177
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I want Federer to achieve the record on his own terms or not at all. He needs to win one of the free big clay tournaments. Difficult no doubt, but not impossible. He has done it before even with Nadal around...
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Old 04-19-2010, 07:54 PM   #178
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I want Federer to achieve the record on his own terms or not at all. He needs to win one of the free big clay tournaments. Difficult no doubt, but not impossible. He has done it before even with Nadal around...
It is very relative on whose terms he breaks it, if he does. You can't blame a #1 for benefitting from others playing below their potential. There is no absolute standard for being #1. Players have been ranked #1 with less points than others have had while being ranked #4.

Also I don't think we should keep Federer up to a higher standard than Sampras. Surely Sampras received 'presents' by underperforming competitors once in a while. The next 8 weeks do not have more weight than the previous 279 weeks. There is no reason why he somehow should show additional excellence during the weeks he breaks a record.

That is not to say Federer is benefitting from other's misery right now. At the very least, Federer will be holding 2 Slams plus a RU if he breaks the record following Halle. That would make him a extremely worthy #1 regardless of his or Nadal's clay results. I don't understand why he would need to win a clay title this spring to make him 'earn' the record.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:10 PM   #179
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Apophis: I don't think we are arguing that the competition is weak. I even argued to a detractor the same as you that he will hold 2 slams and a RU if he breaks the record. My only issue is that Federer could have closed this chapter by achieving half decent results at IW, Miami. Heck he even half assed Paris-Bercy. I didn't even care that he did not play Monte-Carlo, Shanghai, Tokyo. He has different priorities which need to be respected. It's just that where he did take part, he could be much much better.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:20 PM   #180
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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It is very relative on whose terms he breaks it, if he does. You can't blame a #1 for benefitting from others playing below their potential. There is no absolute standard for being #1. Players have been ranked #1 with less points than others have had while being ranked #4.

Also I don't think we should keep Federer up to a higher standard than Sampras. Surely Sampras received 'presents' by underperforming competitors once in a while. The next 8 weeks do not have more weight than the previous 279 weeks. There is no reason why he somehow should show additional excellence during the weeks he breaks a record.

That is not to say Federer is benefitting from other's misery right now. At the very least, Federer will be holding 2 Slams plus a RU if he breaks the record following Halle. That would make him a extremely worthy #1 regardless of his or Nadal's clay results. I don't understand why he would need to win a clay title this spring to make him 'earn' the record.
Actually it's true that people don't always realize that players used to be number 1 with far less points than in recent years, even Sampras often had less points than Fed now.

But I guess people only mean that it's not pleasant being there just waiting for Nadal's injury to celebrate, that's nonsense

People would prefer Federer to play great clay tournaments, and it's perfectly understandable : I also do

Even though I think like Midnight Ninja that he could have made it more comfortable making more efforts on hard courts in recent months while many of his rivals were in bad condition. Whereas on clay he's not the number 1
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