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Old 09-16-2014, 08:55 PM   #1
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Default AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Chris Tilley floating the idea of giving Jasika an AO MD wildcard:

Quote:
Tennis Australia will consider awarding Omar Jasika a wildcard into the Australian Open but is wary of burdening the newly-crowned US Open junior champion with unfair expectations.

Jasika is the latest young sensation to emerge from TA's prolific junior production line and hopes are high that he and fellow young guns Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis can forge a new golden era in Australian tennis.

Kyrgios, up to 51st in the rankings following his Wimbledon and US Open heroics, and Kokkinakis, a two-time junior grand slam finalist last year, are two of only five teenagers in the top 200...

"Success at the junior level has never guaranteed a successful transition to the pro tour - and this is even more pronounced now when the average age of the top players is well into their 20s, around 27," Tiley told AAP.

"What is really encouraging is that our transitioning players are starting to be competitive at the highest level."..

"The transition from junior tennis to men's tennis is quite a big step," Smith said.

"Not every player can make that transition in six months, in one year.

"You're not going to suddenly win every men's future or men's challenger you play because you've had success as a junior.

"There's going to be ups and downs."

Smith said it was too early to tip how far Jasika could go, but Tiley admitted the teenager would be considered for an Australian Open wildcard.

If not granted entry into the main draw, Jasika could well receive a wildcard into the qualifying event in January.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sp...open-wildcard/

Personally I quite like it - better to give chances to those who will benefit from the development op than those who have been sitting around in the 100-200 group for a while!

Seems to me the other person with a strong case for a wc is John Millman - coming up the ranks rapidly after injury and received very little other support from TA.

But who after that? Ebden is about to drop out of the top 100, but has the chance to get himself back in over the next few months and so arguably doesn't deserve one if he can't do it.

Not entirely impossible for one or two others (Kokk, Saville, Duckworth) to get into main draw themselves with a decent qualifying and run in Asian swing and/or a couple of challenger titles, but long odds. If they can't do it, you'd have to think Kokk, Saville and Bolt are the next frontrunners for MD given strong improvement over the year, with Thompson for qualifying?
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Old 09-17-2014, 02:15 AM   #2
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

God no.
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Old 09-17-2014, 02:22 AM   #3
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Do elaborate Chris! I suspect Tilley is just trolling, but then again USO slots for junior champs worked ok for them this year, and Jasika has just been awarded a wc for the Malaysian Open (a bit ironic given they wouldn't give one to the 'half Kampung kid' last year)...
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Old 09-17-2014, 03:44 AM   #4
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Chris might be thinking the same as me. It's a very dangerous idea to put these kids on the big stage at such a young age. No need to rush their development while running risk they will be embarrassed on the big stage which completely destroys their confidence. A lot of them haven't developed enough mental strength to effectively cope with a lopsided defeat on the big stage. This will counteract any development they have derived from the experience. It should be reserved for outstanding talents such as Tomic, Kyrgios and Kokkinakis. Jasika is promising but at the moment he doesn't have the record that they had as juniors. The youth policy at its extreme was terrible and ideas such as giving Jasika a wildcard into the Aus Open because he won the US Open juniors is something that belongs back then. Not now. If Jasika comes out over the next few months and puts in some impressive results then he is right in contention, but the US Open Juniors shouldn't hold much weight. I personally believe that main draw wildcards should be decided on merit. If two candidates are around the same mark then factors such as potential should come into play. But only then. I'm fine with a player's potential being a significant factor in the distribution of qualifying wildcards but not for the maindraw.

Article is not too concerning though. Seems as though the journalist was trying to get a story about Jasika in line to receive a wildcard and Tiley wasn't really giving much besides the last part whilst emphasising how difficult the transition is from juniors to seniors.
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Old 09-17-2014, 04:37 AM   #5
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Quote:
I personally believe that main draw wildcards should be decided on merit. If two candidates are around the same mark then factors such as potential should come into play. But only then. I'm fine with a player's potential being a significant factor in the distribution of qualifying wildcards but not for the maindraw.
But what does merit really mean in this context?

Firstly, if we were going on merit, it wouldn't be restricted to Australian players! Why should Oz players who just happen to be sitting over the line for MD get points and a fat cheque over those who come from other countries?

But if you do think it should be restricted to Australians, I can see a case for those who aren't getting other funding or support from TA on the spreading the largesse theory.

The more important priority though, is arguably getting those players who are capable to staying in the top 100 into it. No point giving a MD chance to someone who even if they win a match and make a big jump up ratings, isn't likely to be competitive at the next level yet (unless they really aren't far off in development and need the big lights experience).

But who is most likely to be able to leverage a main draw win into entry to main tour match wins? Not necessarily the person highest on rankings or even race.

The rolling rankings system heavily favours those players who have been around for a while at the same level the expense of those who are moving up.

First the fast movers who haven't played at tour level long may only have a few futures points at first as they didn't have the ranking to get entry to higher level tournies even if they are playing at that level. Secondly, ranking may not reflect real form because their play is rapidly improving as they gain match experience.

So genuine merit arguably wouldn't just look at absolute ranking, but on form in the lead up to the AO.

I can see a good case for wc for those who have been out a good long time on injury (hence Millman); rather less for the short term injuries that you have to expect. And even less of a case for those who drop out of top 100 because of a slump in form.
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Old 09-17-2014, 05:45 AM   #6
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

I have to disagree with the article and with you on this one Kate - winning US Open juniors was a great result but not enough to warrant an Australian Open WC. If Jasika plays the pro tour events back home and sweeps them then yes, give him a WC, but at the moment a lot of guys have a stronger case. I think even Thompson deserves a crack about Jasika, he's made a challenger semi and final off memory. WC discussion always makes good debate though

Exciting news about the Malaysian Open WC for Omar!
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Old 09-17-2014, 05:57 AM   #7
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

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Originally Posted by Kateoz View Post
But what does merit really mean in this context?
As long as there are five Australians worthy enough then they should receive the wildcards. You might get a rare exception from time to time. For example if the Australian Open was tomorrow I think Baghdatis would be in with a strong shout of receiving one although I think that will not be very popular in this section of the forum. It shouldn't be an issue come January though. You could make an argument that wildcards shouldn't exist and the first eight alternates should receive entry (not my opinion) but that is a discussion for the general messages section.

The way Tennis Australia distributes them should come down to merit. You have the wildcard play-off which I don't mind. It may seem to contradict my argument a bit but in the general scheme of things there are a number of advantages that arise from it that override the idea of wildcards based on merit. Plus the winner is still earning it. As for the other four wildcards then they should come down to merit. I agree that using the rankings is quite flawed and as a result there is no quantifiable way of determining them but really it is not too difficult to determine with a bit of common sense. Again if the Aus Open was tomorrow then it would be Duckworth, Kokkinakis, Saville, Baghdatis and the winner of the Aus Open Wildcard Playoff. If you don't want Baghdatis because he isn't Australian then it would be Jordan Thompson depending on results from the Wildcard Playoff/lead up tournaments. Putting Jasika in there purely because he won the US Open juniors is ridiculous. The wildcard situation will be a whole lot different in January though.
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Old 09-17-2014, 06:39 AM   #8
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

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I have to disagree with the article and with you on this one Kate - winning US Open juniors was a great result but not enough to warrant an Australian Open WC. If Jasika plays the pro tour events back home and sweeps them then yes, give him a WC, but at the moment a lot of guys have a stronger case. I think even Thompson deserves a crack about Jasika, he's made a challenger semi and final off memory. WC discussion always makes good debate though
Quote:
As long as there are five Australians worthy enough then they should receive the wildcards. You might get a rare exception from time to time. For example if the Australian Open was tomorrow I think Baghdatis would be in with a strong shout of receiving one although I think that will not be very popular in this section of the forum. It shouldn't be an issue come January though. You could make an argument that wildcards shouldn't exist and the first eight alternates should receive entry (not my opinion) but that is a discussion for the general messages section.

The way Tennis Australia distributes them should come down to merit. You have the wildcard play-off which I don't mind. It may seem to contradict my argument a bit but in the general scheme of things there are a number of advantages that arise from it that override the idea of wildcards based on merit. Plus the winner is still earning it. As for the other four wildcards then they should come down to merit. I agree that using the rankings is quite flawed and as a result there is no quantifiable way of determining them but really it is not too difficult to determine with a bit of common sense. Again if the Aus Open was tomorrow then it would be Duckworth, Kokkinakis, Saville, Baghdatis and the winner of the Aus Open Wildcard Playoff. If you don't want Baghdatis because he isn't Australian then it would be Jordan Thompson depending on results from the Wildcard Playoff/lead up tournaments. Putting Jasika in there purely because he won the US Open juniors is ridiculous. The wildcard situation will be a whole lot different in January though.
Yes I have to admit that I was being deliberately provocative on Omar, I'd put Thompson in front of him as well.

And the wc comp is a quite good idea I think, a chance for Australians to actually see our players in action against each other which we rarely do. If they could find a rationale for it, I would love a comp that brings in all of the Australians including top rankings, a nationals... But we have to take what we can get.

And I agree that come January things will almost certainly look different.

Not sure that on current form I'd say Duckworth, Kokkinakis, Saville, Baghdatis though.

The latter has certainly had an up and down year with injury and bad luck in getting Cilic in USO, but has had chances. But if you were going to include non-Australians, a stronger case is surely the two closest to making it into top 100 for the first time (and already there on the race) Krajinovic and Dzumhir.

And on the Australians, why Duckworth? He has been holding at around the same position as he was this time last year. Some good results, including that Lexington win so performed solidly to hold position, but his rank really does reflect his form on the face of it, so not sure why he'd deserve to jump over the big improvers whose rank arguably doesn't?
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Old 09-17-2014, 10:28 AM   #9
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Jasika is nominated for the futures in Alice later this month,

Lets give him some wild cards to the Traralgon challengers and if he's showing some form against men by all means give him a WC to the aus open main draw

Last edited by The Lad : 09-17-2014 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 09-17-2014, 11:35 AM   #10
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Quote:
Jasika is nominated for the futures in Alice later this month,

Lets give him some wild cards to the Traralgon challengers and if he's showing some form against men by all means give him a WC to the aus open main draw
I agree - had a look and he's actually ahead of where the Kokk was rankings wise this time last year, and on rankings alone more or less where Kyrgios was two years ago, so could well be able to make the jump at the same rate. Won't know until he is tested a bit though...
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Old 09-17-2014, 01:16 PM   #11
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Aggred with jmf07 he is not ready yet.
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Old 09-18-2014, 01:00 AM   #12
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

I really hope John Millman gets one.
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:00 AM   #13
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

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Originally Posted by scotthongkong View Post
I really hope John Millman gets one.
Would be nice but it's going to hard to justify with the choices we have.

If Jaiska gets one with out any pro results then that'll be a joke, would have to do well in our upcoming futures and challengers to have a chance.

Kokkansis & Duckworth (time to start improving in the next 12 months though) should be locks and Saville probably is too despite the injury. With guys like Thompson and Bolt as well, with Ebden maybe having a case if he has a solid end of year and just misses out.
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:23 AM   #14
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Quote:
Would be nice but it's going to hard to justify with the choices we have.

If Jaiska gets one without any pro results then that'll be a joke, would have to do well in our upcoming futures and challengers to have a chance.

Kokkansis & Duckworth (time to start improving in the next 12 months though) should be locks and Saville probably is too despite the injury. With guys like Thompson and Bolt as well, with Ebden maybe having a case if he has a solid end of year and just misses out.
Why would Millman be hard to justify while Duckworth is a lock????

I realise I'm coming to this as an outsider without understanding the internal dynamics here, but surely Millman has a very strong case - best ranking highest of the group outside the top 100, but out for a long time on injury; seemingly making a good return to form with his two recent futures wins. Obviously need to wait and see how he goes over next few months, but on the face of it isn't this exactly the kind of situation wcs are designed for? Plus given he has supported himself rather than relied on TA and his case improves even further on the face of it.

And why is Duckworth a lock, is it just because he is currently the top ranked of the group?
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:51 AM   #15
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Default Re: AO qualifying and MD wildcards

Duckworth has paid his dues qualifying for the last five or so slams before the US Open this year. Millman - as much as I'd love him to get a wildcard - won't receive one unless he has extraordinary late-season results/and or incredible run at Brisbane. Kokk and Saville are the other certainties at this stage.

Jasika won't get a look in if they are serious about moving on from their dark ages. Last thing he needs is a Kubler-esque introduction to Grand Slam tennis before he is ready. Think I heard he just got a wildcard to the Malaysian Open ATP250 so we'll get an indication of where he is at there.
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