[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by GustavoM_Fan

Bolar
in bwin I have Garmin 4,5 and Columbia 6,5 . Saxo 8
do the others teams stand a chance?

No!

I personally don't understand why Astana are favourite.

They did fuck all in a shorter distance in the Giro without Kloden and Contador.

If Cav, Renshaw and Eisel make it over the first incline with the team, on the flat - technical corners, Cavendish can put out major bursts for them. This TTT suits sprinters aswell. You need someone fast on those technical corners to boost the speed up. Cav/Eisel/Renshaw can do that.

Columubia or Garmin win tonight.

These are my predicted time differences.

1. Columbia
2. Garmin +4 seconds
3. Astana +12 seconds
4. Liquigas +30 seconds
5. Saxo Bank +38 seconds
6. Cevelo +48 seconds
7. Milram +57 seconds
8. ?
9. ?
10. ?
11. Silence Lotto +1:56
Last: FDJ +3.57

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by jmf07

Team Columbia to win TTT @7.20
Team Columbia to defeat Astana @3.64
Cervelo to win TTT @440
Milram to win TTT @620
Team Columbia to defeat Garmin @2.24
Milram to defeat Katusha @1.90

Where did you get $7.20 brother?

[jmf07]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

Where did you get $7.20 brother?

Betfair. They had some ridiculous odds. Now Columbia are out to 7.80.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Thanks...I see that.

Adding

2 units Martin in yellow @ $6.60

I'm confident that Columbia put 34 seconds on Saxo-Bank.

Good luck!

[Bolar Bolabi]

To further the Columbia notion.

Astana will be content to have time gaps over Evans and Sastre. The biggest GC threats are their own teammates and riding conservatively as a team mitigates potential conflicts. They can't gain time on each other unless they have crashes. And it would be good for them if Saxo Bank or Columbia would continue to do the pace making in the upcoming stages. In any case, I suspect that Astana will soon have to do more of the pacemaking.

Good luck boys!

I'm adding a further 3 units on Columbia over Saxo @ $1.65

Good luck!

[Bolar Bolabi]

Read into this what you will:

Interesting tidbit from l'Equipe today- when Contador crossed the line, he expressed surprise at learning that Astana had collaborated in the escape, saying no such instructions had come over team radio. Yet Popovych could be clearly seen acknowledging or forwarding the call to ride, around 25k before the finish. That tells us the call either came from within the group itself, or Bruyneel runs more than one radio channel.

[its.like.that]

Originally Posted by its.like.that

Stage 4:

Astana to win the TTT @ 2.06

win.

Too easy.

Bolar - not sure why you thought Astana had no chance . They won by 18 seconds ffs.

[GustavoM_Fan]

http://www.letour.fr/2009/TDF/LIVE/f...llChronos.html

http://twitter.com/mickrogers
Back in hotel chillin. We did the best we could. Class act by Astana.. They know how to win these ttt's. Experience, experience, experience

http://twitter.com/LeviLeipheimer
You couldn't do what we did without a unified & committed team. It's been a dream to win TTT in Tour de France

http://twitter.com/lancearmstrong


from what I read Columbia guys were very tired for today after stage 3...

Cervelo team d. Silence Lotto was a good bet by Bolar.
some days ago Sastre`s team rented a little airport in Switzerland to practice for this stage

The last few days clearly took it's toll on Team Columbia. I also think that will translate into stage 5 and Cav's chances.

[Bolar Bolabi]

I don't think today is a sprint finish.

If you remember back to Stage 3, no team wanted to help Columbia. They thought it was a useless exercise to help as they knew Cav would win. They hope Columbia do all the work to bring the gap back but Columbia are clearly tired.

This will be either;

a) a carbon copy of stage 3 with a split
b) a break

Don't be surprised if some major GC contenders like Silence Lotto and Rabobank who have now lost too much time on their rivals put a hammer down today in the hope of splitting the peloton to hopefully get Astana off guard.

This stage is a mystery today IMO.

Yet again, I thought I had a sensbile write up yesterday and I got slaughtered.

If I play today, it's only small and I see good value in Pineau, Voeckler, Voigt and Chavanel each at 100's and maybe Haussler at 80's on betfair.

The break is a good chance to survive today unless Columbia can bring the gap back themselves (highly possible) or GC teams repeat what Columbia did on Stage 3 (highly possible)

Too much of a mystery to bet. Better off waiting for a classics specialist tomorrow (Andy Schleck, Allesandro Ballan or Kim Kirchen) and wait for Friday with Contador, Krueziger or Sastre.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Yesterday was horrible. I'm on the defensive at the moment.

If you can get the field to beat Cavendish, take it.

Originally Posted by its.like.that

win.

Too easy.

Bolar - not sure why you thought Astana had no chance . They won by 18 seconds ffs.

Lance Armstrong = luckiest sportsman in the world. I'm suprised the tour organisers did not adjust the times to ensure he was in yellow tonight.

Columbia won't be trying to chase down any breaks today Bolar, I think they have learnt their lesson in yesterday's TTT of expending unecessary energy.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Is it me or can anyone see the following:

Astana being the Saulnier Duval of last year when they dominate Friday's stage.

Some riders being a Vino in 2007?

But they won't coz Lance is covering up the same shit he was in 1999-2005. But it would be good to see them get unstuck.

I don't know BG about Columbia. They are here for stage wins and not for the GC. They might throw someone in the break...that's a possibility I suppose. This is the last real stage until Tuesday to set up a sprint for Cav.

Rogers is high up in the GC yes, but he has done so much work in the first week. Columbia won't be featuring anywhere come Saturday week.

But I'm not touching Cav at that price. Any other stage, I would. But this is going to be a strange stage. I've done the following and will leave it at that.

.2 units on the following

Vogondy @ $100
Voigt @ $100
Pineau @ $100
Chavanel @ $100
Ignatiev @ $66
Voeckler @ $100
Auge @ $80

If I play anymore, it's in live betting.

Good luck!

[Bolar Bolabi]

Columbia will be the only team that will chase down a break if they want the break caught. No other team will help them. Columbia don't have the firepower to do that. They will wait till next week where Cav can win from Tuesday to Friday

All the other GC teams unless Evans and Sastre want to put time on Astana will take it easy today after the hard few days.