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Old 07-19-2009, 04:25 PM   #181
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Final Bets Tonight!

Head to Head!

1 unit Gerdemann over Monfort @ $2.28
5 unit Sastre over Armstrong @ $1.85
10 units Sastre over Vande Velde @ $1.72
2 unit Kreuzger over Nibali @ $2.10
5 unit Sastre over F Schleck @ $1.85
Now I can understand spreading bets across a few long shots for the stage win in case a breakaway succeeds, but for a so called cycling expert, I don't understand some of these head to heads.

Vande Velde is a journeyman rider, and he's a very average climber. Sastre over him @ 1.72 was the biggest banker of the day. Why did you bother taking Sastre to beat Frank Schleck, two evenly matched great climbers, for a mere extra $0.13? Same goes for Armstrong (even though this bet came off, I don't see the point in taking on a much tougher opponent, for marginally better odds).

Similarly, the Kreuziger and Gerdemann bets seem rather pointless.
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Old 07-19-2009, 04:28 PM   #182
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Originally Posted by its.like.that View Post
For those with big toys: Sastre to donkey punch Evans up Verbier @ 2.55

And for the conservatives: Sastre to beat Vande Velde @ 1.72

Fill your boots!
Hope some of you got on .

No idea what the books were thinking with the Vande Velde odds, defending champ v journeyman @ just under evens? I'll take it every day of the week.
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Old 07-19-2009, 09:15 PM   #183
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Andy Schleck to beat Evans - $1.75

Andy Schleck EW - $7.50/$2.70

gl
win, lost, win (place)

Finally a decent stage with the big boys dominating
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Old 07-20-2009, 05:31 AM   #184
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Originally Posted by its.like.that View Post
Now I can understand spreading bets across a few long shots for the stage win in case a breakaway succeeds, but for a so called cycling expert, I don't understand some of these head to heads.

Vande Velde is a journeyman rider, and he's a very average climber. Sastre over him @ 1.72 was the biggest banker of the day. Why did you bother taking Sastre to beat Frank Schleck, two evenly matched great climbers, for a mere extra $0.13? Same goes for Armstrong (even though this bet came off, I don't see the point in taking on a much tougher opponent, for marginally better odds).

Similarly, the Kreuziger and Gerdemann bets seem rather pointless.
Looking back at it now - yes waste of money. Point taken Jim! Idiot bets.

And yes - the long shots do work out occasionally - I've bagged two of them.

The long shots will keep on happening. The next stage is shit, Wednesday's stage is big but it's before a time trial, friday's stage is breakaway as Saturday is ventoux.

From what I can tell, there are a few riders who are targetting a stage win. I'm going to look through more.

Juan Manuel Garate
Jose Ivan Gutierrez
Sylvain Chavanel
David Moncoutie
David Millar or a Garmin rider - I'll get an idea on that one soon as I'll be asking Jonathan Vaughters a few questions later on today.

Not sure on the following:

Stijn Devolder
Michael Rogers (aimed for last fridays stage but had a crash the day before. Need to find out what stage he is aiming for next.) - Use your contacts, see if you can find out.

Chances are the only bets I put on Tomorrow, Wednesday and Friday will be those riders. Tomorrow Moncoutie is 23, Garate is 67, Gutierrez is 101 - I read that Gutierrez will keep trying as he wants a stage win this week.

I'm pissed off Leipheimer is out because he would have been a good bet for the time trial on Thursday. Although, I'd like to know what his odds are first.

When the next stage suitable to head to heads come around (Time Trial), I'll use your advice Jim.
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Old 07-20-2009, 06:19 AM   #185
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
I'm pissed off Leipheimer is out because he would have been a good bet for the time trial on Thursday. Although, I'd like to know what his odds are first.

When the next stage suitable to head to heads come around (Time Trial), I'll use your advice Jim.


Why do you love throwing away money on this Leipheimer clown so much? He's f*cking shit. It's a blessing for you that he's out. Have you ever won a cent on him?
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Old 07-20-2009, 06:35 AM   #186
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
What I'm trying to say numbnuts is the following: If I go to betfair and say put 3 units on Rider "A". The whole 3 units won't be matched. If in live betting I put 3 units on Rider "A" instead, the bet will be matched. Partial matches are bullshit!
Bolar, your argument makes absolutely no sense.

Do you even understand how betfair works? Whether your bet is matched or not depends on what odds you submit, not whether the market is in-play or not. If you go to the GC market and try to back Contador @ 1000, then of course your bet won't be matched because he is trading at a much lower price. If the odds you are trying to attain are above the current trading price, then your bet will go into a queue, it may end up being matched, it may not.

In any case, for a stage win, you will almost always attain better odds for every cyclist at betfair than any bookmaker. Often your whole bet will not be matched at the same odds, but the overall average odds will still exceed those of a bookmaker.

Yesterday, had you gone to betfair and entered Sastre @ 13 and Kreuziger @ 41, you would have been matched at much better odds, this is a fact. And when I last checked prior to the start, the amount matched and available on each of these cyclists exceeded $1000, so liquidity for you would not be an issue.

Smarten up Bolar.
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Old 07-20-2009, 08:29 AM   #187
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Why do you love throwing away money on this Leipheimer clown so much? He's f*cking shit. It's a blessing for you that he's out. Have you ever won a cent on him?
I've won a lot on him.
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Old 07-20-2009, 08:29 AM   #188
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Originally Posted by its.like.that View Post
Bolar, your argument makes absolutely no sense.

Do you even understand how betfair works? Whether your bet is matched or not depends on what odds you submit, not whether the market is in-play or not. If you go to the GC market and try to back Contador @ 1000, then of course your bet won't be matched because he is trading at a much lower price. If the odds you are trying to attain are above the current trading price, then your bet will go into a queue, it may end up being matched, it may not.

In any case, for a stage win, you will almost always attain better odds for every cyclist at betfair than any bookmaker. Often your whole bet will not be matched at the same odds, but the overall average odds will still exceed those of a bookmaker.

Yesterday, had you gone to betfair and entered Sastre @ 13 and Kreuziger @ 41, you would have been matched at much better odds, this is a fact. And when I last checked prior to the start, the amount matched and available on each of these cyclists exceeded $1000, so liquidity for you would not be an issue.

Smarten up Bolar.

So it's best to submit slightly lower odds to get it matched from the outset?
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Old 07-20-2009, 01:57 PM   #189
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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So it's best to submit slightly lower odds to get it matched from the outset?
Slightly lower? Lower than what?

If there is only $5 available at certain odds, then obviously you won't get your whole bet matched at those odds. In this case, you have 2 options - be patient, leave a bet in the queue and hope that it gets matched, or take the next highest odds available.

Either way, you will get much better value than a bookmarker is willing to give.
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Old 07-20-2009, 02:38 PM   #190
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Pellizotti not to win KOM @ 5.00

He only has an 8 point lead, and plenty of points up for grabs in the days to come. Can't pass up this price.
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Old 07-21-2009, 08:08 AM   #191
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Pellizotti not to win KOM @ 5.00

He only has an 8 point lead, and plenty of points up for grabs in the days to come. Can't pass up this price.
Moncoutie still has the legs and only trails by about 70 points. He can make that up.

Moreau has a lot of legs left too.

But yes, Pellizotti won't win this.
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Old 07-21-2009, 09:49 AM   #192
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

.2 unit Matthew Lloyd $126
.2 unit David Arroyo $101
.2 unit Maxime Monfort $101
.2 unit Yaroslav Popovych $101
.2 unit Rigoberto Uran $81
.25 unit Juan Manuel Garate $67
.25 unit Michael Rogers $67
.3 unit Jose Ivan Gutierrez $67
.3 unit Mikel Astarloza $67
.3 unit Amets Txurruka $67
.3 unit Christophe Moreau $51
.3 unit Igor Anton $51
1 unit David Moncoutie $21

Good luck!
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Old 07-21-2009, 02:57 PM   #193
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

In play!

.3 units Sastre @ $75
.5 units Trofimov @ $25 - he's the descender in the break group.
.5 units Sanchez @ $29
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Old 07-21-2009, 02:59 PM   #194
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

.7 units Andy Schleck @ $22
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Old 07-21-2009, 04:20 PM   #195
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

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Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
.2 unit Matthew Lloyd $126
.2 unit David Arroyo $101
.2 unit Maxime Monfort $101
.2 unit Yaroslav Popovych $101
.2 unit Rigoberto Uran $81
.25 unit Juan Manuel Garate $67
.25 unit Michael Rogers $67
.3 unit Jose Ivan Gutierrez $67
.3 unit Mikel Astarloza $67
.3 unit Amets Txurruka $67
.3 unit Christophe Moreau $51
.3 unit Igor Anton $51
1 unit David Moncoutie $21

Good luck!
This works well.

Get another long shot tomorrow. I already have the rider in mind! Had him in mind for tomorrow's stage since the Tour began. All will be revealed tomorrow.
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