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Old 06-11-2009, 11:27 AM   #1
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Default 2009 Tour De France

Early odds from Centrebet

Code:
CONTADOR, Alberto (ESP) 2.05   	 
ARMSTRONG, Lance (USA) 	6.50  
SCHLECK, Andy (LUX) 	8.00  	
EVANS, Cadel (AUS) 	8.50  
MENCHOV, Denis (RUS) 	15.00  	
LEIPHEIMER, Levi (USA) 	26.00  	
SASTRE, Carlos (ESP) 	26.00  	 
ROGERS, Michael (AUS) 	34.00  	
KLODEN, Andreas (GER) 	41.00  	
KREUZIGER, Roman (CZE) 	41.00  	 
BASSO, Ivan (ITA) 	51.00  	
GESINK, Robert (NED) 	51.00  	
SANCHEZ, Samuel (ESP) 	51.00  	
SCHLECK, Frank (LUX) 	51.00  	
VANDE VELDE, Christian (USA) 	81.00  
COBO, Juan Jose (SPA) 	101.00  	
CUNEGO, Damiano (ITA) 	101.00  	
DEKKER, Thomas (NED) 	101.00  	
DEVOLDER, Stijn (BEL) 	101.00  	
KIRCHEN, Kim (LUX) 	101.00  	
PEREIRO, Oscar (ESP) 	101.00  	
SOLER, Mauricio (COL) 	101.00  	
BRAJKOVIC, Janez (SLO) 	151.00  	
CANCELLARA, Fabian (SUI) 151.00  	
DI LUCA, Danilo (ITA) 	151.00  	
GARATE, Juan Manuel (ESP) 151.00  	
GERDEMANN, Linus (GER) 	151.00  	
NIBALI, Vincenzo (ITA) 	151.00  	
POPOVYCH, Yaroslav (UKR) 151.00  	
MONCOUTIE, David (FRA) 	201.00  	
ZUBELDIA, Haimar (ESP) 	201.00  	
CHAVANEL, Sylvain (FRA) 251.00  	 
GOMEZ MARCHANTE, Jose Angel (ESP) 	
HINCAPIE, George (USA) 	251.00  	
KARPETS, Vladimir (RUS) 351.00
Armstrong is second favourite? Must be getting another booster shot before the race if that's the case

I think this is the year Andy Schleck steps up to the plate. Will most likely be taking him E/W
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Old 06-11-2009, 12:51 PM   #2
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Menchov's price is too short for what he accomplished. He won't do the double.

Sastre's price is highly juicy. Yes he doesn't have team support, but he showed in the Giro he can take it to anyone in the mountains.

Contador's price is a steal. It should be under $2.

You all know how I feel about Evans. This does suit him though. There are only 2 or 3 summit finishes. He has winning history on Ventoux. With 2 time trials and a team trial and the form he is in, especially in time trials, he's going to podium again. Whether he wins or not is another story, but he podiums.

This course suits Kreuziger. His form is very sustaining. He'll win Switzerland. He's my tip for Switzerland and I'll be putting a lot of money on him when I can get the odds for Switzerland. The tour, he'll get a top 10 result. $2.25 for top 10 looks a solid price. I'll lay the law down here right now. Kreuziger wins the TDF before Andy Schleck does. He's the better of the two.

Similar to Evans, Kloden's price looks good - but for place purposes as he's riding for Contador.

Put it this way, the podium will feature any of these riders. Sastre, Contador, Evans, Schleck, Kloden

Outside chances for top 10. Gerdemann $6, Nibali $6

Kloden top 10 $4? With the amount of time trialing and considering his two wins this year have come in the time trials and the lack of uphill finishes, surely that's something worth jumping over. Don't be surprised if I throw $2000 on Kloden top 10 and don't place any other bets. That is a steal IMO.

Evans to podium - that's a steal too.

But I guess it depends if he's riding it. He will be one of the names mentioned next week in this blood passport unusual values.

With the lack of uphill finishes, this gives the good descenders time to crawl back time on descents.

Kloden and Kreuziger and Kirchen fill out the podium in Switzerland. Kirchen top 10 would be good. Rogers sucks in GT time trials. But it guess it depends on Kirchen's form in Switzerland considering he broke his collar bone in February and he's done fuck all racing.

My bets might be

Kloden top 10
Evans podium
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Old 06-11-2009, 12:53 PM   #3
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Green Jersey won't be won by Cavendish too.

Haussler is the most consistent sprinter in the peloton. But he has Thor to contend with.

Freire, Haussler or Hushovd win the points comp.
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Old 06-29-2009, 06:00 PM   #4
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Some outrights:

Evans over Armstrong @ 2.00

Armstrong NOT to finish top 6 @ 2.24

Andy Schleck to win White Jersey @ 1.60
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Old 06-30-2009, 10:14 AM   #5
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Quote:
Originally Posted by its.like.that View Post
Some outrights:

Evans over Armstrong @ 2.00

Armstrong NOT to finish top 6 @ 2.24

Andy Schleck to win White Jersey @ 1.60
Stop inflating odds bozo.

Where the fuck do you find Evans at even money? I've looked everywhere and most places are around 1.70. It's an awesome bet. The better price the better. Tell!
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Old 07-01-2009, 07:21 AM   #6
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Stop inflating odds bozo.

Where the fuck do you find Evans at even money? I've looked everywhere and most places are around 1.70. It's an awesome bet. The better price the better. Tell!
Not inflating odds. Only tiny amounts matched, but it's at betfair, in any case.
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Old 07-03-2009, 03:52 AM   #7
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Stage 1

3 units Hushovd over Haussler @ $1.81
7 units Kirchen over Nibali @ $1.75

Good luck!
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Old 07-04-2009, 12:08 AM   #8
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Moncoutie will probably win the KOM based on his form at the Dauphine Libere but can't be backing him at 2.50.

Pierrick Fedrigo to win KOM - $50
Tony Martin to win KOM - $21

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Old 07-04-2009, 12:17 AM   #9
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post

Points Jersey

Freire is looking very strong.
Cavendish is too fast for everyone but won't be able to handle the 3 week race just yet.
I've taken Freire to win a stage at TDF - $2.00

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Old 07-04-2009, 01:33 AM   #10
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

good luck bg. that looks solid!
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Old 07-04-2009, 03:43 AM   #11
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Which of the following bets would you guys say is the best value bet and the safest bet?

Rogers over Vandevelde $1.85
Polka Dot Jersey - D.Moncoutie $3
Yellow Jersey - A.Contador $2

Also interested to hear what people think of the green jersey classification and who they think will take it out. Always eager to plonck a few down b4 the tour starts to make it that much more exciting.
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Old 07-04-2009, 08:19 AM   #12
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Cancellara to win stage 1 @ 1.70
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Old 07-04-2009, 10:27 AM   #13
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Contador E/W $8/$2.70

Clement to beat Devolder - $1.85

Martin to beat Wiggins - $2.45

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Old 07-04-2009, 10:52 AM   #14
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

This stage doesn't really suit Cancellara that much but still should be hard to beat.

.5 units Kirchen top 3 @ $16.50

1 unit Martin over Wiggins @ $2.57

1.5 unit Menchov over Kreuziger @ $1.91

Good luck!
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Old 07-04-2009, 10:54 AM   #15
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Default Re: 2009 Tour De France

Solid bet BG - thinking about it.

Contador needs to send a message out to prove a point.

Secondly, if he got yellow tonight, Astana won't defend it tomorrow. Providing the break isn't that threatening, they will just let the sprinters teams control the peloton.
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