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View Poll Results: Are players peaking at older ages in tennis now than in the past?

Yes 72 71.29%
No 22 21.78%
Don't know / don't care 7 6.93%
Voters: 101. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-22-2010, 10:27 PM   #91
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
no chance (except this one)
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Old 03-22-2010, 10:43 PM   #92
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

duong wouldn't be duong without the epistle-like style of writing

(same as it is hard to find a post of mine without emoticons )
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Old 03-22-2010, 10:46 PM   #93
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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duong wouldn't be duong without the epistle-like style of writing

(same as it is hard to find a post of mine without emoticons )
True dat
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Old 03-22-2010, 11:51 PM   #94
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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Believe me, on the mathematical point of view, I've studied it very precisely, there are one or two threads still left in this forum about that (maybve you've read them actually as what you mention is precisely one of the main things I said) :
you will find nothing special about the last change and on the mathematical point of view.
I haven't read those two threads (I only joined here in July 2009), but it's reassuring that we came up an identical result.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LocoPorElTenis View Post
Good thread. IMO, the main reason (of course already mentioned) is that due to the more physical nature of today's game players need to be fully developed in order to reach the top level.

Is longevity also increasing? How does the average retirement age(or age of dropping from the top 100) now compares with 10 or 20 years ago?
Longevity appears to be increasing too. This link will show you that there were at least 4 players 32 years or older in the year end rankings in 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2003. Before 2003, the last time that happened was in 1992. It never happened between 1986 and 1991 but there were at least 5 players aged 32 and older in the year end rankings from 1973 (when the rankings began) to 1985.

So although not at the level of the 70s or early 80s, there looks to be more older players at the top.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GugaF1 View Post
Good thread, but I see the exact opposite. I think that never has the new generation caused so much impact as now. You got Djokovic, JMDP, Cilic, Murray all GS contenders under or 24, some under 22. Even Nadal has been around for a while but he is not exact an older guy.

I think it is basically a good thing that the older guys are having better chances, because for a while it seems like getting into the 30 was a death sentence and tennis was becoming a youngters game. I can't seem to recall many guys into the 30ties doing well lately. So is good to see the Ferrreros, Ljubicic, Stepanek, Haas doing well lately.

But all in all, tennis can not really be considered a very generous sport for much of the older guys. So many sports Guys into the 30 and late 30 are able to reach their peak and be at the top of their game. While in Tennis late 30 is nearly game over professionaly. Problably because these guys all compete from so young already.
My article shows that the average age of the top 10 is more or less stable (note how all the excellent young players you mention are in the top 10), but it is the average of the top 100 that is increasing.
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Old 03-23-2010, 01:15 AM   #95
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

Good thread, enjoyed reading it, agree with most of all of your comments.
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Old 03-23-2010, 06:31 PM   #96
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
yes there is something like gthat but it's a small effect : I had made a simulation how the rankings do change with the old and new system and the impact was small.

Moreover it's rather older than young players who succeed in challengers

The topic here is far more complicated.

I rather think that the person here above who says that the level of the challengers and futures is higher than before has a much much stronger point.
This year we might found out if that is the case.
I agree that it might only make a small difference. I do think that it is quite an important change that might make it difficult for youngsters.
There are probably more significant reasons for this, which were discussed in this thread.
However, The transition period effect (points from the end of 2008 were much bigger than points from 2009) might be another reason (it affected seeding of course).

Last edited by amirbachar : 03-23-2010 at 06:46 PM.
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Old 03-23-2010, 06:43 PM   #97
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

cause pete Sampras is better than Federer (100000000% sure)

Ivan is better than Roddick (not sure)

Roddick is better than Djoker (90% sure)
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Old 03-23-2010, 06:53 PM   #98
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

Modern training/medical health allows older players to continue playing at a high level.

Also younger players seem to be less mentally tough than they once were, as if they are scared to succeed.
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Old 03-23-2010, 10:25 PM   #99
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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Originally Posted by amirbachar View Post
I agree that it might only make a small difference. I do think that it is quite an important change that might make it difficult for youngsters.
There are probably more significant reasons for this, which were discussed in this thread.
However, The transition period effect (points from the end of 2008 were much bigger than points from 2009) might be another reason (it affected seeding of course).
Frankly speaking, following the rankings week after week, looking at the players" results quite closely, I don't think it changed anything, simply because :

- in 2009, there were very few emerging young players, coming even near to top-100 : only De Bakker (88), and then you have to go to IStomin (generation 86) and then you have generations. Some players who stayed in the top-100 because of their results in the end of 2008 were also quite young, like Golubev or Mannarino. In older generation, nothing to note in generation 85 (the ones who didn't reach top-100 stayed quite far), and in older generations, players had ups and downs but not really players "emerging in top-100" that year.

- the players who succeeded in challengers last year were pretty old, even older than on the main tour, except Dolgopolov but anyway he mostly succeeded on clay and he wouldn't have got any main draw entry thanks to that.

Previous year it would have been quite different with a little bit more young emerging players, but last year the old players really had even more power than previous years. Actually inside the top-100, many of the players who improved their ranking a lot (and then were damaged by new system) were old players : Haas, Hewitt, Ljubicic, Ferrero for instance.

Anyway what's clear is that challengers have not been a place for young players' successes recently, rather for old ones, many born before 1980, see Luczak for instance

This year it's better by the way : especially many players born in 1987 emerge this year (I know they're 22-23, it's not considered young by some, but nowadays many players emerge around 22, I mean not the very-top ones but the ones applying for regular top-100) + Dolgopolov and De Bakker for generation 88.
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Old 03-24-2010, 07:00 AM   #100
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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Anyway what's clear is that challengers have not been a place for young players' successes recently, rather for old ones, many born before 1980, see Luczak for instance
The Challenger circuit should be for young up-and-comers instead of aging dinasaurs. Perhaps there should be an age limit? ... 27-28?
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Old 03-24-2010, 07:07 AM   #101
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The Challenger circuit should be for young up-and-comers instead of aging dinasaurs. Perhaps there should be an age limit? ... 27-28?
Rubbish of the highest order. That is how the young players develop, learn to win on the very tough Challenger circuit, many tournaments are played in shit conditions, playing against veterans who are trying to make their way back after injuries or their living before they can make the main draws of ATP events.

Especially this is the way through for players who don't have a powerful federation or agents behind them to give them wildcards.
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Old 03-24-2010, 07:11 AM   #102
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Rubbish of the highest order. That is how the young players develop, learn to win on the very tough Challenger circuit, many tournaments are played in shit conditions, playing against veterans who are trying to make their way back after injuries or their living before they can make the main draws of ATP events.

Especially this is the way through for players who don't have a powerful federation or agents behind them to give them wildcards.
Valid point regarding veterans making their way back from injury. But for older journeymen whos livelihood is Challengers, I disagree.
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Old 03-24-2010, 07:53 AM   #103
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The Challenger circuit should be for young up-and-comers instead of aging dinasaurs. Perhaps there should be an age limit? ... 27-28?
if that's the way you want youngsters to emerge : cutting competition , it's strange

why not put an age limit on main tour in that case ?

Anyway, where are players like Ramirez-Hidalgo and Kendrick supposed to play ?

a veterans' tour ?

and 27-28 is so young : well Federer would be allowed to play at 29, but not Gremelmayr, this is utter discrimination

I guess the name "futures" means something, but you're all only interested in top-100 (if not only in top-10 for many here ), and futures are not enough for that.

I guess it's quite normal that youngsters have to prove something first, and improve.

If they need more time than before because the game is more tactical/mental (I guess it's the main reason), then let it be : I like than being a ballbasher isn't enough to succeed in tennis
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Old 03-24-2010, 08:01 AM   #104
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Default Re: Age and Ranking - Why is the top 100 getting older?

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if that's the way you want youngsters to emerge : cutting competition , it's strange

why not put an age limit on main tour in that case ?
Oh let's not get carried away here. It was just an idea I threw out and yes, 27 is probably a bit too young.

Here in America every major sport has a farm system and if a prospect isn't able to prove himself by a certain age, they're generally let go. This was my line of thinking.
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Old 03-24-2010, 08:10 AM   #105
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Oh let's not get carried away here. It was just an idea I threw out and yes, 27 is probably a bit too young.

Here in America every major sport has a farm system and if a prospect isn't able to prove himself by a certain age, they're generally let go. This was my line of thinking.
yes I understand but some people also like watching old players : they have memories with them and enjoy their game

Esp many people prefer a more developed game like Cipolla than watching ballbashers like Korolev.
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