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Old 05-15-2009, 09:38 AM   #46
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

lol, nice excuse Bolar
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Old 05-15-2009, 10:44 AM   #47
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Angry Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

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lol, nice excuse Bolar
Can you leave the guy alone? Stop trolling in this thread
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Old 05-15-2009, 11:47 AM   #48
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Nah it's alright BG.

Mr know it all is going down in July anyway. He can have his fun now. It will bite him in the arse in 10 weeks.

Plus, me, unlike Jim, has a life and isn't on the net 24/7.
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Old 05-15-2009, 11:51 AM   #49
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

140km to go and the break has 6:48. I don't think the peloton will let it or someone else in it escape this time around.

If Cavendish and Pettachi make it to the top of this 1400m climb over 190km (which they should) then they will be on target to fight this stage out as with around 26km to go it will be easy for the sprint teams to build their trains heading downhill in a straight line.

If they don't, then I see this being battled out with the sprinters that can climb. Pozzato, Boassen-Hagen and Davis. Alan Davis is a good bet for this stage.
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Old 05-15-2009, 02:49 PM   #50
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

12km to go, the 5 leaders have a lead of 26 seconds. Boassen Hagen is up there so Columbia won't chase. If it gets caught, Cavendish is in good shape as he's up near the front. He tried an attack. That's right, Cavendish of all riders tried to attack on the descent to catch Bertolini who tried to go on his own. No organisation at the front so this will be interesting stage.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:07 PM   #51
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
To make no mistake I've managed to get on now to post the rest of my plays.

Yesterday afternoon was hectic. I sent a list of about 16 riders to get them to put them on so I could get the prices. Considering I was putting on the bets as they were going up, naturally I forgot some riders. At around quarter to 6, I noticed on my paper I wrote everything (including research, suspect breakaway guys etc) that I left out Froom and Scarponi (my earlier posts said them when i posted my research online), rang up sportingbet and did what was needed to put the bet on (minimum $20 bet over the phone on any single bet so unfortunately I had to put 20 on Froom when I wanted to put $10)

To make no mistake I have got these plays ready!

7 units Cavendish @ $4.25

.2 units Millar @ $51
.5 units Cancellara @ $21
.2 units Voigt @ $26
.2 units Voeckler @ $36

Podium Finish

.7 units Cancellara @ $5.75
.5 units Millar @ $12

Total units Staked 9.3

Good luck!

If I decide to add any, I will do so in the next half hour - at the latest 15 minutes after 6. If I can't post, then I won't record them even if they do/don't get up!

Added:

.2 units Visconti @ $26
.2 units Garzelli @ $26
.5 units Boasson-Hagen @ $14

In case Cav gets dropped, Boassen Hagen is a powerful sprinter and showed it yesterday. He will take the win!
10 units staked

Boasson-Hagen wins. - 7 units.

-3 units for the stage.

Fuck you Cavendish! Boasson-Hagen made it back though but still a loss.

Good move by Boassen-Hagon. Obviously Columbia didn't want to organise a sprint. They wanted someone in the break. Cavendish attacked but couldn't get through then Boasson-Hagen was ready to counter Cavendish and got through and 5 of them got together 13km from the finish and from there it was going to be Boasson-Hagen for the win or Hunter as the other 3 aern't sprinters.

Bertolini opened it up in the last km then Brutt chased after him, Boassen-Hagen got his wheel and Hunter tried to bridge. Boasson-Hagen peeled out and got a break and Hunter couldn't catch him. Brutt is the guy that won me the stage bringing Boasson-Hargen in it.

Boasson-Hargon is an up and coming sprinter. In his early 20's, he can climb and if he can polish up a few things, he is going to be a classics specialist in future years.

If Cavendish has Boasson-Hagen leading him out in the sprints in the TDF, Cavendish will be unstoppable. Cavendish is my tip for Sunday to break through. Not sure on tomorrow's stage yet.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:09 PM   #52
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Guy,don't you understand betting on this is just a tote,no sense ...
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:19 PM   #53
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

wtf are you on about troll? look at my results this year and in the past and retract that outragous statement.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:19 PM   #54
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Stage 8

Again it will be a break type attack that will get away. Won't be a sprint finish.

Garzelli won a similar stage to this last year. However, Gilbert will be on the attack I would think.

There is a guy who I have ear-marked for the win here. Marco Pinotti will be heading into his hometown. That's where the stage finishes. He will be in the break or like today a break will get away and then Columbia will catch it up and launch Pinotti.

If Pinotti doesn't get in the early break, I see Columbia doing what they did today and when the peloton catch the break 30 odd km from the finish, Pinotti will counter-attack.

Regardless Pinotti is a definate rider to have some coin on. I might leave my play just for him depending on the odds. It might be half unit play @ $51 for all I know and then spread another 1.5 units out with 4 or 5 other riders.

Stage 9 on Sunday is pancake and will be a sprint finish. Pettachi or Cavendish, your choice.
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:48 PM   #55
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Armstrong might make his move on Tuesday btw. That's his last chance of a stage win unless he goes in the break on the second last stage.

Armstrong knows that Levi will be in Pink at end of time trial. Tuesday's stage is a huge mountain stage. Armstrong will more than likely try a break that day and Levi will have other strong men around him.

Unless Armstrong tries tomorrow.

Sunday is a sprint stage with a circuit although Cancellara might break away as there are a lot of twists and turns at the end which will favour someone to break off the front and hold off a peloton going full speed. Monday is the rest day. Tuesday is a huge mountain stage. Wednesday is a break stage or possible sprint finish and Thursday is time trial.

Armstrong wanted a stage win basically and his chance of getting it is tomorrow or Tuesday. Considering he can't climb anymore, tomorrow is a real possibility.
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Old 05-15-2009, 04:01 PM   #56
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

What results to look on ? You are betting almost for everyone ... you said that Cavendish will win and he finished 432984923.
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Old 05-16-2009, 12:51 AM   #57
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Quote:
Originally Posted by tumbak View Post
What results to look on ? You are betting almost for everyone ... you said that Cavendish will win and he finished 432984923.
Pick up my earlier threads, arseclown. Paris-Nice, Milan San-Remo, Tour of California etc. Yes the classics didn't bring me great results and the start of the Giro is less than desirable, I am still on top for the year. More on this about half way down.

The stage before when I bet on about 12 different riders, I made a profit. This stage I recorded a loss but over the two stages, I still come out in the positive.

Today's stage, if I didn't bet on Boassen-Hagen as the cover if Cav couldn't make it considering Hagen's stage the day before, I would have been down 9.3 units and not 3.

You don't know what you're talking about clown. It's called covering your arse and making sure all bases are covered. If I didn't have as much on Cavendish, I would have profited the stage.

Today, I will be betting about 8 different guys and won't be staking more than 2 units. If one of them gets up, I get a profit. If they don't, I don't get a profit. If they don't, I'm only down 2 units.

It's better than putting 2 units on one rider out of 194 who you will think makes a breakaway and if he doesn't make a breakaway then you're screwed. Whereas if you have about 8 different riders, you can still miss the breakaway but you have 8 riders compared to 1.

Stages 6, 7 and 8 are near impossible to predict but I have managed to pluck the winner out in 2 of those stages. And with both those stages combined, I don't record a loss. Stage 8 is tonight so we'll see what happens tonight. When stages that breakaways happen you have two options. Back a few riders or back none. There is no big loss (if you have the money) and are willing to put up 2 - 5 units on a dozen or so riders.

BTW, Cavendish came about 11th on the stage in the chasing group 40 odd seconds down. Columbia's tactics were to send someone in that last break, they never intended to bring home a sprint finish. They didn't say it in those words, but the way Boassen-Hagen was talking, the directors had plans for it. I guarantee you that if Boassen-Hagen didn't get in that group, Columbia would have charged the peloton home and Cav would have probably taken the win. The only reason why Cav didn't lead that group home was that he was too busy celebrating Boasson-Hagen's win.

So what, I'm down just over 10 units in the Giro? Big deal! That's nothing. Leipheimer is still the key to my Giro success. If I can peg it back to level or a small profit, Levi will bring home the bacon and over 30 units profit will happen. So just because I'm having a crap Giro and had a crap classics campaign you think I don't know what I'm talking about? Everyone, no matter how well they know a particular sport always have bad runs.

Until you know what you're talking about in cycling and in particular betting in cycling, get the fuck out of this thread.
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Old 05-16-2009, 02:45 AM   #58
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

I won't be around later today I don't think to be able to post plays. So to avoid confusion, these are the riders I am backing today. When I get back home - probably after the kick off, I'll update at what odds I got them at. Sportingbet to this stage still don't have the riders I want in the market so I'll have to ring them up later and put it on the phone. I don't know what odds these guys are, but I'm on them when I get the odds.

These are the ones I know of. He is over 6 minutes down and won a similar stage to this last year.

1 unit Garzelli @ $7
.2 units Voeckler @ $26

These are the ones I don't know of but I will have money on when I get the odds this afternoon.

Marco Pinotti
Mark Cavendish
David Millar
Fabian Cancellara
Marcus Fothen
Mikhail Ignatiev
Francesco Bellotti

I'll update this later. I might be back before 7. If so it will be good. If not then yeah

Good luck!
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:45 AM   #59
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Final plays.

Again this is a hard stage to work out. But if you fluke it you stand to record a profit. It finishes in Pinotti's hometown. There is a hill 2km from the finish which might favour a Cancellara/Millar/Pinotti chrono move if the bunch is together. Or a break might stay away with them in. Or the sprinters teams might overcome the odds.

1 unit Garzelli to win @ $7
.2 units Voeckler @ $26
.7 units Pinotti @ $23
.2 units Grivko @ $26
.2 units Serpra @ $31
.2 units Bellotti @ $41
.2 units Cancellara @ $51
.1 units Mori @ $81
.1 units Cioni @ $51
.1 units Ignatiev @ $81
.1 units Fothen @ $101
.2 units Millar @ $126
.1 units Hulsmans @ $126

.2 units Millar to place @ $31


3.5 units staked

One of them gets up I record a profit! If one of them don't, bad luck, it's only 3.5 units. No big loss.
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Old 05-16-2009, 05:49 AM   #60
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Default Re: Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

Stuff it. I'll make it an even 4

.5 units Cavendish @ $21 - I will kick myself if he wins and I wasn't on it at those odds. There is still a possibility this could be a sprint finish.
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