3/10 De Bakker tb Seppi @ 4.1
De Bakker is a nice talent who has been having some trouble breaking through. He has all the talent, strokes and quality to reach the top 100 in no time but especially the mental aspect hasn't been good for him. Because of this he is mostly playing at Futures but has had his good results on Challenger level as well, especially on Dutch soil. Most of those results were on clay but by no means is he a typical claycourter with his powerful strokes and big serve. In front of the home crowd he has a chance for an upset and his good display against Tursunov last week (7-5 7-6 loss) is a good sign for me. Seppi of course is the far better player but also one that lacks specific qualities. He had a great run here last year but that was with far slower balls and on a far slower court. Seppi has little match practice under his belt with now 4 losses in a row. Nothing to be ashamed of after two encounters with Federer, one with Mathieu and one with Zverev but I can't see it as a possitive thing either. I expected De Bakker to be around 3.2 so this is very good value.
I know nothing about this Frenchman except that he hammered O.Rochus in qualies and had an easy win over Gicquel who is a very poor indoors player. Youzhny is just shite at the moment and needs to be faded while he's in this slump.
3.25 2u
De Bakker over Seppi
Gonna tail you here Timo. Seppi is 1-4 this season and can lose to anyone. He lost to clowns like Mannarino, Gregorc, Meffert and De Voest last year.
Flavio the magic clown is a challenger player and the Spaniard should have too much class here. He's a guy who is improving rapidly and should be a reliable enough type as a favourite this year in this type of event.
1.33 5u
MVA over Massu
I just have to fade the Chilean mug right now. He hasn't won a match this season and got trounced by out of form Calleri last week.
5/10 Muller tb Nishikori @ 2.19
Muller is once again getting underestimated here. With his great first serve, combined with a decent second serve which many big servers lack he is a tough player to beat. He has some good volleying skills but can also play a decent game from the baseline. He seems to be over the mental issues he had in the past, even though he will always have his occasional meltdown. Against Nishikori he is a great dog however. The Japanese teen is a great talent but also one with many ups and downs, which is logical. This is his first match after a wrist injury messed up his Australian season and playing a leftie big server with little or no rhythm is not something that he will like. He has been shaking against lefties in the past, having a 4-5 record and losing to players as Ryderstedt and Smeets back in 2007. Of course he was even younger then but still..it says something. Just like the dropped sets to Berrer and Falla.
This tournament is a nice build-up for Kei to defend his Delray Beach title in two weeks but an early exit is very likely. As said, a leftie big server as Müller is terrible to face in a first round, especially after previous injury problems.
The last time Isner and GGL met it was a 3 tb 3 hour match with GGL sneaking it after saving a heap of mp's. There were no breaks of serve. It was a surprising outcome given that GGL is a mental midget and Isner is normally a giant in final set breakers.
This will probably have a similar kind of scoreline so I don't see much value in Little John tbh.
Both Bellucci and Starace seem to be in very poor form. Starace's result against Monaco looks horrible while Bellucci was total shite against Chucho. His backhand is an awful, awful shot. Potato seems to have a decent enough record v lefties on clay and he gave Nadal a competitive match last year in Rome.
I wouldn't like to get ivolved in this one either though. Bel can possibly raise his game at home and won a challenger in brazil last year.
Andreev was 4-0 up against Simon last year in October and still lost the set last year is still running through my mind. How can Davydenko lose to someone like that?
I would take it at a retirement=void bookie though. Players have to play a certain amount of category 500 tournaments like Rotterdam and missing one beforehand could get you in trouble because you have to adjust your schedule. Especially with Davy you never know and a retirement wouldn't surprise me.
After what happened last time davy retired I reckon he could be shot by a sniper from the stands and he'd still finish the match.
Another small value play for me (might not be tomorrow)
Fat Albert over Ferrero
This should be a bit closer than the odds suggest and the 4-0 h2h to JC means nothing in this case. Montanes had a tricky opening match last week so I wouldn't say he's necessarily in poor form. You have to wonder about Ferrero's motivation in a tournament like this these days. Does this multi-millionaire hotel magnate have it in him to grind it out on a dodgy court in a shitty little event like this?
I can see why is Nishi fav there...he is clearly the better player...his return is good...nice doublehander...he sholudnt have too much problems with leftys(surprised to see his poor rec.)
he had some injury concerns...but thats not enough to fade him with Muller who is not a force in first rounds...confidence player i wolud say
no value in Muller IMO even if he wins
even if JCF decide to show up it sholud be tough for him out there
Monty improved his tennis last year...this is not only my opinion...saw few of his indoor matches at the end of last season and he is a better player than he was a year before
if hes in some form(didnt see his match with Cuevas) its gonna be tough for JCF
Posting 1st rd plays as I'm not sure when I'll next be about...
ABN AMRO R1
De Bakker +285 o Seppi (1.5)
Recouderc +200 o Youzhny (1.5)
Bolelli +1447 o Nadal (1/2)
Dimitrov +831 o Berdych (1)
Huta Galung +850 o Tsonga (1)
Llodra +116 o Karlovic (1)
Brasil Open
Vassallo Arguello +104 o Massu (1)
Gil -110 o Andujar (1.5)
Saretta +270 o Granollers (1)
Montanes +200 o JCF (1)
SAP Open R1
Querrey +123 o Baghdatis (1)
Karanusic +122 o Gremelmayr (1.5)
Serra +160 o Nieminen (1)
Fish +136 o Hewitt (1.5)
GGL +125 o Isner (1)
Muller +109 o Nishikori (1.5)
Youzhny over Recouderc 2/5 Obviously recent form is bad from Youzhny but did well here in 2007 and i'm sure he can get through against this low rated player whose results arent exactly thrilling
Kunitsyn over Rochus 4/11 Rochus is terrible on hard surfaces easy pick
Reynolds over Dent 5/6 should be a close one but Dent may still not be 100percent since his comeback
Don't know how anyone can back Youzhny at a price like that, just speculating that he can't get any worse. He lost 2-0 to Gabashvilli last week who then got thrashed by a very average Ancic in the next round. How bad a formline do you need?
I wouldn't care if Youzhny was playing Bilbo's grandmother in a wheelchair with 2 broken wheels right now, I'd still fade him at that price.
This guy never even faced a bp against Gicquel who is a pretty decent indoor player. And qualies are always dangerous because they have a couple of matches under their belts.
The 2 broken wheels can be replaced,only problem atm is she has a reoccuring shoulder injury that may take longer to heal and will be out of court for a few weeks or soo!
Tough draw with maybe Berdych and Tsonga in the 2nd round and QF. Fast low bouncing surface according to Murray and much lighter balls than in previous years apparently.
1.5 3u
Del Potro to win San Jose
The Mickey Mouse King and the best player in the field. He doesn't gain anything points wise for winning here so he might start to become less motivated in this sort of tournament but he's worth a shot anyway.
4.33 0.75u e/w
Granollers over Saretta
Flavio the magic clown is a challenger player and the Spaniard should have too much class here. He's a guy who is improving rapidly and should be a reliable enough type as a favourite this year in this type of event.
1.33 5u
MVA over Massu
I just have to fade the Chilean mug right now. He hasn't won a match this season and got trounced by out of form Calleri last week.
There is a big motivation edge in the Nishikori vs Muller match. Nishikori's points from his win at Delray Beach will come off this week, while Muller isn't exactly a player who is motivated to play at this type of tournaments. In fact, he is 4-11 on his last 15 matches in regular ATP tournaments, including his wonderful 2-6 4-6 performance against Christophe Rochus in Lyon last season
Recouderc looks a good bet today for reasons Henry stated. Also think Clement looks good for a small punt over Tursunov. Clement breezed through qualies serving well while Tursunov looks out of sorts and not in the greatest form. The only thing holding me back is the fact that Tursunov has the better indoor results and record.
My stupid book(Bookmaker) has just opened the line for the Youzhny match making him a +145 underdog and -170 for a relative outsider in Recouderc...that makes this fucking bet worthless now...they must have been reading all the hyped up banter on this match and adjusted the lines...I should bet Youzhny large to cram it up their arse now...
Now they reversed the line completely making Youzhny the fav at -170...what assholes...
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