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Old 02-08-2009, 09:37 PM   #1
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Default Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

3/10 De Bakker tb Seppi @ 4.1
De Bakker is a nice talent who has been having some trouble breaking through. He has all the talent, strokes and quality to reach the top 100 in no time but especially the mental aspect hasn't been good for him. Because of this he is mostly playing at Futures but has had his good results on Challenger level as well, especially on Dutch soil. Most of those results were on clay but by no means is he a typical claycourter with his powerful strokes and big serve. In front of the home crowd he has a chance for an upset and his good display against Tursunov last week (7-5 7-6 loss) is a good sign for me. Seppi of course is the far better player but also one that lacks specific qualities. He had a great run here last year but that was with far slower balls and on a far slower court. Seppi has little match practice under his belt with now 4 losses in a row. Nothing to be ashamed of after two encounters with Federer, one with Mathieu and one with Zverev but I can't see it as a possitive thing either. I expected De Bakker to be around 3.2 so this is very good value.
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:39 PM   #2
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

don't mind when they're scheduled

CUEVAS over Hernandez @1.83, 3 units
DABUL over Capdeville @2.25, 2 unit
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Recouderc over Youzhny

I know nothing about this Frenchman except that he hammered O.Rochus in qualies and had an easy win over Gicquel who is a very poor indoors player. Youzhny is just shite at the moment and needs to be faded while he's in this slump.

3.25 2u

De Bakker over Seppi

Gonna tail you here Timo. Seppi is 1-4 this season and can lose to anyone. He lost to clowns like Mannarino, Gregorc, Meffert and De Voest last year.

1u 4.0
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:56 PM   #4
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

5/10 Muller tb Nishikori @ 2.19
Muller is once again getting underestimated here. With his great first serve, combined with a decent second serve which many big servers lack he is a tough player to beat. He has some good volleying skills but can also play a decent game from the baseline. He seems to be over the mental issues he had in the past, even though he will always have his occasional meltdown. Against Nishikori he is a great dog however. The Japanese teen is a great talent but also one with many ups and downs, which is logical. This is his first match after a wrist injury messed up his Australian season and playing a leftie big server with little or no rhythm is not something that he will like. He has been shaking against lefties in the past, having a 4-5 record and losing to players as Ryderstedt and Smeets back in 2007. Of course he was even younger then but still..it says something. Just like the dropped sets to Berrer and Falla.

This tournament is a nice build-up for Kei to defend his Delray Beach title in two weeks but an early exit is very likely. As said, a leftie big server as Müller is terrible to face in a first round, especially after previous injury problems.
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Old 02-08-2009, 09:58 PM   #5
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Any opinions on Isner and Starace? Leaning towards them at odds of 1.77 and 1.92
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:16 PM   #6
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Davydenko to defeat Andreev @1.44

Andreev was 4-0 up against Simon last year in October and still lost the set last year is still running through my mind. How can Davydenko lose to someone like that?
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:25 PM   #7
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

I would take it at a retirement=void bookie though. Players have to play a certain amount of category 500 tournaments like Rotterdam and missing one beforehand could get you in trouble because you have to adjust your schedule. Especially with Davy you never know and a retirement wouldn't surprise me.
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:25 PM   #8
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Recouderc to beat Youzhny @ 3.25

Just placed with WillHill phone betting, it's suspended on their website.

Biggish bet for me!
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:30 PM   #9
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
Any opinions on Isner and Starace? Leaning towards them at odds of 1.77 and 1.92
The last time Isner and GGL met it was a 3 tb 3 hour match with GGL sneaking it after saving a heap of mp's. There were no breaks of serve. It was a surprising outcome given that GGL is a mental midget and Isner is normally a giant in final set breakers.
This will probably have a similar kind of scoreline so I don't see much value in Little John tbh.

Both Bellucci and Starace seem to be in very poor form. Starace's result against Monaco looks horrible while Bellucci was total shite against Chucho. His backhand is an awful, awful shot. Potato seems to have a decent enough record v lefties on clay and he gave Nadal a competitive match last year in Rome.
I wouldn't like to get ivolved in this one either though. Bel can possibly raise his game at home and won a challenger in brazil last year.
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:35 PM   #10
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
I would take it at a retirement=void bookie though. Players have to play a certain amount of category 500 tournaments like Rotterdam and missing one beforehand could get you in trouble because you have to adjust your schedule. Especially with Davy you never know and a retirement wouldn't surprise me.
After what happened last time davy retired I reckon he could be shot by a sniper from the stands and he'd still finish the match.

Another small value play for me (might not be tomorrow)

Fat Albert over Ferrero

This should be a bit closer than the odds suggest and the 4-0 h2h to JC means nothing in this case. Montanes had a tricky opening match last week so I wouldn't say he's necessarily in poor form. You have to wonder about Ferrero's motivation in a tournament like this these days. Does this multi-millionaire hotel magnate have it in him to grind it out on a dodgy court in a shitty little event like this?

1u 3.0 (since cut to 2.75)

Could've got 3.5 for a while on betfair
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:48 PM   #11
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Chinaski View Post
The last time Isner and GGL met it was a 3 tb 3 hour match with GGL sneaking it after saving a heap of mp's. There were no breaks of serve. It was a surprising outcome given that GGL is a mental midget and Isner is normally a giant in final set breakers.
This will probably have a similar kind of scoreline so I don't see much value in Little John tbh.

Both Bellucci and Starace seem to be in very poor form. Starace's result against Monaco looks horrible while Bellucci was total shite against Chucho. His backhand is an awful, awful shot. Potato seems to have a decent enough record v lefties on clay and he gave Nadal a competitive match last year in Rome.
I wouldn't like to get ivolved in this one either though. Bel can possibly raise his game at home and won a challenger in brazil last year.
Cheers for that mate. Will probably skip them, even though the Isner bet still looks like a decent shot. Will decide later
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:53 PM   #12
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

I can see why is Nishi fav there...he is clearly the better player...his return is good...nice doublehander...he sholudnt have too much problems with leftys(surprised to see his poor rec.)
he had some injury concerns...but thats not enough to fade him with Muller who is not a force in first rounds...confidence player i wolud say
no value in Muller IMO even if he wins
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:53 PM   #13
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Granollers @ 1.29 seems a gift.
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Old 02-08-2009, 10:54 PM   #14
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Chinaski View Post
After what happened last time davy retired I reckon he could be shot by a sniper from the stands and he'd still finish the match.

Another small value play for me (might not be tomorrow)

Fat Albert over Ferrero

This should be a bit closer than the odds suggest and the 4-0 h2h to JC means nothing in this case. Montanes had a tricky opening match last week so I wouldn't say he's necessarily in poor form. You have to wonder about Ferrero's motivation in a tournament like this these days. Does this multi-millionaire hotel magnate have it in him to grind it out on a dodgy court in a shitty little event like this?

1u 3.0 (since cut to 2.75)

Could've got 3.5 for a while on betfair
GL here Henry but if JCF does decide to show up and grind it out I can only see a win for him. I dont think it is worth the risk based on speculation. The price drop is something to be aware of though. Thats a good sign for you.
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Old 02-08-2009, 11:01 PM   #15
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Default Re: Rollin' in Rotterdam Monday

even if JCF decide to show up it sholud be tough for him out there
Monty improved his tennis last year...this is not only my opinion...saw few of his indoor matches at the end of last season and he is a better player than he was a year before
if hes in some form(didnt see his match with Cuevas) its gonna be tough for JCF
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